Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 126:Efficiency wages, unemployment and macroeconomic policy

We provide empirical evidence from a number of European countries, which shows that unemployment and output are positively related when unemployment is low and inversely related when unemployment is high. We then construct a stylised macro-model with goods and labour market imperfections to show that the economy can rationally operate at an inefficient equilibrium in the neighbourhood of which the relationship between output and unemployment is positive. Our results suggest that circumstances exist in which market imperfections pose serious obstacles to the smooth working of expansionary and/or stabilization policies whose final aim is to improve welfare. KEYWORDS: Efficiency wages; effort supply; monopolistic competition; multiple equilibria; stability; fiscal multiplie

Vertical Product Differentiation and the Import Demand Function: Theory and Evidence

In this paper we use a model of vertical product differentiation to cast doubt on the general validity of the import demand function as specified in macroeconomic models. The empirical importance of our theoretical concerns is then examined with the aid of two hypotheses. According to the first hypothesis, an increase in domestic wages is expected to reduce the share in total imports for goods in which the domestic comparative advantage is in high quality varieties of these goods. The second hypothesis states that an increase in non-wage income will increase the share of a good?s imports if the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties of this good. We find considerable empirical support for both hypotheses in the data for Germany, Japan and the United States.

Estimated General Equilibrium Models for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy in the US and Europe

A persistent criticism of general equilibrium models of monetary policy which incorporate nominal inertia in the form of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) is that they fail to capture the extent of inflation inertia in the data. In this paper we derive a general equilibrium model based on optimising behaviour, but which also implies a data consistent NKPC. Specifically our model accounts for nominal inertia in both price and wage setting as well for habits in consumption. Using US and European data from 1970 to 1998 our parameter estimates reveal that (i) there is relatively more inertia in price-setting in Europe; (ii) wage contracts last longer in the US; (iii) the extent of backward-looking behaviour in price and wage setting is statistically significant but small in both the US and Europe; and (iv) significant habits effects are present in European consumption. Finally we simulate the effects of monetary policy and find that while the magnitude of the impact of monetary policy on the endogenous variables in our estimated models are similar to other econometric studies, the dynamic paths for variables display less inertia than is typically found in studies which use output gaps to proxy changes in marginal costs.

The Relationship between Output and Unemployment with Efficiency Wages

We construct a stylised model of the supply side with goods and labour market imperfections to show that an economy can rationally operate at an inefficient, or ‘low-effort’, state in which the relationship between output and unemployment is positive. We examine data from the G7 countries over 1960-2001 and find that only German data strongly favour a persistent negative relationship between the level of output and rate of unemployment. The consequence of this is that circumstances exist in which market imperfections could pose serious obstacles to the smooth working of expansionary and/or stabilization policies and a positive demand shock might have adverse effects on employment.Efficiency wages, effort supply, Kalman filter, monopolistic competition, Okun’s law.

On the Cyclicality and Stability of Real Earnings

We show in this paper that important insights into the cyclical behaviour of wages can be gained by dividing (real) average hourly earnings into their straight-time hourly wage and overtime components. Our motivation is based on the idea of employment-contingent contracts. BLS published and unpublished statistics are used to decompose average earnings into (i) the straight-time wage rate, (ii) the ‘mark-up’ needed to achieve an overtime worker’s earnings rate, and (iii) the proportion of workers working overtime. Using monthly manufacturing data from 1962–1997, cyclicality measures of these components are based on contemporaneous bivariate correlations using four alternative detrending methods while stability is examined using recursive estimation and testing methods. While the wage rate is generally acyclical and unstable, the other two components are highly pro-cyclical and relatively stable.

Do excessive wage increases raise imports? Theory and evidence.

wages, imports, vertically differentiated products

Monopolistic Competition, Efficiency Wages and Perverse Effects of Demand Shock

In this paper we construct a stylised general equilibrium macromodel to show that demand led expansions may have unexpected effects when market imperfections lead to changes in labour productivity. We find some empirical support, from a number of European countries, for the main predictions of this model that unemployment and output are positively related when unemployment is low and inversely related when unemployment is high. An important policy insight that emerges from this study is that an exogenous stimulation of aggregate demand can only raise output and reduce unemployment provided the economy is operating relatively efficiently. However, when an economy is trapped in an inefficient equilibrium, positive demand shocks can lead, perversely, to an increase in unemployment.

Do Excessive Wage Increases Raise Imports? Theory and Evidence

This paper uses a model of trade in vertically differentiated products to examine the effects of "excessive wage" increases (i.e. above productivity) on the volume of commodity imports. The model predicts that for commodities, in which the country has comparative advantage in high quality varieties, an increase in "excessive wages" may result in a decrease in the volume of imports. The empirical validity of the model's predictions is demonstrated with the use of disaggregated Japanese import data for the period 1967-95. We also find that the aggregate volume of Japanese imports is not responsive to "excessive wage" changes.