5 research outputs found

    Inferred regional contact patterns at home.

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    <p>Countries of the world were group into 7 regions (East Asia & Pacific, Europe & Central Asia, Latin America & Caribbean, Middle East & North Africa, North America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa). The regional mean age-specific contact patterns at home (inferred) of individuals aged 5–10 (first column), 25–30 (second column) and 55–60 (third column) years were represented as bars.</p

    Population and household age distribution, and age-specific contacts at home.

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    <p>The population pyramids by age and gender (panels a–c), household age matrices (panels d–f) and age-specific contact patterns (panels g–i) are presented for Germany (first column, as a representative of the POLYMOD countries), Bolivia (second column, as a representative of DHS) and South Africa (third column, as a representative of ROW). The population pyramids, panels a–c, and household age matrices (for only POLYMOD and DHS), panels d–e, are observed data. The age-specific contacts at home for Germany (g) is estimated from our hierarchical model. The household age matrix for South Africa (f) and the age-specific contacts at home for Bolivia (h) and South Africa (i) were projected using the described methods. Darker color intensities indicate more likely events i.e. greater tendency of having a household member of that age, higher proclivity of making the age-specific contact.</p

    Age-specific final epidemic size and percentage reduction.

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    <p>The age-specific final epidemic size and percentage reduction of infection for Germany (first column), Bolivia (second column) and South Africa (third column) are shown for the three interventions: No intervention (sum of orange and pink/blue bars), School closure and social distancing of younger individuals (blue bars) and Workplace distancing (pink bars) for two epidemics with <i>R</i><sub>0</sub> of 1.2 and 1.5. The percentage reduction of infection for the various intervention and <i>R</i><sub>0</sub> values are represented by the black lines.</p

    Age-specific contact patterns by location.

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    <p>The age-specific contact patterns at home (panels a–c), at the workplace (panels d–f), in school (panels g–i) and at other locations (panels j–l) are projected from the model. The contact pattern at all locations (panels m–o) is the sum across the four locations (home, work, school and others). Contact matrices for Bolivia (DHS country; in panels b,e,h,k) and South Africa (ROW country; in panels c,f,i,l) were projected and the age-specific mean contact rates for Germany (part of the POLYMOD; in panels a,d,g,j) were estimated from the German contact data. A comparison between the German empirical and modelled estimates can be found in the <b><a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1005697#pcbi.1005697.s001" target="_blank">S1 Text</a></b>. Darker color intensities indicate higher proclivity of making the age-specific contact.</p

    Methodology and data.

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    <p>Overview of the data sources and model framework in the manuscript is presented in this flow chart. The categories of the 152 countries are depicted on the world map (i.e. POLYMOD, Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), and Rest of the World (ROW) countries) and their data sources are listed in the table. A summary of the methodology is represented by the model framework: (A) POLYMOD model, (B) construction age-structured populations at home, work, and school in the 152 countries, and (C) projection of global estimates.</p
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