Assessment of Hydrologic Alterations in Elbe and Rhine Rivers, Germany

In light of recent anthropogenic-induced climate change, a burning question at present is how these changes influence the water regime of rivers, which are of vital importance for humans as well as for biota. In this study, we investigate the changes in the hydrologic regime of two major German rivers, Elbe and Rhine, after the middle of the 20th century. Here, we use the widely adopted Range of Variability Approach (RVA) method on daily streamflow data from five (Elbe) and seven (Rhine) hydrological stations to determine the variability and spatial pattern of hydrologic alterations. We discuss the potential effect of climate change on the water regime of these two rivers, as well as other potential causes. For both rivers, we find that some hydrologic parameters are highly altered, especially the number of reversals, indicating higher variability. The highest impact is found at Ems hydrological station on Rhine River. The order of affected hydrological stations follows mostly the downstream course of both rivers. Our study indicates that the hydrological behavior of Elbe and Rhine Rivers has altered since the middle of the 20th century, a probable consequence of climate change. These hydrologic alterations can lead to undesirable ecological effects on local biota

Forecasting low flow conditions months in advance through teleconnection patterns, with a special focus on summer 2018

Over the past decades, Europe has been affected by several low flow periods which had substantial impacts on the hydrology of the rivers themselves as well as on the society and economy. Low flow periods have a direct impact on the environment, on the inland waterway navigation, on the hydropower production as well as on the sediment management, among others. Similar to floods, low flows are naturally occurring phenomena which can significantly hinder different uses and functions of the rivers and impact the aquatic system and the water quality. Moreover, it is projected that, in the future, climate change might lead to drier summers over the European region and therefore to more frequent and severe low flow periods. The results presented here show that the summer 2018 low flow situation, over the Rhine and Elbe Rivers basin, could have been predicted up to two seasons ahead by using previous months' sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, precipitation, mean air temperature and soil moisture. The lagged relationship between the predictand (e.g. seasonal streamflow) and the climate and oceanic predictors varies between 1 month (e.g. precipitation) up to 6 months (e.g. sea surface temperature). Taking into account that all predictors are available in real-time, the forecast scheme can be used to provide early warnings for the upcoming low flow situations, thus offering the possibility for better management of the water resources

Extreme Floods in the Eastern Part of Europe: Large-Scale Drivers and Associated Impacts

The role of the large-scale atmospheric circulation in producing heavy rainfall events and floods in the eastern part of Europe, with a special focus on the Siret and Prut catchment areas (Romania), is analyzed in this study. Moreover, a detailed analysis of the socio-economic impacts of the most extreme flood events (e.g., July 2008, June–July 2010, and June 2020) is given. Analysis of the largest flood events indicates that the flood peaks have been preceded up to 6 days in advance by intrusions of high Potential Vorticity (PV) anomalies toward the southeastern part of Europe, persistent cut-off lows over the analyzed region, and increased water vapor transport over the catchment areas of Siret and Prut Rivers. The vertically integrated water vapor transport prior to the flood peak exceeds 300 kg m-1 s-1, leading to heavy rainfall events. We also show that the implementation of the Flood Management Plan in Romania had positive results during the 2020 flood event compared with the other flood events, when the authorities took several precaution measurements that mitigated in a better way the socio-economic impact and risks of the flood event. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of large-scale atmospheric circulation and water vapor transport as drivers of extreme flooding in the eastern part of Europe and could lead to a better flood forecast and flood risk management

Development of a monthly to seasonal forecast framework tailored to inland waterway transport in central Europe

Traditionally, navigation-related forecasts in central Europe cover short- to medium-range lead times linked to the travel times of vessels to pass the main waterway bottlenecks leaving the loading ports. Without doubt, this aspect is still essential for navigational users, but in light of the growing political intention to use the free capacity of the inland waterway transport in Europe, additional lead time supporting strategic decisions is more and more in demand. However, no such predictions offering extended lead times of several weeks up to several months currently exist for considerable parts of the European waterway network. This paper describes the set-up of a monthly to seasonal forecasting system for the German stretches of the international waterways of the Rhine, Danube and Elbe rivers. Two competitive forecast approaches have been implemented: the dynamical set-up forces a hydrological model with post-processed outputs from ECMWF general circulation model System 4, whereas the statistical approach is based on the empirical relationship ("teleconnection") of global oceanic, climate and regional hydro-meteorological data with river flows. The performance of both forecast methods is evaluated in relation to the climatological forecast (ensemble of historical streamflow) and the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction approach (ESP, ensemble based on historical meteorology) using common performance indicators (correlation coefficient; mean absolute error, skill score; mean squared error, skill score; and continuous ranked probability, skill score) and an impact-based evaluation quantifying the potential economic gain. The following four key findings result from this study: (1) as former studies for other regions of central Europe indicate, the accuracy and/or skill of the meteorological forcing used has a larger effect than the quality of initial hydrological conditions for relevant stations along the German waterways. (2) Despite the predictive limitations on longer lead times in central Europe, this study reveals the existence of a valuable predictability of streamflow on monthly up to seasonal timescales along the Rhine, upper Danube and Elbe waterways, and the Elbe achieves the highest skill and economic value. (3) The more physically based and the statistical approach are able to improve the predictive skills and economic value compared to climatology and the ESP approach. The specific forecast skill highly depends on the forecast location, the lead time and the season. (4) Currently, the statistical approach seems to be most skilful for the three waterways investigated. The lagged relationship between the monthly and/or seasonal streamflow and the climatic and/or oceanic variables vary between 1 month (e.g. local precipitation, temperature and soil moisture) up to 6 months (e.g. sea surface temperature). Besides focusing on improving the forecast methodology, especially by combining the individual approaches, the focus is on developing useful forecast products on monthly to seasonal timescales for waterway transport and to operationalize the related forecasting service

Seasonal modes of dryness and wetness variability over Europe and their connections with large scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature

The relationship between the seasonal modes of interannual variability of a multiscalar drought index over Europe and the large-scale atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly fields is investigated through statistical analysis of observed and reanalysis data. It is shown that the seasonal modes of dryness and wetness variability over Europe and their relationship with the large-scale atmospheric circulation and global SST anomaly fields differ from one season to another. During winter, the dominant modes of dryness and wetness variability are influenced by the Arctic Oscillation (AO)/North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Scandinavian pattern, the East Atlantic pattern and the East Atlantic/Western Russia pattern. The spring dryness/wetness modes are influenced mainly by the AO, Polar/Eurasian patterns and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation conditions. The phases (positive or negative) and the superposition of these large scale variability modes play a significant role in modulating the drought conditions over Europe. During summer, the atmospheric blocking is one of the main drivers of dryness and wetness conditions, while during autumn dryness/wetness conditions variability can be related to the NAO or with a wave train like pattern in the geopotential height at 850mb, which develops over the Atlantic Ocean and extends up to Siberia. It is also found that the response of the dryness and wetness conditions to global SST is more regional in summer, compared to the other seasons, when local processes may play a more important role

Using Archives of Past Floods to Estimate Future Flood Hazards

Worldwide, floods cause greater economic damage and loss of human life than any other type of natural disaster. We urgently need better assessments of flood hazards to reduce the societal impact of extreme floods caused by Earth’s rapidly changing climate, among other factors. One way of assessing flood hazards is to examine past floods using the records provided by hydrological instruments. We can extend this knowledge back through the Holocene period or beyond using historical documents and natural archives (including alluvial, marine, and lake sediments; tree rings; and cave formations). These extended records can provide valuable information about long-term flood trends.Peer Reviewe

Rivers in the sky, flooding on the ground: the role of atmospheric rivers in inland flooding in central Europe

The role of large-scale atmospheric circulation and atmospheric rivers (ARs) in producing extreme flooding and heavy rainfall events in the lower part of the Rhine catchment area is examined in this study. Analysis of the largest 10 floods in the lower Rhine, between 1817 and 2015, shows that all these extreme flood peaks have been preceded up to 7 d in advance by intense moisture transport from the tropical North Atlantic basin in the form of narrow bands also known as atmospheric rivers. Most of the ARs associated with these flood events are embedded in the trailing fronts of the extratropical cyclones. The typical large-scale atmospheric circulation leading to heavy rainfall and flooding in the lower Rhine is characterized by a low pressure center south of Greenland, which migrates toward Europe, and a stable high pressure center over the northern part of Africa and the southern part of Europe and projects on the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. On the days preceding the flood peaks, lower (upper) level convergence (divergence) is observed over the analyzed region, which indicates strong vertical motions and heavy rainfall. Vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) exceeds 600 kg m−1 s−1 for the largest floods, marking these as very strong ARs. The results presented in this study offer new insights regarding the importance of moisture transport as a driver of extreme flooding in the lower part of the Rhine catchment area, and we show, for the first time, that ARs are a useful tool for the identification of potentially damaging floods in inland Europe