Traces of the Second Demographic Transition in Four Selected Countries in Central and Eastern Europe: Union Formation as a Demographic Manifestation

Using data from the first round of the national Gender and Generations Surveys of Russia, Romania, and Bulgaria, and from a similar survey of Hungary, which were all collected in recent years, we study rates of entry into marital and non-marital unions. We have used elements from the narrative of the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) as a vehicle to give our analysis of the data from the four countries some coherence, and find what can be traces of the SDT in these countries. The details vary by country; in particular, latter-day developments in union formation patterns did not start at the same time in all the countries, but in our assessment it began everywhere before communism fell, that is, before the societal transition to a market economy got underway in 1990

Le taux de fécondité totale dans le mariage et ses extensions

What we will call the age-based TMFR is computed conventionally by adding up age-specific marital fertility rates in the hope of estimating the number of children ever born to a woman who is married throughout her childbearing years. Demographers have long been strongly skeptical about this quantity because it normally indicates implausibly many children. Our analysis of data from the Romanian GGS confirms this finding, and we propose an alternative duration-based TMFR computed in the spirit of parity-progression ratios. At the same time, we extend the method to cover any type of living arrangement (cohabitation, marriage, non-partnered arrangement, and so on). Because each resulting total union-type fertility rate (TUFR) explicitly accounts for the living arrangement, it improves on the conventional total fertility rate (TFR), which does not. We embed the investigation in an event-history analysis with fixed and time-varying control covariates and find patterns of relative risks for such variables that reveal interesting features of childbearing behavior in the Romanian data, which we use to illustrate the method. In most cases, these patterns are quite robust against model re-specification, including the shift from the age-based to the duration-based approach. Since, the number of female respondents is “only” about 6,000 (minus records that cannot be used for the current purpose) in a normal single-round GGS, there is considerable inherent random variation in the data set, but we show that simple few-term moving average graduation suffices to overcome this problem.Le taux de fécondité totale en mariage (TFTM) selon l’âge est calculé par convention en sommant les taux de fécondité par âge dans le mariage en vue d’obtenir une estimation du nombre total d’enfants nés d’une femme qui aurait été mariée tout au long de sa vie reproductive. Depuis longtemps les démographes considèrent cette mesure avec scepticisme car elle aboutit souvent à un nombre total d’enfants beaucoup trop élevé. Notre analyse des données du EGG roumain confirme cette constatation et nous proposons dès lors, comme alternative, un TFTM selon la durée, dans l’esprit des probabilités d’agrandissement des familles. Par ailleurs, nous étendons la méthode à tous types de situation de couple (cohabitation, mariage, sans partenaire, etc.). Comme le taux de fécondité totale selon le type d’union (TFTU) tient compte explicitement de la situation de couple, il doit être préféré au TFTM qui ne tient pas compte de ce critère. Notre étude est conduite dans le cadre d’une analyse biographique tenant compte de covariables fixes ou dépendantes du temps. Les résultats de l’analyse nous permettent de découvrir des caractéristiques intéressantes de la fécondité roumaine, que nous utilisons pour illustrer la méthode. Dans la plupart des cas, ces caractéristiques sont robustes face à une re-spécification du modèle, notamment le passage de l’approche basée sur l’âge à l’approche tenant compte de la durée. Comme le nombre de répondants à l’enquête EGG à un passage n’est ‘que’ de l’ordre de 6000 (moins les cas qui n’ont pas pu être utilisés pour le présent travail), il existe une fluctuation aléatoire importante dans les données. Nous montrons toutefois qu’un lissage par moyenne mobile à quelques termes seulement nous permet de surmonter cette difficulté

Heterogeneity in multistage carcinogenesis and mixture modeling

Carcinogenesis is commonly described as a multistage process, in which stem cells are transformed into cancer cells via a series of mutations. In this article, we consider extensions of the multistage carcinogenesis model by mixture modeling. This approach allows us to describe population heterogeneity in a biologically meaningful way. We focus on finite mixture models, for which we prove identifiability. These models are applied to human lung cancer data from several birth cohorts. Maximum likelihood estimation does not perform well in this application due to the heavy censoring in our data. We thus use analytic graduation instead. Very good fits are achieved for models that combine a small high risk group with a large group that is quasi immune

Childbearing intentions in a low fertility context: the case of Romania

This paper applies the Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) to find out the predictors of fertility intentions in Romania, a low-fertility country. We analyse how attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioural control relate to the intention to have a child among childless individuals and one-child parents. Principal axis factor analysis confirms which items proposed by the Generation and Gender Survey (GGS 2005) act as valid and reliable measures of the suggested theoretical socio-psychological factors. Four parity-specific logistic regression models are applied to evaluate the relationship between the socio-psychological factors and childbearing intentions. Social pressure emerges as the most important aspect in fertility decision-making among childless individuals and one-child parents, and positive attitudes towards childbearing are a strong component in planning for a child. This paper also underlines the importance of the region-specific factors when studying childbearing intentions: planning for the second child significantly differs among the development regions, representing the cultural and socio-economic divisions of the Romanian territory

Home bitter home? Gender, living arrangements, and the exclusion from homeownership among older Europeans

Abstract Homeownership is the most important asset among the elderly in Europe, but very little is known about gender and living arrangement differences in this domain. This paper aims at exploring patterns of exclusion from homeownership among middle-aged and older Europeans from a gender perspective, and with a special focus on their household composition. The analysis is based on the fourth wave of the “Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe” and includes a sub-sample of about 56,000 individuals aged 50 or over, living in 16 European countries. We estimated a set of multinomial logit models to examine the probability of being either tenant or rent-free occupiers versus homeowners. Our findings show that women are generally more likely to be excluded from homeownership than men. Nevertheless, a closer look suggests that the gender gap in homeownership is essentially generated by compositional differences between men and women, with the most relevant factor being household type. Older women are almost as twice as likely as men to live alone, which is associated—other things being equal—with a particular low likelihood to be homeowners virtually in every European country

How Grandparents Matter: Support for the Cooperative Breeding Hypothesis in a Contemporary Dutch Population

Low birth rates in developed societies reflect women’s difficulties in combining work and motherhood. While demographic research has focused on the role of formal childcare in easing this dilemma, evolutionary theory points to the importance of kin. The cooperative breeding hypothesis states that the wider kin group has facilitated women’s reproduction during our evolutionary history. This mechanism has been demonstrated in pre-industrial societies, but there is no direct evidence of beneficial effects of kin’s support on parents’ reproduction in modern societies. Using three-generation longitudinal data anchored in a sample of grandparents aged 55 and over in 1992 in the Netherlands, we show that childcare support from grandparents increases the probability that parents have additional children in the next 8 to 10 years. Grandparental childcare provided to a nephew or niece of childless children did not significantly increase the probability that those children started a family. These results suggest that childcare support by grandparents can enhance their children’s reproductive success in modern societies and is an important factor in people’s fertility decisions, along with the availability of formal childcare

Immigrant fertility in West Germany: is there a socialization effect in transitions to second and third births?

In this paper on immigrant fertility in West Germany, we estimate the transition rates to second and third births, using intensity-regression models. The data come from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study. We distinguish women of the first and the second immigrant generations originating from Turkey, the former Yugoslavia, Greece, Italy, and Spain, and compare their fertility levels to those of West German women. In the theoretical framework, we discuss competing hypotheses on migrant fertility. The findings support mainly the socialization hypothesis: the transition rates of first-generation immigrants vary by country of origin, and the fertility patterns of migrant descendants resemble more closely those of West Germans than those of the first immigrant generation. In addition, the analyses show that fertility differentials between immigrants and women of the indigenous population can largely, though not in full, be explained by compositional differences.Dans cet article relatif à la fécondité des immigrées en Allemagne, le passage du premier au deuxieme enfant et dans celui du deuxieme au troisieme enfant est estimé à partir de modèles de régression à risques instantanés. Les données utilisées proviennent de l’étude de Panel socio-économique allemand. On distingue les femmes immigrées de première ou de seconde génération originaires de Turquie, d’ex-Yougoslavie, de Grèce, d’Italie et d’Espagne, et leurs niveaux de fécondité sont comparés à ceux des femmes ouest-allemandes d’origine. Des hypothèses concurrentes sur la fécondité des immigrés sont discutées dans le cadre théorique. Les résultats vérifient principalement l’hypothèse de la socialisation : le passage au deuxieme et au troisieme enfant de la première génération d’immigrés varie selon le pays d’origine, et le profil de fécondité par âge des descendantes d’immigrées se rapproche plus de celui des femmes ouest-allemandes que de celui des immigrées de première génération. De plus, les analyses montrent que les différences de fécondité entre les immigrées et les femmes ouest-allemandes peuvent être en grande partie, mais pas totalement, expliquées par des différences de structure