GDP Data Revisions and Forward-Looking Monetary Policy in Switzerland

This paper analyzes forward-looking rules for Swiss monetary policy in a small structural VAR model consisting of four variables taking into account data revisions for GDP. First, the paper develops an analytical method to analyze the effect of data revision errors in GDP on the ex ante or conditional inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off and applies it to Swiss data. Second, the effects of different targets in a forward-looking monetary policy on ex post or unconditional volatility of inflation and output growth is explored by a simulation exercise. In general, the results obtained suggest that focusing monetary policy on GDP growth instead on inflation may lead to an inefficient policy with both increased medium term inflation and GDP growth volatility in the presence of GDP data revisions.Structural VAR, forward-looking monetary policy, efficiency frontier, GDP data revisions

The Analysis of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy in a SVAR Framework

This paper analyzes forward-looking monetary policy rules in structural VAR’s. First, an approach for modeling a monetary policy which aims at a strict medium term inflation or output growth target is developed. Second, the ex ante inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off for a forward-looking policy aiming at a convex combination these strategies is derived. Finally, an illustration of our approach using Swiss data is given.Structural VAR, forward-looking monetary policy, efficiency frontier

Change of the plane of oscillation of a Foucault pendulum from simple pictures

The change of the plane of oscillation of a Foucault pendulum is calculated without using equations of motion, the Gauss-Bonnet theorem, parallel transport, or assumptions that are difficult to explain.Comment: 5 pages, 4 figure

Measurement errors in GDP and forward-looking monetary policy: The Swiss case

This paper analyzes forward-looking rules for Swiss monetary policy in a small structural VAR consisting of four variables. First, the paper looks at the ex ante inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off for a forward-looking policy aiming at a convex combination of a strict inflation and output growth targeting rule implied by this SVAR model. Thereby the paper introduces a new analytical method. Second, the paper considers the effect of measurement errors in GDP on this inflation-output-growth volatility trade-off. Third, the paper works at the impact of changing beliefs about the potential growth rate on the variability of output growth and inflation. Finally the effects of different targets in a forward-looking monetary policy on ex post or unconditional volatility of inflation and output growth is explored by a simulation exercise. --Structural VAR,forward-looking monetary policy,efficiency frontier,GDP measurement errors

AMPHIBIAN DISTRIBUTION IN THE GEORGIA SEA ISLANDS: IMPLICATIONS FROM THE PAST AND FOR THE FUTURE

We summarized amphibian distributions for 12 coastal islands in Georgia, USA. Occurrence among islands was correlated with life history traits, habitats, island size, distance to other islands, and island geological age. Species’ distributions were determined from published literature. Island sizes and vegetation types were derived from 2011 Georgia Department of Natural Resources habitat maps, which included both federal and state vegetation classification systems. Species occurring on more islands tended to have greater total reproductive output (i.e., life span >4 years, and annual egg production >1,000 eggs) and adults had tolerance of brackish environs. Larger islands had great­er area of freshwater wetlands, predominantly short hydroperiod (<6 months). Species tied to long hydroperiod wetlands (>6 months) were more restricted in their distribution across islands. Overall, larger islands supported more species, but the correlation was weaker for geologically younger Ho­locene islands (age <11,000 years). While Euclidean distance between islands does not necessarily preclude inter-island dispersal, inhospitable habitat for amphibians (brackish tidal marshes and creeks interspersed with wide rivers) suggests that inter-island dispersal is very limited. The paucity of recent occurrence data for amphibians in this dynamic coastal region, let alone standardized annual moni­toring data, hinders efforts to model species’ vulnerability in a region susceptible to sea level rise and development pressure. The most common survey method, standardized amphibian vocal surveys, will detect Anuran reproductive efforts, but is unlikely to ascertain if breeding was successful or to detect salamanders. While it will not replace actual population data, consideration of critical life-history traits and breeding habitat availability can be used to direct management to support long-term species per­sistence in changing environs. Even common amphibians in coastal conservation areas of Georgia are vulnerable to increasing population isolation caused by unsuitable habitat

Maps for Lorentz transformations of spin

Lorentz transformations of spin density matrices for a particle with positive mass and spin 1/2 are described by maps of the kind used in open quantum dynamics. They show how the Lorentz transformations of the spin depend on the momentum. Since the spin and momentum generally are entangled, the maps generally are not completely positive and act in limited domains. States with two momentum values are considered, so the maps are for the spin qubit entangled with the qubit made from the two momentum values, and results from the open quantum dynamics of two coupled qubits can be applied. Inverse maps are used to show that every Lorentz transformation completely removes the spin polarization, and so completely removes the information, from a number of spin density matrices. The size of the spin polarization that is removed is calculated for particular cases.Comment: 7 Pages, 3 Figure

Lorentz transformations that entangle spins and entangle momenta

Simple examples are presented of Lorentz transformations that entangle the spins and momenta of two particles with positive mass and spin 1/2. They apply to indistinguishable particles, produce maximal entanglement from finite Lorentz transformations of states for finite momenta, and describe entanglement of spins produced together with entanglement of momenta. From the entanglements considered, no sum of entanglements is found to be unchanged.Comment: 5 Pages, 2 Figures, One new paragraph and reference adde

The M-type stars

The papers in this volume cover the following topics: (1) basic properties and photometric variability of M and related stars; (2) spectroscopy and nonthermal processes; (3) circumstellar radio molecular lines; (4) circumstellar shells, the formation of grains, and radiation transfer; (5) mass loss; (6) circumstellar chemistry; (7) thermal atmospheric models; (8) quasi-thermal models; (9) observations on the atmospheres of M dwarfs; and (1) theoretical work on M dwarfs

Metallicity Effect on LMXB Formation in Globular Clusters

We present comprehensive observational results of the metallicity effect on the fraction of globular clusters (GC) that contain low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXB), by utilizing all available data obtained with Chandra for LMXBs and HST ACS for GCs. Our primary sample consists of old elliptical galaxies selected from the ACS Virgo and Fornax surveys. To improve statistics at both the lowest and highest X-ray luminosity, we also use previously reported results from other galaxies. It is well known that the LMXB fraction is considerably higher in red, metal-rich, than in blue, metal-poor GCs. In this paper, we test whether this metallicity effect is X-ray luminosity-dependent, and find that the effect holds uniformly in a wide luminosity range. This result is statistically significant (at >= 3 sigma) in LMXBs with luminosities in the range LX = 2 x 10^37 - 5 x 10^38 erg s-1, where the ratio of LMXB fractions in metal-rich to metal-poor GCs is R = 3.4 +- 0.5. A similar ratio is also found at lower (down to 10^36 erg s-1) and higher luminosities (up to the ULX regime), but with less significance (~2 sigma confidence). Because different types of LMXBs dominate in different luminosities, our finding requires a new explanation for the metallicity effect in dynamically formed LMXBs. We confirm that the metallicity effect is not affected by other factors such as stellar age, GC mass, stellar encounter rate, and galacto-centric distance.Comment: 21 pages, 5 figures, accepted in Ap