Human influence strengthens the contrast between tropical wet and dry regions

Climate models predict a strengthening contrast between wet and dry regions in the tropics and subtropics (30 °S–30 °N), and data from the latest model intercomparison project (CMIP6) support this expectation. Rainfall in ascending regions increases, and in descending regions decreases in climate models, reanalyses, and observational data. This strengthening contrast can be captured by tracking the rainfall change each month in the wettest and driest third of the tropics and subtropics combined. Since wet and dry regions are selected individually every month for each model ensemble member, and the observations, this analysis is largely unaffected by biases in location of precipitation features. Blended satellite and in situ data from 1988–2019 support the CMIP6-model-simulated tendency of sharpening contrasts between wet and dry regions, with rainfall in wet regions increasing substantially opposed by a slight decrease in dry regions. We detect the effect of external forcings on tropical and subtropical observed precipitation in wet and dry regions combined, and attribute this change for the first time to anthropogenic and natural forcings separately. Our results show that most of the observed change has been caused by increasing greenhouse gases. Natural forcings also contribute, following the drop in wet-region precipitation after the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo, while anthropogenic aerosol effects show only weak trends in tropic-wide wet and dry regions consistent with flat global aerosol forcing over the analysis period. The observed response to external forcing is significantly larger ( p > 0.95) than the multi-model mean simulated response. As expected from climate models, the observed signal strengthens further when focusing on the wet tail of spatial distributions in both models and data

Global Progress Toward Implementing the United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement

This brief examines the progress made in implementing the Fish Stocks Agreement, based on a review of the status of certain highly migratory stocks and the effectiveness of regional fishery management organization (RFMO) measures in meeting specific mandates. It also looks at whether recommendations made in prior reviews have been implemented

Increased Amazon basin wet-season precipitation and river discharge since the early 1990s driven by tropical Pacific variability

International audienceThe Amazon Basin, the largest watershed on Earth, experienced a significant increase in wet-season precipitation and high-season river discharge from the early 1990s to early 2010s. Some studies have linked the increased Amazon Basin hydrologic cycle to decadal trends of increased Pacific trade winds, eastern Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) cooling, and associated strengthening of the Pacific Walker circulation. However, it has been difficult to disentangle the role of Pacific decadal variability from the impacts of greenhouse gases and other external climate drivers over the same period. Here, we separate the contributions of external forcings from those of Pacific decadal variability by comparing two large ensembles of climate model experiments with identical radiative forcing agents but imposing different tropical Pacific wind stress. One ensemble constrains tropical Pacific wind stress to its long-term climatology, suppressing tropical Pacific decadal variability; the other ensemble imposes the observed tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies, simulating realistic tropical Pacific decadal variability. Comparing the Amazon Basin hydroclimate response in the two ensembles allows us to distinguish the contributions of external forcings common to both simulations from those related to Pacific trade wind variability. For the 1992–2012 trend, the experiments with observed tropical Pacific wind stress anomalies simulate strengthening of the Walker circulation between the Pacific and South America and sharpening of the Pacific–Atlantic interbasin SST contrast, driving increased Amazon Basin wet-season precipitation and high-season discharge. In contrast, these circulation and hydrologic intensification trends are absent in the simulations with climatological tropical Pacific wind stress. This work underscores the importance of Pacific decadal variability in driving hydrological cycle changes and modulating the hydroclimate impacts of global warming over the Amazon Basin

Forced and unforced decadal behavior of the interhemispheric SST contrast during the instrumental period (1881–2012):contextualizing the abrupt shift around 1970

The sea surface temperature (SST) contrast between the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) influences the location of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the intensity of the monsoon systems. This study examines the contributions of external forcing and unforced internal variability to the interhemispheric SST contrast in HadSST3 and ERSSTv5 observations, and 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) from 1881 to 2012. Using multimodel mean fingerprints, a significant influence of anthropogenic, but not natural, forcing is detected in the interhemispheric SST contrast, with the observed response larger than that of the model mean in ERSSTv5. The forced response consists of asymmetric NH–SH SST cooling from the mid-twentieth century to around 1980, followed by opposite NH–SH SST warming. The remaining best-estimate residual or unforced component is marked by NH–SH SST maxima in the 1930s and mid-1960s, and a rapid NH–SH SST decrease around 1970. Examination of decadal shifts in the observed interhemispheric SST contrast highlights the shift around 1970 as the most prominent from 1881 to 2012. Both NH and SH SST variability contributed to the shift, which appears not to be attributable to external forcings. Most models examined fail to capture such large-magnitude shifts in their control simulations, although some models with high interhemispheric SST variability are able to produce them. Large-magnitude shifts produced by the control simulations feature disparate spatial SST patterns, some of which are consistent with changes typically associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)

Causes of climate change over the historical record

This review addresses the causes of observed climate variations across the industrial period, from 1750 to present. It focuses on long-term changes, both in response to external forcing and to climate variability in the ocean and atmosphere. A synthesis of results from attribution studies based on palaeoclimatic reconstructions covering the recent few centuries to the 20th century, and instrumental data shows how greenhouse gases began to cause warming since the beginning of industrialization, causing trends that are attributable to greenhouse gases by 1900 in proxy-based temperature reconstructions. Their influence increased over time, dominating recent trends. However, other forcings have caused substantial deviations from this emerging greenhouse warming trend: volcanic eruptions have caused strong cooling following a period of unusually heavy activity, such as in the early 19th century; or warming during periods of low activity, such as in the early-to-mid 20th century. Anthropogenic aerosol forcing most likely masked some global greenhouse warming over the 20th century, especially since the accelerated increase in sulphate aerosol emissions starting around 1950. Based on modelling and attribution studies, aerosol forcing has also influenced regional temperatures, caused long-term changes in monsoons and imprinted on Atlantic variability. Multi-decadal variations in atmospheric modes can also cause long-term climate variability, as apparent for the example of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and have influenced Atlantic ocean variability. Long-term precipitation changes are more difficult to attribute to external forcing due to spatial sparseness of data and noisiness of precipitation changes, but the observed pattern of precipitation response to warming from station data supports climate model simulated changes and with it, predictions. The long-term warming has also led to significant differences in daily variability as, for example, visible in long European station data. Extreme events over the historical record provide valuable samples of possible extreme events and their mechanisms

Whole-cortex mapping of common genetic influences on depression and a social deficits dimension

Social processes are associated with depression, particularly understanding and responding to others, deficits in which can manifest as callousness/unemotionality (CU). Thus, CU may reflect some of the genetic risk to depression. Further, this vulnerability likely reflects the neurological substrates of depression, presenting biomarkers to capture genetic vulnerability of depression severity. However, heritability varies within brain regions, so a high-resolution genetic perspective is needed. We developed a toolbox that maps genetic and environmental associations between brain and behavior at high resolution. We used this toolbox to estimate brain areas that are genetically associated with both depressive symptoms and CU in a sample of 258 same-sex twin pairs from the Colorado Longitudinal Twin Study (LTS). We then overlapped the two maps to generate coordinates that allow for tests of downstream effects of genes influencing our clusters. Genetic variance influencing cortical thickness in the right dorsal lateral prefrontal cortex (DLFPC) sulci and gyri, ventral posterior cingulate cortex (PCC), pre-somatic motor cortex (PreSMA), medial precuneus, left occipital-temporal junction (OTJ), parietal-temporal junction (PTJ), ventral somatosensory cortex (vSMA), and medial and lateral precuneus were genetically associated with both depression and CU. Split-half replication found support for both DLPFC clusters. Meta-analytic term search identified "theory of mind", "inhibit", and "pain" as likely functions. Gene and transcript mapping/enrichment analyses implicated calcium channels. CU reflects genetic vulnerability to depression that likely involves executive and social functioning in a distributed process across the cortex. This approach works to unify neuroimaging, neuroinformatics, and genetics to discover pathways to psychiatric vulnerability.</p

The effects of test-enhanced learning on long-term retention in AAN annual meeting courses.

OBJECTIVE: We measured the long-term retention of knowledge gained through selected American Academy of Neurology annual meeting courses and compared the effects of repeated quizzing (known as test-enhanced learning) and repeated studying on that retention. METHODS: Participants were recruited from 4 annual meeting courses. All participants took a pretest. This randomized, controlled trial utilized a within-subjects design in which each participant experienced 3 different postcourse activities with each activity performed on different material. Each key information point from the course was randomized in a counterbalanced fashion among participants to one of the 3 activities: repeated short-answer quizzing, repeated studying, and no further exposure to the materials. A final test covering all information points from the course was taken 5.5 months after the course. RESULTS: Thirty-five participants across the 4 courses completed the study. Average score on the pretest was 36%. Performance on the final test showed that repeated quizzing led to significantly greater long-term retention relative to both repeated studying (55% vs 46%; t[34] = 3.28, SEM = 0.03, p = 0.01, d = 0.49) and no further exposure (55% vs 44%; t[34] = 3.16, SEM = 0.03, p = 0.01, d = 0.58). Relative to the pretest baseline, repeated quizzing helped participants to retain almost twice as much of the knowledge acquired from the course compared to repeated studying or no further exposure. CONCLUSIONS: Whereas annual meeting continuing medical education (CME) courses lead to long-term gains in knowledge, when repeated quizzing is added, retention is significantly increased. CME planners may consider adding repeated quizzing to increase the impact of their courses

Black Hole Condensation and the Unification of String Vacua

It is argued that black hole condensation can occur at conifold singularities in the moduli space of type II Calabi--Yau string vacua. The condensate signals a smooth transition to a new Calabi--Yau space with different Euler characteristic and Hodge numbers. In this manner string theory unifies the moduli spaces of many or possibly all Calabi--Yau vacua. Elementary string states and black holes are smoothly interchanged under the transitions, and therefore cannot be invariantly distinguished. Furthermore, the transitions establish the existence of mirror symmetry for many or possibly all Calabi--Yau manifolds.Comment: 15 pages, harvma

The tip-link antigen, a protein associated with the transduction complex of sensory hair cells, is protocadherin-15

Sound and acceleration are detected by hair bundles, mechanosensory structures located at the apical pole of hair cells in the inner ear. The different elements of the hair bundle, the stereocilia and a kinocilium, are interconnected by a variety of link types. One of these links, the tip link, connects the top of a shorter stereocilium with the lateral membrane of an adjacent taller stereocilium and may gate the mechanotransducer channel of the hair cell. Mass spectrometric and Western blot analyses identify the tip-link antigen, a hitherto unidentified antigen specifically associated with the tip and kinocilial links of sensory hair bundles in the inner ear and the ciliary calyx of photoreceptors in the eye, as an avian ortholog of human protocadherin-15, a product of the gene for the deaf/blindness Usher syndrome type 1F/DFNB23 locus. Multiple protocadherin-15 transcripts are shown to be expressed in the mouse inner ear, and these define four major isoform classes, two with entirely novel, previously unidentified cytoplasmic domains. Antibodies to the three cytoplasmic domain-containing isoform classes reveal that each has a different spatiotemporal expression pattern in the developing and mature inner ear. Two isoforms are distributed in a manner compatible for association with the tip-link complex. An isoform located at the tips of stereocilia is sensitive to calcium chelation and proteolysis with subtilisin and reappears at the tips of stereocilia as transduction recovers after the removal of calcium chelators. Protocadherin-15 is therefore associated with the tip-link complex and may be an integral component of this structure and/or required for its formatio