Nonlinear projective filtering I: Background in chaos theory

We derive a locally projective noise reduction scheme for nonlinear time series using concepts from deterministic dynamical systems, or chaos theory. We will demonstrate its effectiveness with an example with known deterministic dynamics and discuss methods for the verification of the results in the case of an unknown deterministic system.Comment: 4 pages, PS figures, needs nolta.st

Nonlinear projective filtering I: Application to real time series

We discuss applications of nonlinear filtering of time series by locally linear phase space projections. Noise can be reduced whenever the error due to the manifold approximation is smaller than the noise in the system. Examples include the real time extraction of the fetal electrocardiogram from abdominal recordings.Comment: 4 pages, PS figures, needs nolta.st

Continuous-time random walk theory of superslow diffusion

Superslow diffusion, i.e., the long-time diffusion of particles whose mean-square displacement (variance) grows slower than any power of time, is studied in the framework of the decoupled continuous-time random walk model. We show that this behavior of the variance occurs when the complementary cumulative distribution function of waiting times is asymptotically described by a slowly varying function. In this case, we derive a general representation of the laws of superslow diffusion for both biased and unbiased versions of the model and, to illustrate the obtained results, consider two particular classes of waiting-time distributions.Comment: 4 page

Geometric and projection effects in Kramers-Moyal analysis

Kramers-Moyal coefficients provide a simple and easily visualized method with which to analyze stochastic time series, particularly nonlinear ones. One mechanism that can affect the estimation of the coefficients is geometric projection effects. For some biologically-inspired examples, these effects are predicted and explored with a non-stochastic projection operator method, and compared with direct numerical simulation of the systems' Langevin equations. General features and characteristics are identified, and the utility of the Kramers-Moyal method discussed. Projections of a system are in general non-Markovian, but here the Kramers-Moyal method remains useful, and in any case the primary examples considered are found to be close to Markovian.Comment: Submitted to Phys. Rev.

Limiting distributions of continuous-time random walks with superheavy-tailed waiting times

We study the long-time behavior of the scaled walker (particle) position associated with decoupled continuous-time random walk which is characterized by superheavy-tailed distribution of waiting times and asymmetric heavy-tailed distribution of jump lengths. Both the scaling function and the corresponding limiting probability density are determined for all admissible values of tail indexes describing the jump distribution. To analytically investigate the limiting density function, we derive a number of different representations of this function and, by this way, establish its main properties. We also develop an efficient numerical method for computing the limiting probability density and compare our analytical and numerical results.Comment: 35 pages, 4 figure

Analysis of stochastic time series in the presence of strong measurement noise

A new approach for the analysis of Langevin-type stochastic processes in the presence of strong measurement noise is presented. For the case of Gaussian distributed, exponentially correlated, measurement noise it is possible to extract the strength and the correlation time of the noise as well as polynomial approximations of the drift and diffusion functions from the underlying Langevin equation.Comment: 12 pages, 10 figures; corrected typos and reference

How does the quality of a prediction depend on the magnitude of the events under study?

We investigate the predictability of extreme events in time series. The focus of this work is to understand, under which circumstances large events are better predictable than smaller events. Therefore we use a simple prediction algorithm based on precursory structures which are identified via the maximum likelihood principle. Using theses precursory structures we predict threshold crossings in autocorrelated processes of order one, which are either Gaussian, exponentially or Pareto distributed. The receiver operating characteristic curve is used as a measure for the quality of predictions we find that the dependence on the event magnitude is closely linked to the probability distribution function of the underlying stochastic process. We evaluate this dependence on the probability distribution function numerically and in the Gaussian case also analytically. Furthermore, we study predictions of threshold crossings in correlated data, i.e., velocity increments of a free jet flow. The velocity increments in the free jet flow are in dependence on the time scale either asymptotically Gaussian or asymptotically exponential distributed. If we assume that the optimal precursory structures are used to make the predictions, we find that large threshold crossings are for all different types of distributions better predictable. These results are in contrast to previous results, obtained for the prediction of large increments, which showed a strong dependence on the probability distribution function of the underlying process

Statistical inference of one-dimensional persistent nonlinear time series and application to predictions

We introduce a method for reconstructing macroscopic models of one-dimensional stochastic processes with long-range correlations from sparsely sampled time series by combining fractional calculus and discrete-time Langevin equations. The method is illustrated for the ARFIMA(1,d,0) process and a nonlinear autoregressive toy model with multiplicative noise. We reconstruct a model for daily mean temperature data recorded at Potsdam, Germany and use it to predict the first-frost date by computing the mean first passage time of the reconstructed process and the 0 degrees C temperature line, illustrating the potential of long-memory models for predictions in the sub seasonal-to-seasonal range