Reply to: Is presymptomatic spread a major contributor to COVID-19 transmission?

Reply to: Is presymptomatic spread a major contributor to COVID-19 transmission

School Closure to Reduce Influenza Transmission : In response

School Closure to Reduce Influenza Transmission : In respons

School Closure to Reduce Influenza Transmission : In response

School Closure to Reduce Influenza Transmission : In respons

Optimizing use of multistream influenza sentinel surveillance data

We applied time-series methods to multivariate sentinel surveillance data recorded in Hong Kong during 1998-2007. Our study demonstrates that simultaneous monitoring of multiple streams of influenza surveillance data can improve the accuracy and timeliness of alerts compared with monitoring of aggregate data or of any single stream alone

Estimating the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BF.7 in Beijing after adjustment of the zero-COVID policy in November–December 2022

We tracked the effective reproduction number (Rt) of the predominant severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant Omicron BF.7 in Beijing in November–December 2022 by fitting a transmission dynamic model parameterized with real-time mobility data to (i) the daily number of new symptomatic cases on 1–11 November (when China’s zero-COVID interventions were still strictly enforced) and (ii) the proportion of individuals who participated in online polls on 10–22 December and self-reported to have been test-positive since 1 November. After China’s announcement of 20 measures to transition from zero-COVID, we estimated that Rt increased to 3.44 (95% credible interval (CrI): 2.82–4.14) on 18 November and the infection incidence peaked on 11 December. We estimated that the cumulative infection attack rate (IAR; that is, proportion of the population infected since 1 November) in Beijing was 75.7% (95% CrI: 60.7–84.4) on 22 December 2022 and 92.3% (95% CrI: 91.4–93.1) on 31 January 2023. Surveillance programs should be rapidly set up to monitor the evolving epidemiology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 across China

Mitigation of Influenza B Epidemic with School Closures, Hong Kong, 2018

Mitigation of Influenza B Epidemic with School Closures, Hong Kong, 201

Single and combined anti-COVID-19 drugs among hospitalised patients: abridged secondary publication

Single and combined anti-COVID-19 drugs among hospitalised patients: abridged secondary publicatio

Transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities: Retrospective cohort study

Objectives To estimate the transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities and to identify associated risk factors

Transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities: Retrospective cohort study

Transmissibility of the Ice Bucket Challenge among globally influential celebrities: Retrospective cohort stud

The transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in a recently developed chinese city

Background: Hong Kong is an affluent subtropical city with a well-developed healthcare infrastructure but an intermediate TB burden. Declines in notification rates through the 1960s and 1970s have slowed since the 1980s to the current level of around 82 cases per 100 000 population. We studied the transmission dynamics of TB in Hong Kong to explore the factors underlying recent trends in incidence. Methodology/Principal Findings: We fitted an age-structured compartmental model to TB notifications in Hong Kong between 1968 and 2008. We used the model to quantify the proportion of annual cases due to recent transmission versus endogenous reactivation of latent infection, and to project trends in incidence rates to 2018. The proportion of annual TB notifications attributed to endogenous reactivation increased from 46% to 70% between 1968 and 2008. Age-standardized notification rates were projected to decline to approximately 56 per 100 000 in 2018. Conclusions/Significance: Continued intermediate incidence of TB in Hong Kong is driven primarily by endogenous reactivation of latent infections. Public health interventions which focus on reducing transmission may not lead to substantial reductions in disease burden associated with endogenous reactivation of latent infections in the short- to medium-term. While reductions in transmission with socio-economic development and public health interventions will lead to declines in TB incidence in these regions, a high prevalence of latent infections may hinder substantial declines in burden in the longer term. These findings may therefore have important implications for the burden of TB in developing regions with higher levels of transmission currently. © 2010 Wu et al