HAS THE WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION PROMOTED SUCCESSFUL REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS?

This study uses econometric gravity equations to test whether the WTO has promoted successful regional trade agreements (RTA). Two important findings emerge. First, we find that two countries that are members of the GATT/WTO and enter into a regional trade agreement stimulate trade. However, the effect on trade is not nearly as large as that between two RTA members that belong to the GATT/WTO. Contrary to the findings in Rose (2004), this result tends to support the fact that the GATT/WTO has liberalized multilateral trade, outside of RTAs. In other words, the effect of an RTA on countries’ trade who are not party to the GATT/WTO should generate a large RTA trade response due to relatively large pre-existing trade distortions. Second, we show that the GATT/WTO has not promoted successful RTAs using explicit RTA variables that controls for the notification status (to the GATT/WTO) of an RTA. Interestingly, non-notified RTAs trade significantly more than their notified counterparts.International Relations/Trade,

Long-run Fiscal Projections under Uncertainty: The Case of New Zealand

This paper introduces uncertainty into a fiscal projection model which incorporates population ageing along with a number of feedback effects. When fiscal policy responds in order to achieve a target debt ratio, feedback effects modify the intended outcomes. The feedbacks include the effect on labour supply in response to changes in tax rates, changes in the country risk premium in response to higher public debt ratios, endogenous changes in the rate of productivity growth and savings. Stochastic projections of a range of policy responses are produced, allowing for uncertainty regarding the world interest rate, productivity growth and the growth rates of two components of per capita government expenditure. The probability of exceeding a given debt ratio in each projection year, using a particular tax or expenditure policy,can then be evaluated. Policy implications are briefly discussed