On the Consequences of the Detection of an Interstellar Asteroid

The arrival of the robustly hyperbolic asteroid A/2017 U1 has potentially interesting ramifications for the planet-formation process. Although extrapolations from a sample size of one are necessarily uncertain, order-of-magnitude estimates suggest that the Galaxy contains a substantial mass in similar bodies. We argue that despite its lack of Coma, A/2017 U1 likely contained a significant mass fraction of volatile components, and we argue that its presence can be used to infer a potentially large population of as-yet undetected Neptune-like extrasolar planets.Comment: Submitted to Research Notes of the AA

Jupiter's Decisive Role in the Inner Solar System's Early Evolution

The statistics of extrasolar planetary systems indicate that the default mode of planet formation generates planets with orbital periods shorter than 100 days, and masses substantially exceeding that of the Earth. When viewed in this context, the Solar System is unusual. Here, we present simulations which show that a popular formation scenario for Jupiter and Saturn, in which Jupiter migrates inward from a > 5 AU to a ~ 1.5 AU before reversing direction, can explain the low overall mass of the Solar System's terrestrial planets, as well as the absence of planets with a < 0.4 AU. Jupiter's inward migration entrained s ~ 10-100 km planetesimals into low-order mean-motion resonances, shepherding and exciting their orbits. The resulting collisional cascade generated a planetesimal disk that, evolving under gas drag, would have driven any pre-existing short-period planets into the Sun. In this scenario, the Solar System's terrestrial planets formed from gas-starved mass-depleted debris that remained after the primary period of dynamical evolution.Comment: Main text: 5 pages, 3 figures; Supplementary Information: 5 pages, 3 figures; accepted to PNA

Short-Term Dynamical Interactions Among Extrasolar Planets

We show that short-term perturbations among massive planets in multiple planet systems can result in radial velocity variations of the central star which differ substantially from velocity variations derived assuming the planets are executing independent Keplerian motions. We discuss two alternate fitting methods which can lead to an improved dynamical description of multiple planet systems. In the first method, the osculating orbital elements are determined via a Levenberg-Marquardt minimization scheme driving an N-body integrator. The second method is an improved analytic model in which orbital elements are allowed to vary according to a simple model for resonant interactions between the planets. Both of these methods can determine the true masses for the planets by eliminating the sin(i) degeneracy inherent in fits that assume independent Keplerian motions. We apply our fitting methods to the GJ876 radial velocity data (Marcy et al. 2001), and argue that the mass factors for the two planets are likely in the 1.25-2.0 rangeComment: 13 pages, including 4 figures and 3 tables Accepted by Astrophyiscal Journal Letter

A Scientometric Prediction of the Discovery of the First Potentially Habitable Planet with a Mass Similar to Earth

The search for a habitable extrasolar planet has long interested scientists, but only recently have the tools become available to search for such planets. In the past decades, the number of known extrasolar planets has ballooned into the hundreds, and with it the expectation that the discovery of the first Earth-like extrasolar planet is not far off. Here we develop a novel metric of habitability for discovered planets, and use this to arrive at a prediction for when the first habitable planet will be discovered. Using a bootstrap analysis of currently discovered exoplanets, we predict the discovery of the first Earth-like planet to be announced in the first half of 2011, with the likeliest date being early May 2011. Our predictions, using only the properties of previously discovered exoplanets, accord well with external estimates for the discovery of the first potentially habitable extrasolar planet, and highlights the the usefulness of predictive scientometric techniques to understand the pace of scientific discovery in many fields.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication in PLoS ON