9,030 research outputs found

    Estimating the Inflation-Output Variability Frontier with Inflation Targeting: A VAR Approach

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    This paper (i) illustrates how a VAR model can be used to evaluate inflation targeting, (ii) derives the policy frontier available to the central bank using counterfactual experiments with real time data, and (iii) estimates how this frontier has changed over time in terms of the position and slope of the available tradeoff between output gap variability and inflation variability under inflation targeting. Various inflation targets are considered as are tolerance bands of varying width around these targets. The results indicate that over time (i) a given reduction in inflation variability is associated with a smaller rise in output variability and that (ii) a given inflation variability is achieved with smaller interest rate volatility. Consistent with the data, our results require federal funds rate persistence, though no instrument instability was observed.

    Inflation Forecast Targeting: A VAR Approach

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    We show how to implement inflation forecast targeting using a VAR model and derive the implied inflation-output variability frontier. Our approach is based on dynamic, stochastic simulations of the average inflation rate over a two-year horizon using the moving average representation of the VAR model. Using real time data over two samples, we estimate the inflation-output variability frontier for the U.S. and show that it has shifted favorably over time. We consider the frequency and nature of the policy interventions required to achieve target inflation in both samples and compare these interventions over time.

    Estimating the Inflation-Output Variability Frontier with Inflation Targeting: A VAR Approach

    Get PDF
    This paper (i) illustrates how a VAR model can be used to evaluate inflation targeting, (ii) derives the policy frontier available to the central bank using counterfactual experiments with real time data, and (iii) estimates how this frontier has changed over time in terms of the position and slope of the available tradeoff between output gap variability and inflation variability under inflation targeting. Various inflation targets are considered as are tolerance bands of varying width around these targets. The results indicate that over time (i) a given reduction in inflation variability is associated with a smaller rise in output variability and that (ii) a given inflation variability is achieved with smaller interest rate volatility. Consistent with the data, our results require federal funds rate persistence, though no instrument instability was observed. One interpretation of these results is that they reflect the growing credibility of the Federal Reserve.

    Quantum imaging of spin states in optical lattices

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    We investigate imaging of the spatial spin distribution of atoms in optical lattices using non-resonant light scattering. We demonstrate how scattering spatially correlated light from the atoms can result in spin state images with enhanced spatial resolution. Furthermore, we show how using spatially correlated light can lead to direct measurement of the spatial correlations of the atomic spin distribution

    Photon molecules in atomic gases trapped near photonic crystal waveguides

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    Realizing systems that support robust, controlled interactions between individual photons is an exciting frontier of nonlinear optics. To this end, one approach that has emerged recently is to leverage atomic interactions to create strong and spatially non-local interactions between photons. In particular, effective interactions have been successfully created via interactions between atoms excited to Rydberg levels. Here, we investigate an alternative approach, in which atomic interactions arise via their common coupling to photonic crystal waveguides. This technique takes advantage of the ability to separately tailor the strength and range of interactions via the dispersion engineering of the structure itself, which can lead to qualitatively new types of phenomena. As an example, we discuss the formation of correlated transparency windows, in which photonic states of a certain number and shape selectively propagate through the system. Through this technique, we show in particular that one can create molecular-like potentials that lead to molecular bound states of photon pairs

    Heat and Mass Transfer in Cold Regions Soils

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    The work upon which this report is based was made possible by a cooperative aid agreement between the U.S. Forest Service, Institute of Northern Forestry, Fairbanks, Alaska, and the Institute of Water Resources, University of Alaska. Contributions to this study were also made by the University of California at Davis and Ohio State University. The collection of winter data on pore pressures was made possible by a separate grant by the Office of Water Research and Technology (project A-053 ALAS)
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