On model selection criteria for climate change impact studies

Climate change impact studies inform policymakers on the estimated damages of future climate change on economic, health and other outcomes. In most studies, an annual outcome variable is observed, e.g. annual mortality rate, along with higher-frequency regressors, e.g. daily temperature and precipitation. Practitioners use summaries of the higher-frequency regressors in fixed effects panel models. The choice over summary statistics amounts to model selection. Some practitioners use Monte Carlo cross-validation (MCCV) to justify a particular specification. However, conventional implementation of MCCV with fixed testing-to-full sample ratios tends to select over-fit models. This paper presents conditions under which MCCV, and also information criteria, can deliver consistent model selection. Previous work has established that the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can be inconsistent for non-nested selection. We illustrate that the BIC can also be inconsistent in our framework, when all candidate models are misspecified. Our results have practical implications for empirical conventions in climate change impact studies. Specifically, they highlight the importance of a priori information provided by the scientific literature to guide the models considered for selection. We emphasize caution in interpreting model selection results in settings where the scientific literature does not specify the relationship between the outcome and the weather variables.Comment: Additional simulation results available from authors by reques

Measurement of the Positive Muon Lifetime and Determination of the Fermi Constant to Part-per-Million Precision

We report a measurement of the positive muon lifetime to a precision of 1.0 parts per million (ppm); it is the most precise particle lifetime ever measured. The experiment used a time-structured, low-energy muon beam and a segmented plastic scintillator array to record more than 2 x 10^{12} decays. Two different stopping target configurations were employed in independent data-taking periods. The combined results give tau_{mu^+}(MuLan) = 2196980.3(2.2) ps, more than 15 times as precise as any previous experiment. The muon lifetime gives the most precise value for the Fermi constant: G_F(MuLan) = 1.1663788 (7) x 10^-5 GeV^-2 (0.6 ppm). It is also used to extract the mu^-p singlet capture rate, which determines the proton's weak induced pseudoscalar coupling g_P.Comment: Accepted for publication in Phys. Rev. Let

Improved Measurement of the Positive Muon Lifetime and Determination of the Fermi Constant

The mean life of the positive muon has been measured to a precision of 11 ppm using a low-energy, pulsed muon beam stopped in a ferromagnetic target, which was surrounded by a scintillator detector array. The result, tau_mu = 2.197013(24) us, is in excellent agreement with the previous world average. The new world average tau_mu = 2.197019(21) us determines the Fermi constant G_F = 1.166371(6) x 10^-5 GeV^-2 (5 ppm). Additionally, the precision measurement of the positive muon lifetime is needed to determine the nucleon pseudoscalar coupling g_P.Comment: As published version (PRL, July 2007

Baikal-GVD: status and prospects

Baikal-GVD is a next generation, kilometer-scale neutrino telescope under construction in Lake Baikal. It is designed to detect astrophysical neutrino fluxes at energies from a few TeV up to 100 PeV. GVD is formed by multi-megaton subarrays (clusters). The array construction started in 2015 by deployment of a reduced-size demonstration cluster named "Dubna". The first cluster in its baseline configuration was deployed in 2016, the second in 2017 and the third in 2018. The full scale GVD will be an array of ~10000 light sensors with an instrumented volume of about 2 cubic km. The first phase (GVD-1) is planned to be completed by 2020-2021. It will comprise 8 clusters with 2304 light sensors in total. We describe the design of Baikal-GVD and present selected results obtained in 2015-2017.Comment: 9 pages, 8 figures. Conference proceedings for QUARKS201

Dark matter constraints from an observation of dSphs and the LMC with the Baikal NT200

In present analysis we complete search for a dark matter signal with the Baikal neutrino telescope NT200 from potential sources in the sky. We use five years of data and look for neutrinos from dark matter annihilations in the dwarfs spheroidal galaxies in the Southern hemisphere and the Large Magellanic Cloud known as the largest and close satellite galaxy of the Milky Way. We do not find any excess in observed data over expected background from the atmospheric neutrinos towards the LMC or any of tested 22 dwarfs. We perform a joint likelihood analysis on the sample of five selected dwarfs and found a concordance of the data with null hypothesis of the background-only observation. We derive 90% CL upper limits on the cross section of annihilating dark matter particles of mass between 30 GeV and 10 TeV into several channels both in our combined analysis of the dwarfs and in a particular analysis towards the LMC.Comment: 15 pages, 11 figure