Development of a reoffending measure using the Police National Computer database.

This work aims to develop a reoffending score for assessing the likelihood of an offender reoffending within a certain fixed period of time. Currently, OGRS - the Offenders Group Reconviction Score - is a heavily used measure for assessing reconviction scores of a group or set of offenders. However, dates of conviction can be far removed from the reality of offending. The aim in this report is to develop a new approach which focuses on 'offending' rather than 'conviction' and, hence, to provide a 'reoffending measure' rather than a 'reconviction measure'. While OGRS has been remarkably successful, there is a need to develop a new measure. There are various reasons - to make offending behaviour rather than convictions as the primary focus of interest; the existing score is somewhat outdated; to confront the problems with the existing OGRS score; to improve the documentation relating to the construction of a measure; and to make the measure more 'user-friendly' for the practitioners

Developing Measures of Severity and Frequency of Reconviction

This report examines the scope for focusing on the seriousness and frequency of recidivism and presents methodology for determining how to measure offence seriousness, and how to measure frequency of offending. It also discusses the advantages and disadvantages of combining these two measures into a combined seriousness/frequency score. However, one needs to recognise that the task of providing alternative measures of recidivism is not simply a technical exercise, for there are both philosophical and practical issues to confront. Hence, while the main body of the report focuses largely on the feasibility of producing the alternative measures and provides some solid evidence of developing these approaches (sections 3-5), the philosophical issues – which embrace definitional, conceptual and moral concerns – are not overlooked (see section 2). Furthermore, some of the practical issues of introducing these measures are recognised in the final section (section 6). First, however, what are the stated aims and objectives of the work

Investigating the relationship between the diversity index and frequency of offending

Purpose Recent work has suggested that specialization is correlated with frequency of offending, but this observed relationship may actually depend on the measuring instrument used. The diversity index is a common method of measuring specialization in such studies, and this paper investigates whether this observed correlation is due in part to the mathematical form of the diversity index itself. The criminological question as to whether specialization increases or decreases with offense frequency cannot be answered until the behavior of the diversity index is better understood. We use simulations to investigate the behavior of the diversity index where the number of crimes is small (the small sample problem), simulating from known distributions of offending. Two of the distributions used in the simulation are defined to be unspecialized. The first uses an equiprobable distribution of offenses across offense categories. The second uses the distribution of offenses in the British population. The third distribution is from a specialist distribution, and assumes that different offenders have different probabilities of choosing particular offenses. We report these simulations for both three and ten crime categories. To set the simulated results in context, we use an extract from the UK Police National Computer to investigate the criminological question as to whether specialization increases with offense frequency. For all three simulation schemes, the diversity index $D$ increases steeply with the frequency of offending $N$ at low frequencies, with the increase slowing around $N=20$, and becoming flat when the number of offenses $N$ reaches 500. This relationship is observed for both three crime categories and ten crime categories. The observed relationship of D with N can be used to correct the diversity index to allow the true relationship of specialization with offense frequency to be investigated. We recommend that the diversity index be used with caution when there are small numbers of crimes over fixed time periods. Any increase or decrease of the diversity index over the criminal career life course may reflect the behavior of the measurement tool with the number of offenses, rather than any change in specialization itself. Applying one of the suggested suitable correction methods to $D$ will mitigate this problem

Using the UK general offender database as a means to measure and analyse Organised Crime.

Purpose Organised Crime is notoriously difficult to define and measure, resulting in limited empirical evidence to inform policy makers and practitioners. This study explores the feasibility of identifying a greater number of organized crime offenders, currently captured (but invisible), within an existing national general crime database. Methodology All 2.1 million recorded offenders, captured over a four year period on the UK Police National Computer (PNC), were filtered across three criteria associated with organized crime (co-offending, commission of specific offences, three years imprisonment or more). The 4109 ‘organized crime’ offenders, identified by the process, were compared with ‘general’ and ‘serious’ offender control groups across a variety of personal and demographic variables. Findings Organized crime prosecutions are not random but concentrate in specific geographic areas and constitute 0.2% of the offender population. Offenders can be differentiated from general crime offenders on such measures as: criminal onset age, offence type and criminal recidivism. Research implications Using an offence based methodology, rather than relying on offenders identified through police proactive investigations, can provide empirical information from existing data sets, across a diverse range of legislative areas and cultures. This allows academics to enhance their analysis of organized crime, generating richer evidence on which policy makers and practitioners can more effectively deliver preventative and disruptive tactics. Originality This is the first time an ‘offence based’ methodology has been used in differentiating organised crime from other offenders in a general crime database

Gambling harm and crime careers

Incarcerated populations across the world have been found to be consistently and significantly more vulnerable to problem gambling than general populations in the same countries. In an effort to gain a more specific understanding of this vulnerability the present study applied latent class analysis and criminal career theory to gambling data collected from a sample of English and Scottish, male and female prisoners (N=1057). The analysis found six clusters measured by responses to the Problem Gambling Severity Index (PGSI), primarily distinguished by loss chasing behaviour. Longitudinal offending data drawn from the Police National Computer database found four criminal career types, distinguished by frequency and persistence over time. A significant association was found between higher level loss chasing and high rate offending in criminal careers. High rate offenders whose offending peaked in their mid 20’s were 5.3 times more likely to be higher level loss chasers and high rate chronic persistent offenders 3.7 times more likely than other criminal career types. Theories that link gambling, offending and impulse control are discussed and targeted interventions are proposed

Quality of sick child care delivered by Health Surveillance Assistants in Malawi

Objective To assess the quality of care provided by Health Surveillance Assistants (HSAs)—a cadre of community-based health workers—as part of a national scale-up of community case management of childhood illness (CCM) in Malawi. Methods Trained research teams visited a random sample of HSAs (n = 131) trained in CCM and provided with initial essential drug stocks in six districts, and observed the provision of sick child care. Trained clinicians conducted ‘gold-standard' reassessments of the child. Members of the survey team also interviewed caregivers and HSAs and inspected drug stocks and patient registers. Findings HSAs provided correct treatment with antimalarials to 79% of the 241 children presenting with uncomplicated fever, with oral rehydration salts to 69% of the 93 children presenting with uncomplicated diarrhoea and with antibiotics to 52% of 58 children presenting with suspected pneumonia (cough with fast breathing). About one in five children (18%) presented with danger signs. HSAs correctly assessed 37% of children for four danger signs by conducting a physical exam, and correctly referred 55% of children with danger signs. Conclusion Malawi's CCM programme is a promising strategy for increasing coverage of sick child treatment, although there is much room for improvement, especially in the correct assessment and treatment of suspected pneumonia and the identification and referral of sick children with danger signs. However, HSAs provided sick child care at levels of quality similar to those provided in first-level health facilities in Malawi, and quality should improve if the Ministry of Health and partners act on the results of this assessmen

Mortality rates in children, young people, and young adults with JIA: an observational study using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD)

OBJECTIVES: Many rheumatological conditions have increased mortality rates; however, there is conflicting evidence regarding the impact of juvenile idiopathic arthritis (JIA) on mortality. This analysis aimed to calculate the all-cause mortality rate of patients with JIA, compared with (a) matched-control patients and (b) the general population mortality estimates. METHODS: Using the UK General Practice data Clinical Practice Research Datalink, JIA cases starting <16 years old from England were included, matched 4-to-1 with non-JIA controls (birth year, gender, practice). Exposure started on first JIA-code date (matched-date for controls) or January 1, 2000, whichever was latest. Follow-up continued until December 31, 2018, or death, whichever was first. Cox-proportional hazards models compared mortality in JIA versus matched controls. JIA rates were stratified by systemic versus non-systemic JIA. Standardised mortality rates (SMRs) were generated for JIA versus general population estimates (calendar year, age, gender). RESULTS: There were 4762 patients with JIA (30 deaths) and 13 957 matched controls (27 deaths); patient demographics were similar between cohorts. Mortality rate for JIA was 6.2/10 000 person years (95% CI: 4.3-8.9), and 1.9/10 000 person years (95% CI: 1.3-2.8) for matched controls; JIA patients had 3.3 times higher mortality (95% CI: 2.0-5.5). Patients with systemic JIA had 3.3 times higher mortality (95% CI: 1.6-6.9) versus those with non-systemic JIA. The SMR for JIA was 2.9 (95% CI: 2.1-4.2). Eighteen (60%) JIA deaths occurred before 2012. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis calculated mortality rates in young people with JIA in England. Death in young people with JIA is exceedingly rare. Higher rates were observed in patients with systemic JIA. Over half the deaths occurred prior to 2012 when biologic treatment, particularly for systemic JIA, was limited