Recent Estimates of Time-Variation in the Conditional Variance and in the Exchange Risk Premium

The optimal-diversification model of investors' portfolio behavior can give a linear relationship between the exchange risk premium and the conditional exchange rate variance. This note surveys recent empirical work that allows for the conditional variance itself, and therefore the risk premium, to vary over time. In particular, it examines the implications of recent empirical estimates for earlier arguments, based on the assumption that the conditional variance was constant over time, that the exchange risk premium had to be small in magnitude and variability.

The Desirability of a Dollar Appreciation, Given a Contractionary U.S. Monetary Policy

Undesirable real effects have been attributed to floating exchange rates in general, and the 1980-83 appreciation of the dollar in particular.In the appreciating country, the U.S., export industries lose competitiveness and so output falls. In the other country, say Europe, the exchange rate change worsens inflation.This paper starts from the premise that these undesirable side effects are attributable, not to the exchange rate, but rather to the decisionin the U.S. to switch to a more contractionary monetary policy in order to fight inflation. Given the U.S. contraction, it might be desirable for the dollar to appreciate in the sense that it allows each country to attain the best possible tradeoff between aggregate output and inflation.This conclusion follows from the assumption that in each of two sectors,nontraded goods or exportables, the relationship between output and inflationis concave. A U.S. contraction will then give the maximum reduction ininflation per lost output only if it is shared equally by both sectors.This means allowing the currency to appreciate; under a fixed exchange rate the burden of contraction would be borne disproportionately by the nontraded goods sector. The exchange rate change is also good for Europe. Given the U.S. contraction, the European export sectors would suffer a disproportionate loss in output if European currencies were not allowed to depreciate against the dollar.

A Lesson from the South for Fiscal Policy in the US and Other Advanced Countries

American fiscal policy has been procyclical: Washington wasted the expansion period 2001-2007 by running budget deficits, but by 2011 had come to feel constrained by inherited debt to withdraw fiscal stimulus. Chile has achieved countercyclical fiscal policy - saving in booms and easing in recession - during the same decade that rich countries forgot how to do so. Chile has a rule that targets a structural budget balance. But rules are not credible by themselves. In Europe and the U.S., official forecasts are overly optimistic in booms; so revenue is spent rather than saved. Chile avoids such wishful thinking by having independent panels of experts decide what is structural and what is cyclical.

Experience of and Lessons from Exchange Rate Regime in Emerging Economies

The paper reviews recent trends in thinking on exchange rate regimes. It begins by classifying countries into regimes, noting the distinction between de facto and de jure regimes, but also noting the low correlation among proposed ways of classifying the latter. The advantages of fixed exchange rates versus floating are reviewed, including the recent evidence on the trade-promoting effects of currency unions. Frameworks for tallying up the pros and cons include the traditional Optimum Currency Area criteria, as well as some new criteria from the experiences of the 1990s. The Corners Hypothesis may now be peaking' as rapidly as it rose, in light of its lack of foundations. Empirical evidence regarding the economic performance of different regimes depends entirely on the classification scheme. A listing of possible nominal anchors alongside exchange rates observes that each candidate has its own vulnerability, leading to the author's proposal to Peg the Export Price (PEP). The concluding section offers some implications for East Asia.

The Effect of Monetary Policy on Real Commodity Prices

Commodity prices are back. This paper looks at connections between monetary policy, and agricultural and mineral commodities. We begin with the monetary influences on commodity prices, first for a large country such as the United States, then smaller countries. The claim is that low real interest rates lead to high real commodity prices. The theory is an analogy with Dornbusch overshooting. The relationship between real interest rates and real commodity prices is also supported empirically. One channel through which this effect is accomplished is a negative effect of interest rates on the desire to carry commodity inventories. The paper concludes with a consideration of implications for monetary policy.

The Internationalization of Equity Markets

This introduction to a forthcoming NBER volume on 'The Internationalization of Equity Markets' argues that the existing finance literature has in some respects not kept pace with world trends. Most empirical studies fail to take due account of the diversity of assets offered by countries around the world, the diversity of locales in which investors live, and the diversity of institutional peculiarities that characterize the markets in which assets and investors are brought together. Four of the papers in the volume are econometric studies of asset pricing and home-country bias in internationally integrated equity markets. The other four examine such issues as emerging markets, country funds, trading volume, location, taxes, controls, and other imperfections in international markets.