Epic Human Failure on June 30, 2013

Nineteen Prescott Fire Department, Granite Mountain Hot Shot (GMHS) wildland firefighters and supervisors (WFF), perished on the June 2013 Yarnell Hill Fire (YHF) in Arizona. The firefighters left their Safety Zone during forecast, outflow winds, triggering explosive fire behavior in drought-stressed chaparral. Why would an experienced WFF Crew, leave ‘good black’ and travel downslope through a brush-filled chimney, contrary to their training and experience? An organized Serious Accident Investigation Team (SAIT) found, “… no indication of negligence, reckless actions, or violations of policy or protocol.” Despite this, many WFF professionals deemed the catastrophe, “… the final, fatal link, in a long chain of bad decisions with good outcomes.” This paper is a theoretical and realistic examination of plausible, faulty, human decisions with prior good outcomes; internal and external impacts, influencing the GMHS; and two explanations for this catastrophe: Individual Blame Logic and Organizational Function Logic, and proposed preventive mitigations

Mathieu twining characters for K3

The analogue of the McKay-Thompson series for the proposed Mathieu group action on the elliptic genus of K3 is analysed. The corresponding NS-sector twining characters have good modular properties and satisfy remarkable replication identities. These observations provide strong support for the conjecture that the elliptic genus of K3 carries indeed an action of the Mathieu group M24.Comment: 19 page

Exploring the context of sedentary behaviour in older adults (what, where, why, when and with whom)

BACKGROUND: Older adults are the most sedentary segment of the population. Little information is available about the context of sedentary behaviour to inform guidelines and intervention. There is a dearth of information about when, where to intervene and which specific behaviours intervention should target. The aim of this exploratory study was to obtain objective information about what older adults do when sedentary, where and when they are sedentary and in what social context. METHODS: The study was a cross-sectional data collection. Older adults (Mean age = 73.25, SD ± 5.48, median = 72, IQR = 11) volunteers wore activPAL monitors and a Vicon Revue timelapse camera between 1 and 7 days. Periods of sedentary behaviour were identified using the activPAL and the context extracted from the pictures taken during these periods. Analysis of context was conducted using the Sedentary Behaviour International Taxonomy classification system. RESULTS: In total, 52 days from 36 participants were available for analysis. Participants spent 70.1 % of sedentary time at home, 56.9 % of sedentary time on their own and 46.8 % occurred in the afternoon. Seated social activities were infrequent (6.9 % of sedentary bouts) but prolonged (18 % of sedentary time). Participants appeared to frequently have vacant sitting time (41 % of non-screen sedentary time) and screen sitting was prevalent (36 % of total sedentary time). CONCLUSIONS: This study provides valuable information to inform future interventions to reduce sedentary behaviour. Interventions should consider targeting the home environment and focus on the afternoon sitting time, though this needs confirmation in a larger study. Tackling social isolation may also be a target to reduce sedentary time

BKM Lie superalgebra for the Z_5 orbifolded CHL string

We study the Z_5-orbifolding of the CHL string theory by explicitly constructing the modular form tilde{Phi}_2 generating the degeneracies of the 1/4-BPS states in the theory. Since the additive seed for the sum form is a weak Jacobi form in this case, a mismatch is found between the modular forms generated from the additive lift and the product form derived from threshold corrections. We also construct the BKM Lie superalgebra, tilde{G}_5, corresponding to the modular form tilde{Delta}_1 (Z) = tilde{Phi}_2 (Z)^{1/2} which happens to be a hyperbolic algebra. This is the first occurrence of a hyperbolic BKM Lie superalgebra. We also study the walls of marginal stability of this theory in detail, and extend the arithmetic structure found by Cheng and Dabholkar for the N=1,2,3 orbifoldings to the N=4,5 and 6 models, all of which have an infinite number of walls in the fundamental domain. We find that analogous to the Stern-Brocot tree, which generated the intercepts of the walls on the real line, the intercepts for the N >3 cases are generated by linear recurrence relations. Using the correspondence between the walls of marginal stability and the walls of the Weyl chamber of the corresponding BKM Lie superalgebra, we propose the Cartan matrices for the BKM Lie superalgebras corresponding to the N=5 and 6 models.Comment: 30 pages, 2 figure

BPS black holes, the Hesse potential, and the topological string

The Hesse potential is constructed for a class of four-dimensional N=2 supersymmetric effective actions with S- and T-duality by performing the relevant Legendre transform by iteration. It is a function of fields that transform under duality according to an arithmetic subgroup of the classical dualities reflecting the monodromies of the underlying string compactification. These transformations are not subject to corrections, unlike the transformations of the fields that appear in the effective action which are affected by the presence of higher-derivative couplings. The class of actions that are considered includes those of the FHSV and the STU model. We also consider heterotic N=4 supersymmetric compactifications. The Hesse potential, which is equal to the free energy function for BPS black holes, is manifestly duality invariant. Generically it can be expanded in terms of powers of the modulus that represents the inverse topological string coupling constant, $g_s$, and its complex conjugate. The terms depending holomorphically on $g_s$ are expected to correspond to the topological string partition function and this expectation is explicitly verified in two cases. Terms proportional to mixed powers of $g_s$ and $\bar g_s$ are in principle present.Comment: 28 pages, LaTeX, added comment

Population-Related Variation in Plant Defense more Strongly Affects Survival of an Herbivore than Its Solitary Parasitoid Wasp

The performance of natural enemies, such as parasitoid wasps, is affected by differences in the quality of the host’s diet, frequently mediated by species or population-related differences in plant allelochemistry. Here, we compared survival, development time, and body mass in a generalist herbivore, the cabbage moth, Mamestra brassicae, and its solitary endoparasitoid, Microplitis mediator, when reared on two cultivated (CYR and STH) and three wild (KIM, OH, and WIN) populations of cabbage, Brassica oleracea. Plants either were undamaged or induced by feeding of larvae of the cabbage butterfly, Pieris rapae. Development and biomass of M. brassicae and Mi. mediator were similar on both cultivated and one wild cabbage population (KIM), intermediate on the OH population, and significantly lower on the WIN population. Moreover, development was prolonged and biomass was reduced on herbivore-induced plants. However, only the survival of parasitized hosts (and not that of healthy larvae) was affected by induction. Analysis of glucosinolates in leaves of the cabbages revealed higher levels in the wild populations than cultivars, with the highest concentrations in WIN plants. Multivariate statistics revealed a negative correlation between insect performance and total levels of glucosinolates (GS) and levels of 3-butenyl GS. However, GS chemistry could not explain the reduced performance on induced plants since only indole GS concentrations increased in response to herbivory, which did not affect insect performance based on multivariate statistics. This result suggests that, in addition to aliphatic GS, other non-GS chemicals are responsible for the decline in insect performance, and that these chemicals affect the parasitoid more strongly than the host. Remarkably, when developing on WIN plants, the survival of Mi. mediator to adult eclosion was much higher than in its host, M. brassicae. This may be due to the fact that hosts parasitized by Mi. mediator pass through fewer instars, and host growth is arrested when they are only a fraction of the size of healthy caterpillars. Certain aspects of the biology and life-history of the host and parasitoid may determine their response to chemical challenges imposed by the food plant

Programmed Protein Self-Assembly Driven by Genetically Encoded Intein-Mediated Native Chemical Ligation

Harnessing and controlling self-assembly is an important step in developing proteins as novel biomaterials. With this goal, here we report the design of a general genetically programmed system that covalently concatenates multiple distinct protein domains into specific assembled arrays. It is driven by iterative intein-mediated native chemical ligation (NCL) under mild native conditions. The system uses a series of initially inert recombinant protein fusions that sandwich the protein modules to be ligated between one of a number of different affinity tags and an intein protein domain. Orthogonal activation at opposite termini of compatible protein fusions, via protease and intein cleavage, coupled with sequential mixing directs an irreversible and traceless stepwise assembly process. This gives total control over the composition and arrangement of component proteins within the final product, enabled the limits of the systemreaction efficiency and yieldto be investigated, and led to the production of “functional” assemblies

Epidemiology of hip fracture in Belarus: development of a country-specific FRAX model and its comparison to neighboring country models

Summary Fracture probabilities resulting from the newly generated FRAX model for Belarus based on regional estimates of the hip fracture incidence were compared with FRAX models of neighboring countries. Differences between the country-specific FRAX patterns and the rank orders of fracture probabilities were modest. Objective This paper describes the epidemiology of hip fractures in Belarus that was used to develop the country-specific fracture prediction FRAX® tool and illustrates its features compared to models for the neighboring countries of Poland, Russia, and Lithuania. Methods We carried out a population-based study in a region of Belarus (the city of Mozyr) representing approximately 1.2% of the country’s population. We aimed to identify all hip fractures in 2011–2012 from hospital registers and primary care sources. Age- and sex-specific incidence and national mortality rates were incorporated into a FRAX model for Belarus. Fracture probabilities were compared with those derived from FRAX models in neighboring countries. Results The estimated number of hip fractures nationwide in persons over the age of 50 years for 2015 was 8250 in 2015 and is predicted to increase to 12,918 in 2050. The annual incidence of fragility hip fractures in individuals aged 50 years or more was 24.6/10,000 for women and 14.6/10,000 for men, standardized to the world population. The comparison with FRAX models in neighboring countries showed that hip fracture probabilities in men and women in Belarus were similar to those in Poland, Russia, and Lithuania. The difference in incidence rates between the surveys including or excluding data from primary care suggested that 29.1% of patients sustaining a hip fracture were not hospitalized and, therefore, did not receive specialized medical care. Conclusion A substantial proportion of hip fractures in Belarus does not come to hospital attention. The FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Belarus population and help guide decisions about treatment

D-brane anomaly inflow revisited

Axial and gravitational anomaly of field theories, when embedded in string theory, must be accompanied by canceling inflow. We give a self-contained overview for various world-volume theories, and clarify the role of smeared magnetic sources in I-brane/D-brane cases. The proper anomaly descent of the source, as demanded by regularity of RR field strengths H's, turns out to be an essential ingredient. We show how this allows correct inflow to be generated for all such theories, including self-dual cases, and also that the mechanism is now insensitive to the choice between the two related but inequivalent forms of D-brane Chern-Simons couplings. In particular, SO(6)_R axial anomaly of d=4 maximal SYM is canceled by the inflow onto D3-branes via the standard minimal coupling to C_4. We also propose how, for the anomaly cancelation, the four types of Orientifold planes should be coupled to the spacetime curvatures, of which conflicting claims existed previously.Comment: 41 pages, references updated; version to appear in JHE

The partition bundle of type A_{N-1} (2, 0) theory

Six-dimensional (2, 0) theory can be defined on a large class of six-manifolds endowed with some additional topological and geometric data (i.e. an orientation, a spin structure, a conformal structure, and an R-symmetry bundle with connection). We discuss the nature of the object that generalizes the partition function of a more conventional quantum theory. This object takes its values in a certain complex vector space, which fits together into the total space of a complex vector bundle (the `partition bundle') as the data on the six-manifold is varied in its infinite-dimensional parameter space. In this context, an important role is played by the middle-dimensional intermediate Jacobian of the six-manifold endowed with some additional data (i.e. a symplectic structure, a quadratic form, and a complex structure). We define a certain hermitian vector bundle over this finite-dimensional parameter space. The partition bundle is then given by the pullback of the latter bundle by the map from the parameter space related to the six-manifold to the parameter space related to the intermediate Jacobian.Comment: 15 pages. Minor changes, added reference