61 research outputs found

    Phase Space Reconstruction from Economic Time Series Data: Improving Models of Complex Real-World Dynamic Systems

    Get PDF
    Failure of economic models to anticipate the global financial crisis illustrates the need for modeling to better capture complex real-world dynamics. Conventional models—in which economic variables evolve toward equilibria or fluctuate about equilibria in response to exogenous random shocks—are ill-equipped to portray complex real-world dynamics in which economic variables may cycle aperiodically along low-dimensional ‘strange attractors’. We present a method developed in the physics literature—‘phase space reconstruction’—that reconstructs strange attractors present in real-world dynamical systems using time series data on a single variable. Phase space reconstruction provides pictures of real-world dynamics that can guide model specificationphase space reconstruction, time series data, economic dynamics, Agribusiness, Agricultural and Food Policy, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety, Food Security and Poverty, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty,

    Impacts of Biofuels on Water Supply: Proposed Cures May Worsen the Disease

    Get PDF
    water, conservation, biofuels, irrigation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q25, Q48,

    DAIRY DEREGULATION AND LOW-INPUT DAIRY PRODUCTION: A BIOECONOMIC EVALUATION

    Get PDF
    Deregulation of the Australian dairy industry could affect the utilization of resources by milk producers and the profitability of dairy production. In this study we examine the feed mix that dairy producers use, both pastures and supplements, under partial and total deregulation. We are particularly interested in the interaction of pasture utilization and farm profitability. The results of this research demonstrate that profitable low-input dairy is constrained by the most limiting resource, feed supplied by pasture, and that the interactions between economic and biological processes are critical to farm profitability.Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics,

    OPTIMAL CONTROL OF PEST RESISTANCE TO TRANSGENIC CROP VARIETIES

    Get PDF
    Transgenic corn varieties entered the market in 1996. These plant varieties carry a gene from the soil bacterium Bacillus thuringiensis kurstaki, Bt, that makes the plant produce a toxin deadly to the pest insect European Corn Borer (ECB) Ostrinia nubilalis (Hübner). Since ECB may build up genetic resistance to this toxin, the growers of transgenic corn varieties are required to plant a portion of their field (refuge) with regular corn. This requirement is expected to prolong the efficiency of Bt corn in combating the ECB because some non-resistant pests can survive in the refuge, and thereby dilute the build-up of resistance in the overall pest population. A fixed refuge size of 20 percent is the currently recommended "rule-of-thumb" by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Past work has searched for an economically-optimal refuge size utilizing discrete-time simulation approaches in which refuge size is treated as an exogenous parameter whose optimal value is found through numerical iteration. The objective of this work is to fine-tune parametric refuge specifications by formulating a bioeconomic model capable of endogenously determining the optimal trajectory of refuge sizes over time via an analytical optimal-control rule. The model will provide novel comparative statics/dynamics results demonstrating the sensitivity of the optimal trajectory to important economic and biological parameters.Crop Production/Industries,

    DYNAMICS OF OPTIMAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN PASTURE PRODUCTION AND MILK YIELDS OF AUSTRALIAN DAIRY FARMS

    Get PDF
    Deregulation of the Australian dairy industry could effect the utilization of resources by milk producers. In this study we examine the feed input mix dairy producers use, both pastures and supplements, prior to and after deregulation. We are particularly interested in the interaction of pasture utilization and farm profitability.dairy production, pasture utilization, deregulation, Land Economics/Use, Livestock Production/Industries,

    Phase Space Reconstruction and Nonlinear Equilibrium Dynamics in the United States Beef Market

    Get PDF
    This paper investigates dynamic interactions in the US beef market using phase space reconstruction, which has been developed to analyze nonlinear dynamical systems. This approach provides important and unique empirical insights into consumers behavior in the beef market. Our results from a phase space reconstruction analysis demonstrate distinct differences between intertemporal short run impacts from food safety outbreaks (e.g., E. Coli) and longer run health effects (e.g., cholesterol). Adjustments due to factors such as cholesterol are permanent changes and do not affect the manner by which people consume, while consumers react to food safety scares by adjusting consumption for a short period of time and then returning to their normal steady state cycle of consumption.nonlinear time series, phase space reconstruction, food safety, health effects, Livestock Production/Industries, Marketing,

    The Hammer Clause of the Reclamation Reform Act of 1982

    Get PDF

    AN INTRASEASONAL BIOECONOMIC MODEL OF PLRV NET NECROSIS

    Get PDF
    A bioeconomic model is developed as an IPM planning tool to combat PLRV net necrosis in the PNW potato industry. Environmental/biological and production processes are linked to marketing activities using discrete time control. We find that pesticides can be optimally timed to reduce applications and still protect against net necrosis.Crop Production/Industries, Environmental Economics and Policy,

    IRRIGATION DISTRICT ADOPTION OF WATER CONSERVING RATE STRUCTURES

    Get PDF
    A binary choice model was used to identify the attributes that influence irrigation district adoption of conservation rate structures. Using principles of rate design and irrigation district administration as a framework, measures of irrigation district rate structure objectives and physical and economic conditions were developed. The factors investigated characterize the constraints under which districts operate, value and cost of water, quantity of water delivered and revenue risk for districts. Rate structure adoption was predicted with over 75% accuracy. Both significant and non-significant factors are key to understanding rate choice. Districts were more likely to adopt conservation rate pricing when the cost of water to farmers was greater, higher value crops were grown and in areas with warmer and longer growing seasons. These conditions may be interpreted as reflecting the presence of greater opportunity costs in allocating water between low and higher valued uses. Conservation rate pricing was less likely to be adopted by districts where the proportion of alfalfa to total acreage was higher and with higher per acre deliveries of water. Somewhat surprisingly, annual variation in water deliveries (which should increase the risk of revenue shortfalls) and size of the district (larger districts being more sophisticated) have little bearing on the type of rate structure adopted.Environmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

    EMERGING AGRICULTURAL WATER CONSERVATION PRICE INCENTIVES

    Get PDF
    Recent Bureau of Reclamation policies encourage or require irrigation districts to adopt price conservation incentives. Using unpublished survey results and new district-level information, we examine the rate structures and incentives of district water pricing. Our findings reveal that the majority of districts use fixed charges independent of the quantity of water delivered and that most conservation rate structures recently implemented are designed so that the first tier quantity allocation satisfies most crop water needs. Although other district management objectives may be satisfied, price incentives are diminished or nonexistent. The question of whether conservation is being achieved is tautological and depends on how each district defines conservation.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,
    corecore