Hybrid statistical and mechanistic mathematical model guides mobile health intervention for chronic pain

Nearly a quarter of visits to the Emergency Department are for conditions that could have been managed via outpatient treatment; improvements that allow patients to quickly recognize and receive appropriate treatment are crucial. The growing popularity of mobile technology creates new opportunities for real-time adaptive medical intervention, and the simultaneous growth of big data sources allows for preparation of personalized recommendations. Here we focus on the reduction of chronic suffering in the sickle cell disease community. Sickle cell disease is a chronic blood disorder in which pain is the most frequent complication. There currently is no standard algorithm or analytical method for real-time adaptive treatment recommendations for pain. Furthermore, current state-of-the-art methods have difficulty in handling continuous-time decision optimization using big data. Facing these challenges, in this study we aim to develop new mathematical tools for incorporating mobile technology into personalized treatment plans for pain. We present a new hybrid model for the dynamics of subjective pain that consists of a dynamical systems approach using differential equations to predict future pain levels, as well as a statistical approach tying system parameters to patient data (both personal characteristics and medication response history). Pilot testing of our approach suggests that it has significant potential to predict pain dynamics given patients' reported pain levels and medication usages. With more abundant data, our hybrid approach should allow physicians to make personalized, data driven recommendations for treating chronic pain.Comment: 13 pages, 15 figures, 5 table

Inference for change-plane regression

A key challenge in analyzing the behavior of change-plane estimators is that the objective function has multiple minimizers. Two estimators are proposed to deal with this non-uniqueness. For each estimator, an n-rate of convergence is established, and the limiting distribution is derived. Based on these results, we provide a parametric bootstrap procedure for inference. The validity of our theoretical results and the finite sample performance of the bootstrap are demonstrated through simulation experiments. We illustrate the proposed methods to latent subgroup identification in precision medicine using the ACTG175 AIDS study data

Kappa statistic for clustered dichotomous responses from physicians and patients

The bootstrap method for estimating the standard error of the kappa statistic in the presence of clustered data is evaluated. Such data arise, for example, in assessing agreement between physicians and their patients regarding their understanding of the physician-patient interaction and discussions. We propose a computationally efficient procedure for generating correlated dichotomous responses for physicians and assigned patients for simulation studies. The simulation result demonstrates that the proposed bootstrap method produces better estimate of the standard error and better coverage performance compared to the asymptotic standard error estimate that ignores dependence among patients within physicians with at least a moderately large number of clusters. An example of an application to a coronary heart disease prevention study is presented

Twin-Singleton Differences in Neonatal Brain Structure

Twin studies suggest that global and regional brain volumes are highly heritable. However, estimates of heritability vary across development. Given that all twin studies are open to the potential criticism of non-generalizability due to differences in intrauterine environment between twins and singletons, these age effects may reflect the influence of perinatal environmental factors, which are unique to twins and which may be especially evident early in life. To address this question, we compared brain volumes and the relationship of brain volumes to gestational age in 136 singletons (67 male, 69 female) and 154 twins (75 male, 79 female; 82 DZ, 72 MZ) who had received high resolution MRI scans of the brain in the first month of life. Intracranial volume, total white matter, and ventricle volumes did not differ between twins and singletons. However, cerebrospinal fluid and frontal white matter volume was greater in twins compared to singletons. While gray matter volumes at MRI did not differ between groups, the slope of the relationship between total and cortical gray matter and gestational age at the MRI scan was steeper in MZ twins compared to DZ twins. Post-hoc analyses suggested that gray matter development is delayed in MZ twins in utero and that they experience ‘catch-up’ growth in the first month of life. These differences should be taken into account when interpreting and designing studies in the early postnatal period

Discordance of prenatal and neonatal brain development in twins

Discordance of birth weight has been observed in twin pairs, though little is known about prenatal and early neonatal discordance of head and brain size, and the role that zygosity and chorionicity play in discordances of early brain development in twins

Prenatal Mild Ventriculomegaly Predicts Abnormal Development of the Neonatal Brain

Many psychiatric and neurodevelopmental disorders are associated with mild enlargement of the lateral ventricles thought to have origins in prenatal brain development. Little is known about development of the lateral ventricles and the relationship of prenatal lateral ventricle enlargement with postnatal brain development

Effects of a 6-month aerobic exercise intervention on brain morphology in women with breast cancer receiving aromatase inhibitor therapy: a sub-study of the EPICC trial

ObjectivePhysical exercise may increase brain volume and cortical thickness in late adulthood. However, few studies have examined the possibility for exercise to influence brain morphology in women treated for breast cancer. We conducted a nested sub-study within a randomized clinical trial to examine whether 6 months of moderate-intensity aerobic exercise in postmenopausal women with early-stage breast cancer influences brain morphology.MethodsWe included twenty-eight postmenopausal women newly diagnosed with Stage 0-IIIa breast cancer (M age = 62.96 ± 5.40) who were randomized to either 45–60 min of supervised aerobic exercise 3 days/week (n = 16) or usual care (n = 12). Before beginning aromatase inhibitor aromatase inhibitor therapy, and the exercise intervention, and again at 6-month follow-up, volumetric and cortical thickness measures were derived from magnetic resonance imaging scans.ResultsThere were no significant intervention effects on brain volume and cortical thickness. However, greater average exercise intensity (%) during the intervention was associated with greater post-intervention cortical volume, mean cortical thickness, precentral gyrus thickness, and superior parietal thickness (all p < 0.05). Finally, total supervised exercise time was associated with higher precentral gyrus thickness after the intervention (p = 0.042, R2 = 0.263).ConclusionThe exercise intervention did not significantly affect brain volumes and cortical thickness compared to the control group. However, positive associations were found between exercise intensity and brain morphology changes after the 6-month intervention, indicating that exercise may reduce the vulnerability of the brain to the deleterious effects of breast cancer and its treatment

Cardiorespiratory fitness levels and body mass index of pre-adolescent children and older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic

IntroductionThe social and behavioral effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have impacted the health and physiology of most people, including those never diagnosed with COVID-19. While the impact of the pandemic has been felt across the lifespan, its effects on cardiorespiratory fitness (commonly considered a reflection of total body health) of older adults and children may be particularly profound due to social distancing and stay-at-home advisories, as well as the closure of sport facilities and non-essential businesses. The objective of this investigation was to leverage baseline data from two ongoing clinical trials to determine if cardiorespiratory fitness and body mass index were different during COVID-19 relative to before COVID-19 in older adults and children.MethodsHealthy older individuals (N = 593; 65–80 years) and 200 typically developing children (8–10 years) completed a graded maximal exercise test and had their height and weight measured.ResultsResults revealed that older adults and children tested during COVID-19 had significantly lower cardiorespiratory fitness levels than those tested before COVID-19 shutdowns (older adults: 30% lower; children: 53% lower; p's ≤ 0.001). In addition, older adults and children tested during COVID-19 had significantly higher BMI (older adults: 31.34 ± 0.57 kg/m2, p = 0.004; children: 19.27 ± 0.44 kg/m2, p = 0.05) than those tested before COVID-19 shutdowns (older adults: 29.51 ± 0.26 kg/m2, children: 18.13 ± 0.35 kg/m2). However, these differences in BMI did not remain significant when controlling for cardiorespiratory fitness.DiscussionResults from this investigation indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic, and behavior changes taken to reduce potential exposure, may have led to lower cardiorespiratory fitness levels in older adults and children, as well as higher body mass index. These findings provide relevant public health information as lower cardiorespiratory fitness levels and higher body mass indexes recorded during the pandemic could have far-reaching and protracted health consequences. Public health guidance is needed to encourage physical activity to maintain cardiorespiratory fitness and healthy body composition.Clinical trial registrationOlder adults: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02875301, identifier: NCT02875301; Children: https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03592238, identifier: NCT03592238

Lifetime estrogen exposure and domain-specific cognitive performance: results from the IGNITE study

IntroductionDisruptions in estrogen exposure (i.e., surgically induced menopause) have been linked to poorer cognitive aging and dementia risk. Hormone therapy use (e.g., birth control, menopausal hormone therapy) has shown mixed associations with cognitive performance, possibly due to limited cognitive test batteries. To address previous inconsistencies, we investigated baseline data from Investigating Gains in Neurocognition in an Intervention Trial of Exercise (IGNITE). We hypothesized that (1) oophorectomy prior to natural menopause would be associated with poorer cognitive performance, (2) timing and duration of birth control and menopausal hormone therapy would influence associations with cognitive performance, and (3) APOE4 carrier status would interact with oophorectomy and hormone therapy to influence cognitive performance.MethodsIn 461 post-menopausal females (M age = 69.6) we assessed oophorectomy and hormone therapy use to examine associations with the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and factor-analytically derived composite scores for episodic memory, processing speed, working memory, executive function/attentional control, and visuospatial processing.ResultsHypothesis (1) We did not observe associations between oophorectomy prior to natural menopause and poorer cognitive performance. However, hormone therapy use, started on average within 2 years of oophorectomy, was associated with better episodic memory (β = 0.106, p = 0.02), working memory (β = 0.120, p = 0.005), and visuospatial processing (β = 0.095, p = 0.03). Hypothesis (2) Birth control use was associated with better performance on the MoCA (β = 0.093, p = 0.04), working memory (β = 0.102, p = 0.02), and executive function/attentional control (β = 0.103, p = 0.02). However, duration and timing of birth control and menopausal hormone therapy were not associated with cognitive performance. Hypothesis (3) We did not observe significant interactions between APOE4 status and oophorectomy or hormone therapy in their associations with cognitive performance.DiscussionOur results suggest exposure to estrogen during adulthood, specifically birth control and hormone therapy among women undergoing pre-menopausal oophorectomy, benefits cognitive function in older adulthood. Our comprehensive cognitive battery allowed us to examine cognitive function with a high degree of granularity. Future work should evaluate causal mechanisms of associations between lifetime estrogen exposure and later life cognitive function