Frailty increases the long-term risk for fall and fracture-related hospitalizations and all-cause mortality in community-dwelling older women

Frailty is associated with declines in physiological capacity across sensory, neurological, and musculoskeletal systems. An underlying assumption is that the frailer an individual, the more likely they are to experience falls and fractures. We examined whether grades of frailty can assess the long-term risk of hospitalized falls, fractures, and all-cause mortality in 1261 community-dwelling older women (mean age [SD] of 75.1 [2.7] yr) over 14.5 yr. Frailty was operationalized using a frailty index (FI) of cumulative deficits from 33 variables across multiple health domains (physical, mental, comorbidities) at baseline. The total score across these variables was summed and divided by 33 to obtain the FI. Participants were graded as fit (FI ≤ 0.12), mildly frail (FI \u3e 0.12-0.24), moderately frail (FI \u3e 0.24-0.36), or severely frail (FI \u3e 0.36). Fall-related (n = 498), any fracture-related (n = 347), and hip fracture-related hospitalizations (n = 137) and deaths (n = 482) were obtained from linked health records. Associations between FI grades and clinical outcomes were analyzed using multivariable-adjusted Cox-proportional hazard models including age, treatment (calcium/placebo), BMI, smoking history, socioeconomic status, plasma vitamin D (25OHD) status plus season obtained, physical activity, self-reported prevalent falls in the last 3 mo, and self-reported fractures since the age of 50 yr. At baseline, 713 (56.5%), 350 (27.8%), 163 (12.9%), and 35 (2.8%) of women were classified as fit, mildly frail, moderately frail, and severely frail, respectively. Women with mild, moderate, and severe frailty had significantly higher hazards (all P \u3c .05) for a fall-related (46%, 104%, 168%), any fracture-related (88% for moderate, 193% for severe frailty), hip fracture-related hospitalizations (93%, 127%, 129%), and all-cause mortality (47%, 126%, 242%). The FI identified community-dwelling older women at risk for the most serious falls and fractures and may be incorporated into risk assessment tools to identify individuals with poorer clinical prognosis

Association of abdominal aortic calcification with peripheral quantitative computed tomography bone measures in older women: The Perth longitudinal study of ageing women

We have previously shown that abdominal aortic calcification (AAC), a marker of advanced atherosclerotic disease, is weakly associated with reduced hip areal bone mineral density (aBMD). To better understand the vascular–bone health relationship, we explored this association with other key determinants of whole-bone strength and fracture risk at peripheral skeletal sites. This study examined associations of AAC with peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT)-assessed total, cortical and trabecular volumetric BMD (vBMD), bone structure and strength of the radius and tibia among 648 community-dwelling older women (mean ± SD age 79.7 ± 2.5 years). We assessed associations between cross-sectional (2003) and longitudinal (progression from 1998/1999–2003) AAC assessed on lateral dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images with cross-sectional (2003) and longitudinal (change from 2003 to 2005) pQCT bone measures at the 4% radius and tibia, and 15% radius. Partial Spearman correlations (adjusted for age, BMI, calcium treatment) revealed no cross-sectional associations between AAC and any pQCT bone measures. AAC progression was not associated with any bone measure after adjusting for multiple comparisons, despite trends for inverse correlations with total bone area at the 4% radius (rs = − 0.088, p = 0.044), 4% tibia (rs = − 0.085, p = 0.052) and 15% radius (rs = − 0.101, p = 0.059). Neither AAC in 2003 nor AAC progression were associated with subsequent 2-year pQCT bone changes. ANCOVA showed no differences in bone measures between women with and without AAC or AAC progression, nor across categories of AAC extent. Collectively, these finding suggest that peripheral bone density and structure, or its changes with age, are not associated with central vascular calcification in older women

Apolipoprotein ɛ4 is associated with increased risk of fall- and fracture-related hospitalisation: the Perth Longitudinal Study of Ageing Women

Apolipoprotein ɛ4 (APOE ɛ4) may be a genetic risk factor for reduced bone mineral density (BMD) and muscle function, which could have implications for fall and fracture risk. We examined the association between APOE ɛ4 status and long-term fall- and fracture-related hospitalisation risk in older women. 1276 community-dwelling women from the Perth Longitudinal Study of Ageing Women (mean age ± SD = 75.2 ± 2.7 years) were included. At baseline, women underwent APOE genotyping and detailed phenotyping for covariates including prevalent falls and fractures, as well as health and lifestyle factors. The association between APOE ɛ4 with fall-, any fracture-, and hip fracture-related hospitalisations, obtained over 14.5 years from linked health records, were examined using multivariable-adjusted Cox-proportional hazard models. Over 14.5 years, 507 (39.7%) women experienced a fall-related hospitalisation, 360 (28.2%) women experienced a fracture-related hospitalisation, including 143 (11.2%) attributed to a hip fracture. In multivariable-adjusted models, compared to non-carriers, APOE ɛ4 carriers (n=297, 23.3%) had greater risk for a fall- (HR 1.48 95%CI 1.22-1.81), fracture- (HR 1.28, 95%CI 1.01-1.63) or hip fracture-related hospitalisation (HR 1.83 95%CI 1.29-2.61). The estimates remained similar when specific fall and fracture risk factors (fear of falling, plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D, grip strength, timed-up-and-go, hip BMD, vitamin K status, prevalent diabetes, HbA1c, cholesterol, abbreviated mental test score) were added to the multivariable model. In conclusion, APOE ɛ4 is a potential risk factor for fall- and fracture-related hospitalisation in community-dwelling older women. Screening for APOE ɛ4 could provide clinicians an opportunity to direct higher risk individuals to appropriate intervention strategies

Provision of non-invasive coronary and carotid vascular imaging results on changes in diet and physical activity in asymptomatic adults: A scoping review

Background: Although a healthy diet and physical activity have been shown to prevent or delay cardiovascular disease (CVD) hospitalizations and deaths, most adults do not meet current guidelines. Provision of coronary artery calcification (CAC) and carotid ultrasound (CUS) imaging results may motivate beneficial lifestyle changes. We scoped the existing literature for studies providing non-invasive vascular imaging results and reporting diet, physical activity, and/or anthropometric measures to identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for further research. Methods: A systematic search was performed across three electronic databases, in line with PRISMA ScR guidelines and Arksey and O\u27Malley\u27s scoping review framework. Results: Twenty studies (thirteen observational and seven randomized controlled trials) examining the impact of provision of CAC/CUS imaging results on diet and/or physical activity behaviors were included. Nearly half the studies did not clearly state whether participants received dietary and physical activity advice along with vascular imaging results, and these were secondary outcomes in most studies, with data assessment and reporting being inconsistent. Conclusion: Well-designed clinical trials with consistent and clear messaging based on detailed subjective and objective measures of diet and physical activity are needed to determine whether this approach may stimulate long-term dietary and physical activity change

Automated abdominal aortic calcification scoring from vertebral fracture assessment images and fall-associated hospitalisations: The Manitoba Bone Mineral Density Registry

Abdominal aortic calcification (AAC), a subclinical measure of cardiovascular disease (CVD) that can be assessed on vertebral fracture assessment (VFA) images during osteoporosis screening, is reported to be a falls risk factor. A limitation to incorporating AAC clinically is that its scoring requires trained experts and is time-consuming. We examined if our machine learning (ML) algorithm for AAC (ML-AAC24) is associated with a higher fall-associated hospitalisation risk in the Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Registry. A total of 8565 individuals (94.0% female, age 75.7 ± 6.8 years) who had a BMD and VFA image from DXA between February 2010 and December 2017 were included. ML-AAC24 was categorised based on established categories (ML-AAC24 = low \u3c 2; moderate 2 to \u3c 6; high ≥ 6). Cox proportional hazards models assessed the relationship between ML-AAC24 categories and incident fall-associated hospitalisations obtained from linked health records (mean ± SD follow-up, 3.9 ± 2.2 years). Individuals with moderate (9.6%) and high ML-AAC24 (11.7%) had a greater proportion of fall-associated hospitalisations, compared to those with low ML-AAC24 (6.0%). In age and sex-adjusted models, compared to low ML-AAC24, moderate (HR 1.49, 95% CI 1.24–1.79) and high ML-AAC24 (HR 1.89, 95% CI 1.56–2.28) were associated with greater hazards for a fall-associated hospitalisation. Results were comparable (HR 1.37, 95% CI 1.13–1.65 and HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.31–1.95, respectively) after multivariable adjustment, including prior falls and CVD, as well as medication use. Integrating ML-AAC24 into bone density machine software to identify high risk individuals would opportunistically provide important information on fall and cardiovascular disease risk to clinicians for evaluation and intervention

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk outcome associations. Methods: We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings: In 2017,34.1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33.3-35.0) deaths and 121 billion (144-1.28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61.0% (59.6-62.4) of deaths and 48.3% (46.3-50.2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10.4 million (9.39-11.5) deaths and 218 million (198-237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7.10 million [6.83-7.37] deaths and 182 million [173-193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6.53 million [5.23-8.23] deaths and 171 million [144-201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4.72 million [2.99-6.70] deaths and 148 million [98.6-202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1.43 million [1.36-1.51] deaths and 139 million [131-147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4.9% (3.3-6.5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23.5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18.6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Impact of provision of abdominal aortic calcification results on fruit and vegetable intake: 12-week randomized phase 2 controlled trial

Provision of non-invasive vascular imaging results to individuals has been shown to improve cardiovascular disease risk factor control: its impact on diet remains uncertain. In this two-arm, single-blind, parallel, 12-week randomized controlled trial, 240 participants, 57.5% females aged 60–80 y had abdominal aortic calcification and clinical assessments performed at a hospital clinic. Participants were randomized 1:1 to receive (intervention n = 121) or not (control n = 119) their calcification results. Both groups received educational resources on cardiovascular disease risk control and were unblinded to the intervention. Outcome measures were performed at baseline and 12 weeks. The primary outcomes of the study were changes in fruit and vegetable intake measures over 12 weeks assessed using plasma carotenoid concentrations (biomarkers of FV intake) and a food frequency questionnaire. Secondary outcomes included 12-week changes in other aspects of the diet, physical activity, body weight, blood pressure, heart rate, lipid profile, glucose concentrations, estimated cardiovascular disease risk score, and medication use. Between-group differences were tested using linear mixed-effects regression. There were no between-group differences in the primary outcomes at 12 weeks: plasma carotenoids (mean difference +0.03 µg/mL [95%CI −0.06, 0.13]) and fruit and vegetable intakes (+18 g/d [−37, 72]). However, the provision of calcification results led to between-group differences in serum total (−0.22 mmol/L [−0.41, −0.04]) and non-HDL (−0.19 mmol/L [−0.35, −0.03]) cholesterol, and estimated cardiovascular disease risk score (−0.24% [−0.47, −0.02]). No between-group differences were seen for other secondary outcomes. In this work, providing vascular imaging results did not improve diet but did improve some cardiovascular disease risk factors (Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12618001087246)

Global, regional, and national burden of epilepsy, 1990 - 2016 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

Background: Seizures and their consequences contribute to the burden of epilepsy because they can cause health loss (premature mortality and residual disability). Data on the burden of epilepsy are needed for health-care planning and resource allocation. The aim of this study was to quantify health loss due to epilepsy by age, sex, year, and location using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study. Methods: We assessed the burden of epilepsy in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Burden was measured as deaths, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; a summary measure of health loss defined by the sum of years of life lost [YLLs] for premature mortality and years lived with disability), by age, sex, year, location, and Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a compound measure of income per capita, education, and fertility). Vital registrations and verbal autopsies provided information about deaths, and data on the prevalence and severity of epilepsy largely came from population representative surveys. All estimates were calculated with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Interpretation: Despite the decrease in the disease burden from 1990 to 2016, epilepsy is still an important cause of disability and mortality. Standardised collection of data on epilepsy in population representative surveys will strengthen the estimates, particularly in countries for which we currently have no or sparse data and if additional data is collected on severity, causes, and treatment. Sizeable gains in reducing the burden of epilepsy might be expected from improved access to existing treatments in low-income countries and from the development of new effective drugs worldwide

Global trends of hand and wrist trauma: A systematic analysis of fracture and digit amputation using the Global Burden of Disease 2017 Study

Background: As global rates of mortality decrease, rates of non-fatal injury have increased, particularly in low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) nations. We hypothesised this global pattern of non-fatal injury would be demonstrated in regard to bony hand and wrist trauma over the 27-year study period. Methods: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 was used to estimate prevalence, age-standardised incidence and years lived with disability for hand trauma in 195 countries from 1990 to 2017. Individual injuries included hand and wrist fractures, thumb amputations and non-thumb digit amputations. Results: The global incidence of hand trauma has only modestly decreased since 1990. In 2017, t

Prevalence and attributable health burden of chronic respiratory diseases, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Previous attempts to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases have focused only on specific disease conditions, such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) or asthma. In this study, we aimed to characterise the burden of chronic respiratory diseases globally, providing a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis on geographical and time trends from 1990 to 2017. Methods Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, we estimated the prevalence, morbidity, and mortality attributable to chronic respiratory diseases through an analysis of deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and years of life lost (YLL) by GBD super-region, from 1990 to 2017, stratified by age and sex. Specific diseases analysed included asthma, COPD, interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis, pneumoconiosis, and other chronic respiratory diseases. We also assessed the contribution of risk factors (smoking, second-hand smoke, ambient particulate matter and ozone pollution, household air pollution from solid fuels, and occupational risks) to chronic respiratory disease-attributable DALYs. Findings In 2017, 544.9 million people (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 506.9- 584.8) worldwide had a chronic respiratory disease, representing an increase of 39.8% compared with 1990. Chronic respiratory disease prevalence showed wide variability across GBD super-regions, with the highest prevalence among both males and females in high-income regions, and the lowest prevalence in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. The age-sex- specific prevalence of each chronic respiratory disease in 2017 was also highly variable geographically. Chronic respiratory diseases were the third leading cause of death in 2017 (7.0% [95% UI 6.8-7 .2] of all deaths), behind cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Deaths due to chronic respiratory diseases numbered 3 914 196 (95% UI 3 790 578-4 044 819) in 2017, an increase of 18.0% since 1990, while total DALYs increased by 13.3%. However, when accounting for ageing and population growth, declines were observed in age-standardised prevalence (14.3% decrease), agestandardised death rates (42.6%), and age-standardised DALY rates (38.2%). In males and females, most chronic respiratory disease-attributable deaths and DALYs were due to COPD. In regional analyses, mortality rates from chronic respiratory diseases were greatest in south Asia and lowest in sub-Saharan Africa, also across both sexes. Notably, although absolute prevalence was lower in south Asia than in most other super-regions, YLLs due to chronic respiratory diseases across the subcontinent were the highest in the world. Death rates due to interstitial lung disease and pulmonary sarcoidosis were greater than those due to pneumoconiosis in all super-regions. Smoking was the leading risk factor for chronic respiratory disease-related disability across all regions for men. Among women, household air pollution from solid fuels was the predominant risk factor for chronic respiratory diseases in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, while ambient particulate matter represented the leading risk factor in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania, and in the Middle East and north Africa super-region. Interpretation Our study shows that chronic respiratory diseases remain a leading cause of death and disability worldwide, with growth in absolute numbers but sharp declines in several age-standardised estimators since 1990. Premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases seems to be highest in regions with less-resourced health systems on a per-capita basis