A schematic of evolutionary rescue.

<p>Following an environmental change, a population begins to decline as the wildtype suffers a fitness less than one. A rare mutant allele with fitness greater than one may increase in frequency, saving the population from extinction. Together, the two genotypes yield a characteristic U-shaped curve of total population size through time.</p

The probability that a population is saved by new mutation <i>versus</i> standing genetic variation.

<p>The standing genetic variation plays a greater role in rescue when <i>p</i>₀ > <i>u/r</i>. Simulations assume <i>N₀</i> = 10,000, <i>r</i> = 0.00333, <i>s</i> = 0.01 and <i>u</i> = 10⁻⁶ with 100, 000 realizations. Red line indicates <i>p</i>₀ = <i>u/r</i>.</p

The U-shaped curve for populations rescued by new mutation.

<p>100 randomly selected successful realizations in gray, mean of all successful realizations in black, Eq. 19 (expectation from new mutation) in red, Eq. 10 (expectation from standing variation) in blue. Ticks on X-axis represent observed (black) and predicted (red) <i>t_min</i> (Eq. 21) while ticks on the Y-axis represents observed (black) and predicted (red) <i>N_min</i> (Eq. 22). A) <i>N₀</i> = 10,000, <i>r</i> = 0.01, <i>s</i> = 0.02, <i>u</i> = 10⁻⁵ B) <i>N₀</i> = 100,000, <i>r</i> = 0.005, <i>s</i> = 0.015, <i>u</i> = 10⁻⁶; 10,000 realizations.</p

Time to minimum expected population size.

<p>Black lines are predicted <i>t_min</i> (Eq. 13), simulation results with <i>k</i> = 1 are red dots, simulation results with <i>k</i> = 10 are blue dots. Two values of <i>r</i> are used (see plot), <i>N₀</i> = 10,000. 5000 successful realizations for each set of parameters.</p

The U-shaped trajectory for populations rescued from standing variation.

<p>100 randomly selected successful realizations in gray, mean of all successful realizations in black, Eq. 6 (without the oversampling correction) in blue, Eq. 10 (with the oversampling correction) in red. Ticks on X-axis represent observed (black) and predicted (red) <i>t_min</i> (Eq. 13) while ticks on the Y-axis represents observed (black) and predicted (red) <i>N_min</i> (Eq. 14). A) <i>N₀</i> = 10,000, <i>r</i> = 0.01, <i>s</i> = 0.02, <i>k</i> = 1; B) <i>N₀</i> = 100,000, <i>r</i> = 0.01, <i>s</i> = 0.02, <i>k</i> = 1; 100,000 realizations.</p

Evolutionary biology is being transformed by increasing access to burgeoning data on variation in genomes, organisms, and the environment.

<p>All this can be connected to the Tree of Life (phylogeny), from populations to entire clades, and is enabled by new protocols and networks in biodiversity informatics.</p

Developing genetic and evolutionary tools for taxa with an extensive fossil record will be an important means of integrating the study of evolutionary pattern and process.

<p>Genomic sequence data for stickleback fish is now providing insight into evolutionary patterns, such as the reduction in the pelvic skeleton, manifest both in the fossil record and in extant populations <a href="http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pbio.1001466#pbio.1001466-Jones1" target="_blank">[83]</a>. Photograph courtesy Peter J. Park.</p