84 research outputs found

    Dynamic asset allocation with ambiguous return predictability

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    We study an investor's optimal consumption and portfolio choice problem when he is confronted with two possibly misspecified submodels of stock returns: one with IID returns and the other with predictability. We adopt a generalized recursive ambiguity model to accommodate the investor's aversion to model uncertainty. The investor deals with specification doubts by slanting his beliefs about submodels of returns pessimistically, causing his investment strategy to be more conservative than the Bayesian strategy. Unlike in the Bayesian framework, the hedging demand against model uncertainty may cause the investor's stock allocation to decrease sharply given a small doubt of return predictability, even though the expected return according to the VAR model is large. Over much of the parameter space, the robust strategy is very close to the Bayesian strategy with Epstein-Zin preferences and risk aversion chosen to match the same average portfolio holdings. This is true in particular when the IID model is unlikely and the dividend yield is low, as in recent years. However, differences in strategies can be substantial if the IID model is unlikely and the dividend yield is high

    A Model of Optimal Capital Sucture with Stochastic Interest Rates

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    This paper develops a model of optimal capital structure with stochastic interest rate which is assumed to follow a mean-reverting process. Closed-form solutions are obtained for both the value of the firm and the value of its risky debt. The paper finds that the current level and the long-run mean of the interest rate process play distinctive roles in our integrated model. The current level of the interest rate is critical in the pricing of risky bonds, while the long-run mean plays a key role in the determination of a firm’s optimal capital sucture such as the optimal coupon rate and leverage ratio. Our findings demonsate that a model of optimal capital sucture with a constant interest rate cannot price risky bonds and determine the optimal capital sucture simultaneously in a satisfactory manner. Furthermore, our numerical results indicate that the correlation between the stochastic interest rate and the asset return of a firm has little impact on the firm’s optimal capital structure

    Ambiguity, learning, and asset returns

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    We develop a consumption-based asset-pricing model in which the representative agent is ambiguous about the hidden state in consumption growth. He learns about the hidden state under ambiguity by observing past consumption data. His preferences are represented by the smooth ambiguity model axiomatized by Klibanoff et al. (2005, 2006). Unlike the standard Bayesian theory, this utility model implies that the posterior of the hidden state and the conditional distribution of the consumption process given a state cannot be reduced to a predictive distribution. By calibrating the ambiguity aversion parameter, the subjective discount factor, and the risk aversion parameter (with the latter two values between zero and one), our model can match the first moments of the equity premium and riskfree rate found in the data. In addition, our model can generate a variety of dynamic asset pricing phenomena, including the procyclical variation of price-dividend ratios, the countercyclical variation of equity premia and equity volatility, and the mean reversion and long horizon predictability of excess returns
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