Stability of earthquake clustering models:Criticality and branching ratios

We study the stability conditions of a class of branching processes prominent in the analysis and modeling of seismicity. This class includes the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model as a special case, but more generally comprises models in which the magnitude distribution of direct offspring depends on the magnitude of the progenitor, such as the branching aftershock sequence (BASS) model and another recently proposed branching model based on a dynamic scaling hypothesis. These stability conditions are closely related to the concepts of the criticality parameter and the branching ratio. The criticality parameter summarizes the asymptotic behavior of the population after sufficiently many generations, determined by the maximum eigenvalue of the transition equations. The branching ratio is defined by the proportion of triggered events in all the events. Based on the results for the generalized case, we show that the branching ratio of the ETAS model is identical to its criticality parameter because its magnitude density is separable from the full intensity. More generally, however, these two values differ and thus place separate conditions on model stability. As an illustration of the difference and of the importance of the stability conditions, we employ a version of the BASS model, reformulated to ensure the possibility of stationarity. In addition, we analyze the magnitude distributions of successive generations of the BASS model via analytical and numerical methods, and find that the compound density differs substantially from a Gutenberg-Richter distribution, unless the process is essentially subcritical (branching ratio less than 1) or the magnitude dependence between the parent event and the direct offspring is weak

Phase transitions and the internal noise structure of nonlinear Schr\"odi nger equation solitons

We predict phase-transitions in the quantum noise characteristics of systems described by the quantum nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation, showing them to be related to the solitonic field transition at half the fundamental soliton amplitude. These phase-transitions are robust with respect to Raman noise and scattering losses. We also describe the rich internal quantum noise structure of the solitonic fields in the vicinity of the phase-transition. For optical coherent quantum solitons, this leads to the prediction that eliminating the peak side-band noise due to the electronic nonlinearity of silica fiber by spectral filtering leads to the optimal photon-number noise reduction of a fundamental soliton.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure

Metal abundances in PG1159 stars from Chandra and FUSE spectroscopy

We investigate FUSE spectra of three PG1159 stars and do not find any evidence for iron lines. From a comparison with NLTE models we conclude a deficiency of 1-1.5 dex. We speculate that iron was transformed into heavier elements. A soft X-ray Chandra spectrum of the unique H- and He-deficient star H1504+65 is analyzed. We find high neon and magnesium abundances and confirm that H1504+65 is the bare core of either a C-O or a O-Ne-Mg white dwarf.Comment: To be published in: Proceedings 13th European Workshop on White Dwarfs, NATO Science Series, 4 pages, 1 figur

Characterization of a Second Bovine Rotavirus Serotype

Bovine rotavirus (BRV) V 1005 was characterized by two-way cross-neutralization tests as a second serotype of BRV. Virions and inner shell particles of 65 nm and 55 nm diameter respectively, and empty capsids of 65 nm and 55 nm diameter were separated by density gradient centrifugation. Three polypeptides of molecular weight 60,000, 36,000 and 28,000 (minor protein) could be identified in the outer shell of virions and in the larger empty capsids. Inner shell particles contained three polypeptides of molecular weight 105,000, 83,000 and 43,000. Both sizes of empty capsids showed two polypeptides of molecular weight 75,000 and 55,000 not found in virions. Pulse-labelling of infected cells revealed eight major and three minor intracellular viral polypeptides. Viral polypeptide synthesis started at about 6 hours p.i. and correlated in time with double-stranded RNA synthesis. As soon as viral polypeptide synthesis was detectable, newly synthesized viral polypeptides were incorporated into intracellular viral particles. Radioactive viral polypeptides appeared without a longer lag period in extracellular viruses from 6 hours p.i. onward

XYZ-polarisation analysis of diffuse magnetic neutron scattering from single crystals

Studies of diffuse magnetic scattering largely benefit from the use of a multi-detector covering wide scattering angles. Therefore, the different contributions to the diffuse scattering that originate from magnetic, nuclear coherent, and nuclear spin-incoherent scattering can be separated by the so-called XYZ-polarization analysis. In the past this method has been successfully applied to the analysis of diffuse scattering by polycrystalline samples of magnetic disordered materials. Single crystal studies that exploit the vector properties of spin correlations are of particular interest for furthering our understanding of frustration effects in magnetism. Based on the symmetry properties of polarised scattering a suitable extension of the conventional XYZ method has been derived, which allows for the complete separation and the analysis of features of diffuse magnetic scattering from single crystals.Comment: 6 pages 2 figures, revised as published, one Eq. removed, minor corrections, typos correcte

Volumetric microvascular imaging of human retina using optical coherence tomography with a novel motion contrast technique

Phase variance-based motion contrast imaging is demonstrated using a spectral domain optical coherence tomography system for the in vivo human retina. This contrast technique spatially identifies locations of motion within the retina primarily associated with vasculature. Histogram-based noise analysis of the motion contrast images was used to reduce the motion noise created by transverse eye motion. En face summation images created from the 3D motion contrast data are presented with segmentation of selected retinal layers to provide non-invasive vascular visualization comparable to currently used invasive angiographic imaging. This motion contrast technique has demonstrated the ability to visualize resolution-limited vasculature independent of vessel orientation and flow velocity

Semihard Interactions in Nuclear Collisions Based on a Unified Approach to High Energy Scattering

Our ultimate goal is the construction of a model for interactions of two nuclei in the energy range between several tens of GeV up to several TeV per nucleon in the centre-of-mass system. Such nuclear collisions are very complex, being composed of many components, and therefore some strategy is needed to construct a reliable model. The central point of our approach is the hypothesis, that the behavior of high energy interactions is universal (universality hypothesis). So, for example, the hadronization of partons in nuclear interactions follows the same rules as the one in electron-positron annihilation; the radiation of off-shell partons in nuclear collisions is based on the same principles as the one in deep inelastic scattering. We construct a model for nuclear interactions in a modular fashion. The individual modules, based on the universality hypothesis, are identified as building blocks for more elementary interactions (like e^+ e^-, lepton-proton), and can therefore be studied in a much simpler context. With these building blocks under control, we can provide a quite reliable model for nucleus-nucleus scattering, providing in particular very useful tests for the complicated numerical procedures using Monte Carlo techniques.Comment: 10 pages, no figures; Proc. of the ``Workshop on Nuclear Matter in Different Phases and Transitions'', Les Houches, France, March 31 - April 10, 199

Adaptively Smoothed Seismicity Earthquake Forecasts for Italy

We present a model for estimating the probabilities of future earthquakes of magnitudes m > 4.95 in Italy. The model, a slightly modified version of the one proposed for California by Helmstetter et al. (2007) and Werner et al. (2010), approximates seismicity by a spatially heterogeneous, temporally homogeneous Poisson point process. The temporal, spatial and magnitude dimensions are entirely decoupled. Magnitudes are independently and identically distributed according to a tapered Gutenberg-Richter magnitude distribution. We estimated the spatial distribution of future seismicity by smoothing the locations of past earthquakes listed in two Italian catalogs: a short instrumental catalog and a longer instrumental and historical catalog. The bandwidth of the adaptive spatial kernel is estimated by optimizing the predictive power of the kernel estimate of the spatial earthquake density in retrospective forecasts. When available and trustworthy, we used small earthquakes m>2.95 to illuminate active fault structures and likely future epicenters. By calibrating the model on two catalogs of different duration to create two forecasts, we intend to quantify the loss (or gain) of predictability incurred when only a short but recent data record is available. Both forecasts, scaled to five and ten years, were submitted to the Italian prospective forecasting experiment of the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). An earlier forecast from the model was submitted by Helmstetter et al. (2007) to the Regional Earthquake Likelihood Model (RELM) experiment in California, and, with over half of the five-year experiment over, the forecast performs better than its competitors.Comment: revised manuscript. 22 pages, 3 figures, 2 table