49 research outputs found

    International Intertemporal Solvency in OECD Countries: Evidence From Panel Unit Root

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    The purpose of this study is to investigate the sustainability of current account of 22 OECD countries by employing Liu and Tanner (1996) testing procedure. The procedure used here is to examine stationarity of current account. Using ADF unit root test on single time series, it is found that current account of most OECD countries have unit root. This outcome, however, might be due to the generally low power of this test. The aim of this paper is to reconsider this issue by exploiting the extra information provided by the combination of the time-series and cross-sectional data and the subsequent power advantages of panel data unit root tests. We apply the test advocated by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997). According to estimation results current account deficits in OECD countries are sustainable.panel data unit-root test; current account; solvency

    An aggregate import demand function for Turkey: a cointegration analysis

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    This paper estimates an aggregate import demand function for Turkey during the period 1994:1-2003:12. In our empirical analysis of the aggregate import demand function for Turkey, cointegration and error correction modeling approaches have been used. Empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long run or equilibrium relationship among real quantities of imports, relative import price and real GNP.

    Sustainability of Current Account for Turkey: Intertemporal Solvency Approach

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    This paper examines sustainability of current account for Turkey during the period 1987:1-2002:4. Using the usual intertemporal borrowing constraint, we have tested for a long-run relationship between two Turkey exports measures and imports measures (measured real terms and percentage to real GDP) using quarterly data. In our empirical analysis of the sustainability of current account for Turkey, cointegration approaches have been used. Empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long-run or equilibrium relationship among real exports and imports and their percentage to real GDP and their estimated cointegration factor, , is very close to 1. The empirical findings suggest that the current account of Turkey is sustainable in the long run.Current account deficits; Sustainability; Intertemporal budget constraint

    An Empirical Work On Catch Up By The Diffusion Of Technology

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    The main idea of catch up hypothesis is how rapidly follower economies tend to catch the leader since imitation and implementation of discoveries are cheaper than innovation. Therefore imitation and implementation of discoveries tends to generate convergence even though diminishing returns to capital or to R&D do not apply. If the diffusion of technology occurs gradually, then we get another reason to predict a pattern of convergence across economies, which we estimate in this study. The estimation indicates that follower economies tend to catch up the leader. Hence, we could say imitation and implementation of discoveries generate convergence in an empirically

    Is Per Capita Real GDP Stationary in the OECD Countries? Evidence from a Panel Unit Root Test

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    This paper examines the stationarity of real GDP per capita for 27 OECD countries during the period 1950 to 2004. Using ADF unit root test on single time series, it is found that real GDP per capita series of most OECD countries have unit root. This outcome, however, might be due to the generally low power of this test. The aim of this paper is to reconsider this issue by exploiting the extra information provided by the combination of the time-series and cross-sectional data and the subsequent power advantages of panel data unit root tests. We apply the test advocated by Im, Pesaran and Shin (1997). The results overwhelmingly indicate that real GDP per capita series among OECD countries are nonstationary.Real GDP per capita, Stationary, Panel Unit root tests, OECD

    Foreign Direct Investment and Growth: An Empiricial Investigation Based on Cross-Country Comparison

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    This paper investigates empirically the impact of FDI on economic growth of Turkey and Pakistan over the period of 1975-2004. To analyse the causal relationship between FDI and economic growth, the Engle-Granger cointegration and Granger causality tests are used. It is found that these two variables are cointegrated for both countries studied. Our empirical findings suggest that it is GDP that causes FDI in the case of Pakistan, while there is strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between the two variables for Turkey.Economic growth, foreign direct investment, Granger causality

    Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis

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    This paper examines the causal relationship between energy consumption and economic growth for Turkey during 1971–2006. We employed two multivariate models, namely demand model and production model, based on vector error correction model. Then, we tested Granger causality after finding cointegration among variables for the both models. The results indicate that energy consumption and economic growth are cointegrated and there is bidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth and vice versa. This means that an increase in energy consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further energy consumption. Consequently, we conclude that energy is a limiting factor to economic growth in Turkey and, hence, shocks to energy supply will have a negative impact on economic growth and vice versa.Energy consumption, Economic growth, Causality, Cointegration, Turkey

    Devaluation and trade balance in Latin American countries

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    The aim of this paper is to examine effectiveness of devaluation on the trade balance in four countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru. We use the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and impulse response function to estimate the long-run and shortrun effects of devaluation on the trade balance. The estimated results suggest that depreciation improve the trade balance in the long run for the case of Argentina and Peru, and in the short-run there has been J-curve in Argentina and Peru. In addition, the cointegration is found among the four variables (trade balance, domestic income, foreign incomes and real exchange rate) in the case of Argentina and Peru. The results also indicate that there is no cointegration relationship between these variables for Brazil and Mexico. The conclusion of the paper is that the evidence of the J-curve pattern was found for Argentina and Peru only

    Devalvacija i trgovačka bilanca u zemljama Latinske Amerike

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    The aim of this paper is to examine effectiveness of devaluation on the trade balance in four countries: Argentina, Brazil, Mexico and Peru. We use the Johansen-Juselius cointegration test and impulse response function to estimate the long-run and shortrun effects of devaluation on the trade balance. The estimated results suggest that depreciation improve the trade balance in the long run for the case of Argentina and Peru, and in the short-run there has been J-curve in Argentina and Peru. In addition, the cointegration is found among the four variables (trade balance, domestic income, foreign incomes and real exchange rate) in the case of Argentina and Peru. The results also indicate that there is no cointegration relationship between these variables for Brazil and Mexico. The conclusion of the paper is that the evidence of the J-curve pattern was found for Argentina and Peru only.Cilj ovoga rada je ispitati djelotvornost devalvacije na trgovačku bilancu u četiri zemlje: Argentini, Brazilu, Meksiku i Peruu. Primijenjen je Johansen-Juselius kointegracijski test i funkcija spontane reakcije da bi se procijenili dugoročni i kratkoročni učinci devalvacije na trgovačku bilancu. Dobiveni rezultati pokazuju da deprecijacija, dugoročno, poboljšava trgovačku bilancu u slučaju Argentine i Perua, te da je u istim zemljama, kratkoročno prisutna J – krivulja. Nadalje, postoji kointegracija četiriju varijabli (trgovačke bilance, domaćeg prihoda, stranih prihoda i stvarnog intervalutnog tečaja) u slučaju Argentine i Perua. Rezultati također pokazuju da u slučaju Brazila i Meksika nema kointegracijskog odnosa ovih varijabli. Stoga se u ovom radu zaključuje da je dokaz o J-krivulji prisutan samo u Argentini i Peruu
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