Ionized Gas in the Galactic Center: New Observations and Interpretation

We present new observations of the [Ne II] emission from the ionized gas in Sgr A West with improved resolution and sensitivity. About half of the emission comes from gas with kinematics indicating it is orbiting in a plane tipped about 25\degree\ from the Galactic plane. This plane is consistent with that derived previously for the circumnuclear molecular disk and the northern arm and western arc ionized features. However, unlike most previous studies, we conclude that the ionized gas is not moving along the ionized features, but on more nearly circular paths. The observed speeds are close to, but probably somewhat less than expected for orbital motions in the potential of the central black hole and stars and have a small inward component. The spatial distribution of the emission is well fitted by a spiral pattern. We discuss possible physical explanations for the spatial distribution and kinematics of the ionized gas, and conclude that both may be best explained by a one-armed spiral density wave, which also accounts for both the observed low velocities and the inward velocity component. We suggest that a density wave may result from the precession of elliptical orbits in the potential of the black hole and stellar mass distribution.Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures, ApJ in pres

Demographic Rate Variability of Bighead and Silver Carps Along an Invasion Gradient

Invasive Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix have infested and caused largescale ecological and economic damage to the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers. We compiled demographic data from 42,995 fish from 23 pools in the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers, which universities and management agencies previously collected as part of management, monitoring, and research activities. We used this data set to test whether demographic rates (length–weight relations including body condition, mortality, growth curves, and female maturity curves) varied among subpopulations across a gradient of invasion status. We found that length–weight relations and growth curves varied among subpopulations, whereas maturity curves did not. Our findings demonstrated spatial variability in demographic rates for Bighead and Silver carp across a broad geographic area in relation to invasion status and river conditions. Herein, we provide general subpopulation management options and present different hypotheses to explain the observed spatial variability in demographic rates.This article is published as Erickson RA, Kallis JL, Coulter AA, Coulter DP, MacNamara R, Lamer JT, Bouska WW, Irons KS, Solomon LE, Stump AJ, Weber MJ, Brey MK, Sullivan CJ, Sass GG, Garvey JE, Glover DC. 2021. Demographic rate variability of Bighead and Silver Carps along an invasion gradient. Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management 12(2):338–353; e1944-687X. https://doi.org/10.3996/JFWM-20-070

Geographic-Scale Harvest Program to Promote Invasivorism of Bigheaded Carps

Invasive bigheaded carps, genus Hypophthalmichthys, are spreading throughout the Mississippi River basin. To explore the efficacy of a consumer-based market (i.e., invasivorism) to manage them, we developed a conceptual model and evaluated three harvest approaches—direct contracted removal, volume-based incentives (“fisher-side” control), and set-quota harvest (“market-side” control). We quantified the efficacy of these approaches and potential population impact in the Illinois River. Contracted removal was effective for suppressing small populations at the edge of the range but cannot support a market. “Fisher-side” removals totaled 225,372 kg in one year. However, participation was low, perhaps due to reporting requirements for fishers. The “market-side”, set-quota approach removed &gt;1.3 million kg of bigheaded carp in less than 6 months. Larger, older fish were disproportionately harvested, which may hinder the ability to suppress population growth. Total density declined in one river reach, and harvest may reduce upstream movement toward the invasion fronts. With sufficient market demand, harvest may control bigheaded carp. However, lack of processing infrastructure and supply chain bottlenecks could constrain harvest, particularly at low commodity prices. Given the geographical scale of this invasion and complicated harvest logistics, concerns about economic dependence on invasivorism that encourage stock enhancement are likely unmerited.</jats:p

Geographic-Scale Harvest Program to Promote Invasivorism of Bigheaded Carps

Invasive bigheaded carps, genus Hypophthalmichthys, are spreading throughout the Mississippi River basin. To explore the efficacy of a consumer-based market (i.e., invasivorism) to manage them, we developed a conceptual model and evaluated three harvest approaches&mdash;direct contracted removal, volume-based incentives (&ldquo;fisher-side&rdquo; control), and set-quota harvest (&ldquo;market-side&rdquo; control). We quantified the efficacy of these approaches and potential population impact in the Illinois River. Contracted removal was effective for suppressing small populations at the edge of the range but cannot support a market. &ldquo;Fisher-side&rdquo; removals totaled 225,372 kg in one year. However, participation was low, perhaps due to reporting requirements for fishers. The &ldquo;market-side&rdquo;, set-quota approach removed &gt;1.3 million kg of bigheaded carp in less than 6 months. Larger, older fish were disproportionately harvested, which may hinder the ability to suppress population growth. Total density declined in one river reach, and harvest may reduce upstream movement toward the invasion fronts. With sufficient market demand, harvest may control bigheaded carp. However, lack of processing infrastructure and supply chain bottlenecks could constrain harvest, particularly at low commodity prices. Given the geographical scale of this invasion and complicated harvest logistics, concerns about economic dependence on invasivorism that encourage stock enhancement are likely unmerited

Demographic Rate Variability of Bighead and Silver Carps Along an Invasion Gradient

Abstract Invasive Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix have infested and caused largescale ecological and economic damage to the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers. We compiled demographic data from 42,995 fish from 23 pools in the Illinois, Mississippi, and Ohio rivers, which universities and management agencies previously collected as part of management, monitoring, and research activities. We used this data set to test whether demographic rates (length–weight relations including body condition, mortality, growth curves, and female maturity curves) varied among subpopulations across a gradient of invasion status. We found that length–weight relations and growth curves varied among subpopulations, whereas maturity curves did not. Our findings demonstrated spatial variability in demographic rates for Bighead and Silver carp across a broad geographic area in relation to invasion status and river conditions. Herein, we provide general subpopulation management options and present different hypotheses to explain the observed spatial variability in demographic rates.</jats:p

Cost-effectiveness of Aflibercept Monotherapy vs Bevacizumab First Followed by Aflibercept If Needed for Diabetic Macular Edema

ImportanceThe DRCR Retina Network Protocol AC showed no significant difference in visual acuity outcomes over 2 years between treatment with aflibercept monotherapy and bevacizumab first with switching to aflibercept for suboptimal response in treating diabetic macular edema (DME). Understanding the estimated cost and cost-effectiveness of these approaches is important.ObjectiveTo evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of aflibercept monotherapy vs bevacizumab-first strategies for DME treatment.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsThis economic evaluation was a preplanned secondary analysis of a US randomized clinical trial of participants aged 18 years or older with center-involved DME and best-corrected visual acuity of 20/50 to 20/320 enrolled from December 15, 2017, through November 25, 2019.InterventionsAflibercept monotherapy or bevacizumab first, switching to aflibercept in eyes with protocol-defined suboptimal response.Main Outcomes and MeasuresBetween February and July 2022, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) in cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) over 2 years was assessed. Efficacy and resource utilization data from the randomized clinical trial were used with health utility mapping from the literature and Medicare unit costs.ResultsThis study included 228 participants (median age, 62 [range, 34-91 years; 116 [51%] female and 112 [49%] male; 44 [19%] Black or African American, 60 [26%] Hispanic or Latino, and 117 [51%] White) with 1 study eye. The aflibercept monotherapy group included 116 participants, and the bevacizumab-first group included 112, of whom 62.5% were eventually switched to aflibercept. Over 2 years, the cost of aflibercept monotherapy was $26 504 (95$24 796-$28 212) vs$13 929 (95% CI, $11 984-$15 874) for the bevacizumab-first group, a difference of $12 575 (95$9987-$15 163). The aflibercept monotherapy group gained 0.015 (95$837 077 per QALY gained compared with the bevacizumab-first group. Aflibercept could be cost-effective with an ICER of $100 000 per QALY if the price per dose were$305 or less or the price of bevacizumab was $1307 per dose or more.Conclusions and RelevanceVariability in individual needs will influence clinician and patient decisions about how to treat specific eyes with DME. While the bevacizumab-first group costs still averaged approximately$14 000 over 2 years, this approach, as used in this study, may confer substantial cost savings on a societal level without sacrificing visual acuity gains over 2 years compared with aflibercept monotherapy.</jats:sec