Intra & Inter-Regional Industry Shocks: A New Metric with an Application to Australasian Currency Union

We place regional industry structures at centre stage in currency union analysis, decomposing differences between regional and aggregate cycles into 'industry structure' and 'industry cycle' effects. The industry structure effect indicates whether a region's industry structure causes its cycle to deviate from the aggregate; the industry cycle effect indicates the importance of region-specific shocks in causing a deviation between cycles. We apply the methodology to Australasia. One region, ACT, has a material industry structure effect arising from its heavy central government concentration. No other region has a material industry structure effect; their cycles differ from the aggregate due to region-specific shocks.

Building Bridges: Treating a New Transport Link as a Real Option

A transportation investment that materially improves links between centres opens up previously unavailable options for new activities. Traditional cost-benefit analysis, that focuses on valuing benefits such as reduced travel time and safety improvements, does not adequately account for increased options for new activities arising from such an investment. Instead, real options theory must be added to the analysis to evaluate the full benefits of the new link. Two inter-related problems with real options analysis for practical use are that: (a) the nature of the options potentially being created are difficult to value, and (b) the standard mathematics of real options analysis is complex. Nevertheless, the intuition behind the role of real options analysis is straight-forward. This paper uses a specific example – Auckland’s Harbour Bridge and the Northern Motorway that stretches beyond it – to illustrate the importance of real options analysis. It combines an illustrative, multi-period model of the real options problem, that clearly identifies the option value created by a new investment, with data on the effects of the Harbour Bridge and related investments. The illustrative model highlights that the inclusion of real options factors may either increase or decrease the attractiveness of a proposed investment, and it identifies the type of factors that would lead one to invest even where a standard benefit-cost ratio is less than one. These factors are considered in the context of the Harbour Bridge investments, demonstrating their practical, as well as theoretical, importance.

Building Bridges: Treating a New Transport Link as a Real Option

A transportation investment that materially improves links between centres opens up previously unavailable options for new activities. Traditional cost-benefit analysis does not adequately take account of the value of this option; real options theory must be added to the analysis to evaluate the full benefits. This paper uses a specific example, Auckland’s Harbour Bridge, to motivate the importance of real options analysis. Using illustrative, multi-period models of the real options problem, it highlights how inclusion of real options factors may either increase or decrease the attractiveness of a proposed investment. The models identify situations in which it is optimal to invest even where a standard benefit-cost ratio is less than one.Transport investment; real options; cost-benefit analysis

New Zealand: A Typical Australasian Ecomony?

We examine trend economic developments in New Zealand and in each of Australia's six states and two territories (i.e. nine regions) in order to inform issues regarding economic policy harmonisation across Australasia. Our focus is on trend developments in GDP, population, GDP per capita and employment (each at regional level), and in sectoral industry shares within each region. By comparing New Zealand developments with those in the eight Australian regions, we infer whether New Zealand's developments have been typical of those experienced elsewhere in Australasia. Examination of development trends also indicates the nature of the development process across Australasian regions. For instance, we examine the extent to which certain regions are experiencing growth in high-value industries (such as business and financial services), and examine the degree to which some are dependent on primary industries, including agriculture and mining. Analysis of all the data indicates that, while New Zealand has some idiosyncratic features, it is reasonable to regard it as a "typical" Australasian economy in many respects.Australia, New Zealand, Economic Union, Sectoral Development

Commercial bank load loss recoveries

We present a new approach to analyse historical recovery rates on distressed bank assets. Our approach uses banks’ reported impaired assets and the corresponding specific provisions. The dynamics and drivers of this credit loss recovery proxy are studied for a comprehensive sample of Australian banks from 1989 to 2005. We find that macroeconomic and bank-specific factors influence banks’ estimates of loan loss recoveries, consistent with banks smoothing their earnings. In contrast with findings based on prices of distressed corporate bonds, banks record lower recoveries in years of strong economic growth

Insolvency and Economic Development: Regional Variation and Adjustment

This paper examines the determinants of the rate of forced insolvency in New Zealand. The study incorporates two key features. First, we use regional as well as national data to explain insolvencies. The data cover six regions which have had a variety of economic experiences over the sample period (1988-2003). Second, we explain the total rate of forced insolvency in New Zealand, including both personal bankruptcies and involuntary company liquidations. We find that increases in regional economic activity and regional property values (the latter representing collateral effects) reduce regional insolvencies. An increase in credit provision (increased leverage) raises the rate of insolvencies. In a low-inflation environment, a rise in the inflation rate reduces insolvencies, but this effect disappears in a high-inflation environment. We show that interactions between economic activity, leverage and property price shocks provide a rich understanding of how region-specific shocks can compound into significant localised economic cycles.Insolvency; liquidation; bankruptcy; collateral; regional economy

The Economics of Infrastructure Investment: Beyond Simple Cost Benefit Analysis

This non-technical ‘think-piece’ examines aspects of infrastructure project evaluation, concentrating on circumstances that may render a standard cost benefit analysis (CBA) inappropriate. It is designed to make infrastructure investors and planners think deeply about their assumptions and to broaden the range of issues that are taken into account. Issues considered include: the role of CBA; network effects (increasing returns to scale) and the endogeneity of resources within an economy; the valuation of productive versus consumptive benefits; the value of traded versus non-traded sector production; the role and choice of the discount rate; and the importance of considering option values when making infrastructure investment and disinvestment decisions.Infrastructure, Cost Benefit Analysis, Evaluation

Water, Water Somewhere: The Value of Water in a Drought-Prone Farming Region

Water is critical for agriculture, yet surprisingly few studies internationally have analysed the value placed on water in specific farming contexts. We do so using a rich longitudinal dataset for the Mackenzie District (Canterbury, New Zealand) over nineteen years, enabling us to extract the value placed by farmers on long-term access to irrigated water. New Zealand has a system of water consents under the Resource Management Act (RMA) that enables farmers with consents to extract specified quantities of water for agricultural purposes. Some water is extracted through large-scale irrigation infrastructure and other flows by more localised means; the RMA and the water consents themselves are a critical legal infrastructure underpinning farming. Using panel methods, we estimate property sale price and assessed value as a function of the size of the farm's water right (if it has one), farm characteristics, and the water right interacted with farm characteristics to determine how the value of a water consent varies according to local conditions. We find that flatter areas and areas with poorly draining soils benefit most from irrigation, possibly because the water is retained for longer on these properties. Drier areas appear to benefit more from irrigation than do areas with higher rainfall. Farms that are situated close to towns derive especially strong benefits from irrigation since these properties are most likely to have potential water-intensive land uses such as dairying and cropping that require access to processing facilities and/or an urban labour pool.irrigation, hedonics, water supply, New Zealand

Spatial Effects of ‘Mill’ Closures:Does Distance Matter?

When small towns experience a major infrastructure shock, such as a ‘mill’ closure, the effects can be devastating. We analyse the effects of two major freezing works closures in New Zealand, in Patea (1982) and Whakatu (1986). These two examples provide an interesting comparison: Whakatu is located close to a city, while Patea is relatively isolated. We describe the impacts of these shocks on population, employment and house values in each town, relative to two sets of comparators. These descriptions allow us to contrast long-run trends and adjustment dynamics resulting from the differing locations of both towns. We find that both towns experience negative population and employment impacts; however, consistent with benefits of a near-city location, the effects on Whakatu are mainly temporary, whereas the effects on Patea are more permanent. Population age-groups respond very differently to the shocks, in ways that are consistent with homeownership being a factor stifling migration responsiveness in the face of a shock. The results have implications for regional development policy choices with respect to infrastructure location and also for programmes designed to stimulate homeownership.Mill closures; rural infrastructure; homeownership

What’s the Beef with House Prices? Economic Shocks and Local Housing Markets

We examine the impact of shocks on community outcomes. The shocks that we examine are exogenous economic shocks which occur externally to the local community, and which are hypothesised to impact on the community. By testing the impact of these shocks on community developments, we enrich understanding of what causes communities to develop as they do over time. In particular, we gain a greater understanding of the impact of factors largely or wholly outside the control of local communities which lead to inequality in outcomes between communities. To focus our analysis, we concentrate on the price of houses within each community as the community outcome variable. The local price of houses summarises, in one dimension, a host of tangible and intangible components relating to the community of interest. We use a multivariate panel structure to estimate the long-run and short-run impacts of price, production and demographic variables on real house prices.House prices, commodity prices, regional shocks, adjustment dynamics