Suomen ulkomaankaupan erikoistuminen: Keiden kanssa kilpailemme?

We analyse the exports of industrialised countries in the 1996-2006 period. First, there is a short discussion of the theory of international trade and its recent theoretical developments. After that we have analysed the long-run development of the structure of Finnish exports, and its structure relative to that of other industrialised countries after 1996. The export structure of Sweden is by far the most similar with that of Finland. We also analysed Finland's share in the total exports of industrialised countries and Finland's share in the total exports in terms of its most important export products. Finland's share in total exports has declined a little, but within the group of "old industrialised countries" its share has remained unchanged. Using the Lafay index, we determine that Finland is strongly specialised in the exports of mobile phones and paper products. Furthermore, Finland is specialised in the exports of high-tech products as determined by the OECD. The share of mobile phones in these exports is 70 per cent, however. Finally, we have studied how the share of value added in the value of production in Finnish manufacturing sectors has changed between the 1970s and 2005. On average the ratio has remained relatively stable, but during the past few years it has declined somewhat. There are significant differences between the manufacturing sectors in this respect

Convergence of real GDP per capita in the EU15 area: How do the accession countires fit it?

The EU15 countries’ real GDP per capita levels adjusted for purchasing power have converged in 1960-2001. Convergence has occurred in two spells, in 1960-73 and 1986-2001, with an interim period of stagnation. We analyse both σ and β convergence and discuss the impact of EU membership, trade and investment. We also analyse how seven accession countries fit into the historical picture of the EU15 area. The CEE countries are well positioned to catch up with the incumbent EU countries. After the mid-1990s an increase in productivity and high investment rates have supported economic growth in the accession countries. Still, the experience of the EU15 countries shows that convergence cannot be taken for granted. – Convergence ; EU ; Accession countries ; EnlargementEU15-maiden henkeä kohti lasketut reaaliset, ostovoimakorjatut bruttokansantuotteet ovat konvergoituneet vuosina 1960-2001. Konvergoitumista on esiintynyt kahdessa jaksossa, vuosina 1960-73 ja 1986-2001, joita erotti ajanjakso, jolloin konvergoitumista ei tapahtunut. Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan sekä σ- että β-konvergenssia sekä lisäksi EU-jäsenyyden, ulkomaankaupan ja investointien vaikutusta konvergoitumiseen. Tarkastelemme myös sitä, kuinka seitsemän EU-hakijamaan talouskehitys sopii EU15-maiden historialliseen kehitykseen. Hakijamaiden mahdollisuudet kuroa elintasokuilua EU15-maiden kanssa pienemmäksi näyttävät hyviltä. 1990-luvun puolivälin jälkeen tuottavuuden kasvu ja korkea investointiaste ovat tukeneet talouskasvua hakijamaissa. EU15-maiden kokemukset osoittavat kuitenkin, ettei konvergenssia voida kuitenkaan pitää itsestäänselvyytenä. – Konvergenssi ; EU ; hakijamaat ; itälaajenemine

Productivity, hours worked, and tax/benefit systems in Europe and beyond

We analyse the development of labour productivity and hours worked by the working-aged population in the EU25 countries and other OECD countries in 1960-2004. We emphasise the possible effects of taxes, benefits and other labour-market variables. First, we describe the trends in productivity and hours worked especially in the EU15 countries relative to the United States. Then we use both cross-section analyses of the 1995-2004 period and pooled least squares panel data analyses of the 1960-2004 period to explain the developments. Taxes and gross replacement rates do not correlate with productivity growth. Instead, productivity growth is influenced positively by investment into fixed assets, R&D and ICT, higher levels of education, and lower product market regulation. According to the results, taxes and gross replacement rates do have a negative effect on the average number of hours worked. Also the ratio between collective bargaining coverage and trade union density as well as higher product market regulation seem to have a negative effect on the number of hours worked

Integration and conditional convergence in the enlarged EU area

Using pooled mean-group estimation we first analyse conditional convergence in the EU15 area in 1960-2002. Conditional convergence is well documented for the EU15 countries and deeper European integration is mostly shown to have fastened convergence. Also higher investment, lower public consumption and lower inflation have increased GDP growth. Then we apply the same method in order to estimate the conditional convergence of the new EU member countries of Central and Eastern Europe towards the average of the EU15 countries since 1993. The CEE8 countries are shown to have converged conditionally towards the EU15 countries’ average level of GDP per labour force.Tässä tutkimuksessa analysoidaan ensin, kuinka ehdollinen konvergenssi on edistynyt EU15-alueella vuosina 1960-2002. Ehdollista konvergenssia osoitetaan tapahtuneen, ja syvempi integraatio on enimmäkseen edistänyt sitä. Myös korkeampi investointiaste sekä pienempi julkinen kulutus ja alempi inflaatio ovat nopeuttaneet talouskasvua. Sitten käytämme samaa menetelmää (PMG, pooled mean group) analysoidaksemme kahdeksan Keski- ja Itä-Euroopan uuden EU-maan konvergenssia kohti EU15-maiden keskimääräistä BKT per työvoima-tasoa vuosina 1993-2002. KIE8-maiden osoitetaan konvergoituneen ehdollisesti kohti EU15-maiden keskiarvoa tässä suhteessa

Free trade between the EU and Russia: Sectoral effects and impact on Northwest Russia

We analyse the implications of free trade between the EU25 and Russia using GTAP, a computable general equilibrium model. We review the sectoral effects by countries and make a tentative assessment of the impact on the regions in northwest Russia. Free trade on its own would have a negative terms-of-trade effect in Russia and cause a small decline in welfare. If coupled with an increase in productivity, welfare would increase. This emphasises the importance of reforms in the Russian economy. The quantity of production in Russia in ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy, machine building and metal working, and wood and paper are the principal declining sectors with free trade. Production in capital goods, fuel industry, and services increases. Thus there are some symptoms of Dutch disease. Due to its production structure the northwest would seem to benefit slightly less than Russia on average in terms of the volume of gross regional product. In this respect there are differences between the regions of northwest Russia

Teollisuusmaiden suhteellinen etu ja sen panosintensiivisyys

Tässä tutkimuksessa tarkastellaan ulkomaankaupan suhteellisen edun ja erikoistumisen rakennetta ja määräytymistä lähinnä tuotantopanosten näkökulmasta. Tutkimuksessa rakennetaan 217 teollisuuden toimialalle kuusiluokkainen jaottelu sen mukaan, kuinka pääoma-, työvoima- ja osaamisintensiivistä niiden tuotanto on. Osaamista arvioidaan keskipalkan ja t&k-menojen avulla. Luokittelua sovelletaan EU-maiden, muiden OECD-maiden sekä Kiinan, Taiwanin ja Hongkongin Balassa-indeksin mukaisen suhteellisen edun ja Lafayindeksin mukaisen nettovientierikoistumisen tarkasteluun HS-luokittelun 4-numerotasolla. Tulosten mukaan Suomen suhteellinen etu on yhtäältä hyvin osaamisintensiivisissä tuotteissa sekä toisaalta vähemmän osaamisintensiivisissä mutta pääomaintensiivisissä tuotteissa. Nettoviennin osalta erikoistuminen on sen sijaan nimenomaan jälkimmäisessä luokassa. Suomi on kuitenkin vuosina 1996-2006 siirtynyt voimakkaasti kohti osaamisintensiivisempää erikoistumista. Suomen suhteellisen edun ja erikoistumisen panosintensiivisyys on muista maista samankaltaisin Ruotsin ja Itävallan kanssa. Muihin maihin verrattuna Suomen suhteellinen etu on keskittynyt hyvin vähäiseen määrään tuotteita

The factor intensity of accession and EU15 countries' comparative advantage in the internal market

Economic relations between the European Union and the accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) were liberalised by Europe Agreements after the early 1990s. Free trade and investment have the potential of changing the structure of countries’ trade although with some restrictions set by, inter alia, the quantity and quality of the available factors of production. The accession countries have lower labour costs coupled with a relatively well-educated labour force. We analyse the factor intensity (skilled/unskilled labour and capital) of the accession countries’ comparative advantage in the internal market in 1993-2002. Most accession countries’ comparative advantage remains less skillintensive than that of the EU15 countries. A movement towards a more skillintensive comparative advantage is shown to have been positively correlated with higher growth rates in the EU15 and the CEE countries.Taloussuhteet Euroopan unionin sekä Keski- ja Itä-Euroopan (KIE) EU-hakijamaiden välillä liberalisoitiin Eurooppa-sopimuksilla 1990-luvun alun jälkeen. Vapaa kauppa ja investoinnit saattavat muuttaa maiden välisen ulkomaankaupan rakennetta, joskin rajoitteita tuovat muun muassa tarjolla olevien tuotannontekijöiden määrä ja laatu. KIE-maissa on EU15-maita alemmat työvoimakustannukset sekä suhteellisen koulutettu työvoima. Tässä tutkimuksessa analysoidaan KIE-maiden suhteellisen edun panosintensiivisyyttä (koulutettu/kouluttamaton työvoima sekä pääoma) niiden viennissä EU15-alueelle vuosina 1993-2002. Useimpien KIE-maiden suhteellinen etu on painottunut alemman osaamisintensiivisyyden tuotteisiin kuin EU15-maiden vastaava suhteellinen etu. Siirtymä kohti osaamisintensiivisempiä tuotteita on korreloinut positiivisesti nopeamman talouskasvun kanssa EU15- ja KIE-maissa. – EU ; itälaajeneminen ; suhteellinen etu ; panosintensiivisyy

Quality-adjusted similarity of EU-countries' export structure

We propose a new way to measure the extent to which countries compete in their exports. We augment the similarity index proposed by Finger and Kreinin (1979) with product quality. Quality is measured using unit export prices in the tradition of the horizontal/vertical intra-industry trade literature. We analyse the EU27 countries' export structures using 1) overall similarity à la Finger and Kreinin, 2) same-quality similarity, and 3) quality-adjusted similarity that combines the first two measures. We find that the similarity of the export structures of the new member countries and the cohesion countries vis-à-vis the non-cohesion EU15 countries has increased, but that there remains a divide between them especially in terms of same-quality exports

Intra industry trade expansion and productivity growth

We use the concept of marginal intra-industry trade (MIIT) to analyse the effect of trade expansion on labour productivity growth across 23 EU countries and 94 manufacturing sectors in 1995-2005. The highest MIIT index values are found in sectors producing differentiated goods as well as in science and scale-intensive sectors, while the lowest are found in resource and labour-intensive sectors. Thus specialisation in sectors characterised by tradi-tional comparative advantage has been associated with slower productivity growth. The results indicate that a trade-flow expansion characterised by intra-industry trade (high MIIT) is associated with faster productivity growth also after we control for the size in trade flow changes. Especially the increase in imports seems important. The analysis is mostly done using random-effects linear model specifications but further evidence is presented using several other estimation methods

An assessment of Russia's growth prospects in 2003 - 2010

We examine macroeconomic developments in Russia in the latter half of the 1990s and the beginning of the 21st century. In this context we discuss the exchange rate of the rouble, the world market price of oil and the significance of reforms. Then we analyse Russia’s growth prospects by reviewing estimates in the literature and making an estimate of our own that shows what the ratio of gross fixed capital formation to gross domestic product should be to sustain a given long-run growth rate. A higher investment rate is necessary in order to maintain growth momentum in Russia. The continuation of reform policies would support growth prospects. – Russia ; economic growth ; investment ; reformsTässä keskustelualoitteessa tarkastellaan Venäjän makrotaloudellista kehitystä 1990-luvun jälkipuoliskolla ja tämän vuosikymmenen alussa. Tätä taustaa vasten analysoidaan ruplan vaihtokurssin, öljyn maailmanmarkkinahinnan ja talouden uudistusten merkitystä. Tämän jälkeen tarkastelemme kirjallisuudessa esitettyjä arvioita Venäjän kasvumahdollisuuksista ja teemme oman laskelman, josta nähdään, mikä bruttopääomanmuodostuksen osuus bruttokansantuotteesta pitäisi olla, jotta tietty kasvuvauhti voidaan ylläpitää pitkällä aikavälillä. Investoinnit ovat tässä suhteessa avainasemassa ja niiden taustalla tärkeänä tekijänä on puolestaan uudistusten jatkaminen. – Venäjä ; kasvu ; investoinnit ; uudistukse