How organized is deep convection over Germany?

Deep moist convection shows a tendency to organize into mesoscale structures. To be able to understand the potential effect of convective organization on the climate, one needs first to characterize organization. In this study, we systematically characterize the organizational state of convection over Germany based on two years of cloud-top observations derived from the Meteosat Second Generation satellite and of precipitation cores detected by the German C-band radar network. The organizational state of convection is characterized by commonly employed organization indices, which are mostly based on the object numbers, sizes and nearest-neighbour distances. According to the organization index Iorg, cloud tops and precipitation cores are found to be in an organized state for 69% and 92% of the time, respectively. There is an increase in rainfall when the number of objects and their sizes increase, independently of the organizational state. Case-studies of specific days suggest that convectively organized states correspond to either local multi-cell clusters, with less numerous, larger objects close to each other, or to scattered clusters, with more numerous, smaller organized objects spread out over the domain. For those days, simulations are performed with the large-eddy model ICON with grid spacings of 625, 312 and 156?m. Although the model underestimates rainfall and shows a too large cold cloud coverage, the organizational state is reasonably well represented without significant differences between the grid spacings

Deriving Boltzmann Equations from Kadanoff-Baym Equations in Curved Space-Time

To calculate the baryon asymmetry in the baryogenesis via leptogenesis scenario one usually uses Boltzmann equations with transition amplitudes computed in vacuum. However, the hot and dense medium and, potentially, the expansion of the universe can affect the collision terms and hence the generated asymmetry. In this paper we derive the Boltzmann equation in the curved space-time from (first-principle) Kadanoff-Baym equations. As one expects from general considerations, the derived equations are covariant generalizations of the corresponding equations in Minkowski space-time. We find that, after the necessary approximations have been performed, only the left-hand side of the Boltzmann equation depends on the space-time metric. The amplitudes in the collision term on the right--hand side are independent of the metric, which justifies earlier calculations where this has been assumed implicitly. At tree level, the matrix elements coincide with those computed in vacuum. However, the loop contributions involve additional integrals over the the distribution function.Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, extended discussion of the constraint equations and the solution for the spectral functio

Ensemble prediction for nowcasting with a convection-permitting model—I: description of the system and the impact of radar-derived surface precipitation rates

A key strategy to improve the skill of quantitative predictions of precipitation, as well as hazardous weather such as severe thunderstorms and flash floods is to exploit the use of observations of convective activity (e.g. from radar). In this paper, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (EPS) aimed at addressing the problems of forecasting localized weather events with relatively short predictability time scale and based on a 1.5 km grid-length version of the Met Office Unified Model is presented. Particular attention is given to the impact of using predicted observations of radar-derived precipitation intensity in the ensemble transform Kalman filter (ETKF) used within the EPS. Our initial results based on the use of a 24-member ensemble of forecasts for two summer case studies show that the convective-scale EPS produces fairly reliable forecasts of temperature, horizontal winds and relative humidity at 1 h lead time, as evident from the inspection of rank histograms. On the other hand, the rank histograms seem also to show that the EPS generates too much spread for forecasts of (i) surface pressure and (ii) surface precipitation intensity. These may indicate that for (i) the value of surface pressure observation error standard deviation used to generate surface pressure rank histograms is too large and for (ii) may be the result of non-Gaussian precipitation observation errors. However, further investigations are needed to better understand these findings. Finally, the inclusion of predicted observations of precipitation from radar in the 24-member EPS considered in this paper does not seem to improve the 1-h lead time forecast skill

SENSITIVITY OF PERTURBATION GROWTH TO FLOW CHARACTERISTICS AND SAMPLING STRATEGY

The chaotic nature of the weather/climate attractor intrinsically limits the deterministic skill of weather forecasts by promoting rapid growth of errors. In this study, such error growth is simulated by artificially perturbing the atmosphere at initial time, and its sensitivity to the chosen perturbation methodology and to the flow characteristics is investigated. The different simulations are integrated with the limited-area model LM run on a convection-resolving grid. Results demonstrate that the locations of growing disturbances are insensitive to the definition of the initial temperature perturbation. This can be explained through an analysis of the perturbation growth and propagation mechanisms. In particular, rapid radiation of the imposed initial disturbance through a sound wave and presence of specific flow characteristics (e.g. convective instability) appear to force localized error growth far remote from the initial perturbation

Entrainment and its dependency on environmental conditions and convective organization in convection-permitting simulations

In this study, we estimate bulk entrainment rates for deep convection in convection-permitting simulations, conducted over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, encompassing parts of Africa and South America. We find that, even though entrainment rates decrease with height in all regions, they are, when averaging between 600 and 800 hPa, generally higher over land than over ocean. This is so because, over Amazonia, shallow convection causes an increase of bulk entrainment rates at lower levels and because, over West Africa, where entrainment rates are highest, convection is organized in squall lines. These squall lines are associated with strong mesoscale convergence, causing more intense updrafts and stronger turbulence generation in the vicinity of updrafts, increasing the entrainment rates. With the exception of West Africa, entrainment rates differ less across regions than across different environments within the regions. In contrast to what is usually assumed in convective parameterizations, entrainment rates increase with environmental humidity. Moreover, over ocean, they increase with static stability, while over land, they decrease. In addition, confirming the results of a recent idealized study, entrainment rates increase with convective aggregation, except in regions dominated by squall lines, like over West Africa

The contribution of convection to the stratospheric water vapor: the first budget using a Global-Storm-Resolving Model

The deepest convection on Earth injects water in the tropical stratosphere, but its contribution to the global stratospheric water budget remains uncertain. The Global Storm-Resolving Model ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic is used to simulate the moistening of the lower stratosphere for 40 days during boreal summer. The decomposition of the water vapor budget in the tropical lower stratosphere (TLS, 10°S–30°N, and 17–20 km altitude) indicates that the average moistening (+21 Tg) over the simulated 40-day period is the result of the combined effect of the vertical water vapor transport from the troposphere (+27 Tg), microphysical phase changes and subgrid-scale transport (+2 Tg), partly compensated by horizontal water vapor export (−8 Tg). The very deep convective systems, explicitly represented thanks to the employed 2.5 km grid spacing of the model, are identified using the very low Outgoing Longwave Radiation of their cold cloud tops. The water vapor budget reveals that the vertical transport, the sublimation and the subgrid-scale transport at their top contribute together to 11% of the water vapor mass input into the TLS

Effect of soil moisture on diurnal convection and precipitation in large-eddy simulations

A determination of the sign and magnitude of the soil moisture-precipitation feedback relies either on observations, where synoptic variability is difficult to isolate, or on model simulations, which suffer from biases mainly related to poorly resolved convection. In this study, a large-eddy simulation model with a resolution of 250m is coupled to a land surface model and several idealized experiments mimicking the full diurnal cycle of convection are performed, starting from different spatially homogeneous soil moisture conditions. The goal is to determine under which conditions drier soils may produce more precipitation than wetter ones. The methodology of previous conceptual studies that have quantified the likelihood of convection to be triggered over wet or dry soils is followed but includes the production of precipitation. Although convection can be triggered earlier over dry soils than over wet soils under certain atmospheric conditions, total precipitation is found to always decrease over dry soils. By splitting the total precipitation into its magnitude and duration component, it is found that the magnitude strongly correlates with surface latent heat flux, hence implying a wet soil advantage. Because of this strong scaling, changes in precipitation duration caused by differences in convection triggering are not able to overcompensate for the lack of evaporation over dry soils. These results are further validated using two additional atmospheric soundings and a series of perturbed experiments that consider cloud radiative effects, as well as the effect of large-scale forcing, winds, and plants on the soil moisture-precipitation coupling

Simulating deep convection with a shallow convection scheme

Convective processes profoundly affect the global water and energy balance of our planet but remain a challenge for global climate modeling. Here we develop and investigate the suitability of a unified convection scheme, capable of handling both shallow and deep convection, to simulate cases of tropical oceanic convection, mid-latitude continental convection, and maritime shallow convection. To that aim, we employ large-eddy simulations (LES) as a benchmark to test and refine a unified convection scheme implemented in the Single-column Community Atmosphere Model (SCAM). Our approach is motivated by previous cloud-resolving modeling studies, which have documented the gradual transition between shallow and deep convection and its possible importance for the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle. <br></br> Analysis of the LES reveals that differences between shallow and deep convection, regarding cloud-base properties as well as entrainment/detrainment rates, can be related to the evaporation of precipitation. Parameterizing such effects and accordingly modifying the University of Washington shallow convection scheme, it is found that the new unified scheme can represent both shallow and deep convection as well as tropical and mid-latitude continental convection. Compared to the default SCAM version, the new scheme especially improves relative humidity, cloud cover and mass flux profiles. The new unified scheme also removes the well-known too early onset and peak of convective precipitation over mid-latitude continental areas