Mapping feasibilities of Greenhouse Gas Removal: Key issues, gaps and opening up assessments

Greenhouse gas removal technologies and practices are essential to bring emissions to net zero and limit global warming to 1.5°C. To achieve this, the majority of integrated assessment models (IAMs), that generate future emissions scenarios and inform the international policy process, use large-scale afforestation and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS). The feasibility of these technologies and practices has only so far been considered from a relatively narrow techno-economic or biophysical perspective. Here, we present one of the first studies to elicit perspectives through an expert mapping process to open up and broaden the discussion around feasibility of afforestation and BECCS. Our stakeholders included business and industry, non-governmental organisations and policy makers, spanning expertise in bioenergy, forestry, CCS and climate change. Perspectives were elicited on 1) issues relating to BECCS with large-scale afforestation, and 2) specific criteria for assessing feasibility. Participants identified 12 main themes with 61 sub-themes around issues, and 11 main themes with 33 sub-themes around feasibility criteria. Our findings show important societal and governance aspects of feasibility that are currently under-represented, specifically issues around real-world complexity, competing human needs, justice and ethics. Unique to the use of these technologies for greenhouse gas removal are issues around temporal and spatial scale, and greenhouse gas accounting. Using these expert insights, we highlight where IAMs currently poorly capture these concerns. These broader, often more qualitative perspectives, issues and uncertainties must be recognised and accounted for, in order to understand the real-world feasibility of large-scale afforestation and BECCS and the role they play in limiting climate change. These considerations enable widening the scope to broader and deeper discussions about possible and desirable futures, beyond a focus on achieving net-zero emissions, attentive to the effects such decisions may have. We outline approaches that can be used to attend to the complex social and political dimensions that IAMs do not render. By complementing IAMs in this way opportunities can be created to open up considerations of future options and alternatives beyond those framings proposed by IAMs, creating opportunities for inclusion of knowledges, reflexivity and responsibility

Evidence of a common understanding of proximate and distal drivers of reef health

Marine management has typically prioritised natural science methodological traditions as an evidence base for decision-making; yet better integration of social science methods are increasingly shown to provide a more comprehensive picture to base management decisions. Specifically, perceptions-based assessments are gaining support, as they can provide efficient and holistic evaluation regarding management issues. This study focuses on coral reefs because they are particularly threatened ecosystems, due to their ecological complexity, socio-economic importance, and the range of environmental drivers that impact them. Research has largely concentrated on assessing proximate threats to coral reefs. Less attention has been given to distal drivers, such as socio-economic and governance factors. A common understanding of threats related to coral reef degradation is critical for integrated management that takes account of peoples’ concerns. This study compares perceptions of drivers of reef health among stakeholders (n = 110) across different sectors and governance levels, in four Caribbean countries. Interview data identified 37 proximate and 136 distal drivers, categorised into 27 themes. Five sub-groups of themes connecting proximate and distal drivers were identified. Perceptions of two of these narratives, relating to ‘fishing and socioeconomic issues’ and ‘reef management and coastal development’, differed among respondents from different countries and sectors respectively. However, the findings highlight a shared perception of many themes, with 18 of the 27 (67%) mentioned by > 25% of respondents. This paper highlights the application of perceptions data for marine management, demonstrating how knowledge of proximate and distal drivers can be applied to identify important issues at different context-specific scales

Zwischen Tradition und Emanzipation: Frauen in Südasien

Auch in diesem Jahr fand die Jahrestagung des Literaturforums Indien e.V. wieder in der Evangelischen Akademie Villigst statt. Zum Thema „Frauen in Südasien zwischen Tradition und Emanzipation“ gab es vom 24. bis 26. Mai Vorträge, Diskussionen und Workshops, dazu Beiträge über Frauenportraits und -Schicksale aus dem Bereich der Literatur, des Dokumentar- und Spielfilms

Social fit of coral reef governance varies among individuals

Improved natural resource governance is critical for the effective conservation of ecosystems, and the well-being of societies that depend on them. Understanding the social fit of institutional arrangements in different contexts can help guide the design of effective environmental governance. This empirical study assessed individual-level variation in institutional acceptance of coral reef governance among 652 respondents in 12 fishing and tourism-oriented communities in the Wider Caribbean. High institutional acceptance was strongly associated with perceptions of community cohesiveness, underlining the potential contribution of civil society to effective governance processes. Institutional acceptance was also influenced by reef use, awareness of rules, perceived trends in reef fish populations, education, and contextual community-level factors. Understanding what influences diverse perceptions of coral reef governance among individuals can help to assess the likelihood of support for conservation measures. This study highlights how knowledge of institutional acceptance can inform the design of more targeted interventions that enhance the social fit of conservation governance to local contexts and diverse resource users

Residual emissions in long-term national climate strategies show limited climate ambition

Net-zero targets imply a need to compensate for residual emissions through the deployment of carbon dioxide removal methods. Yet the extent of residual emissions within national climate plans, alongside their distribution, is largely unexplored. Here, we analyze 71 long-term national climate strategies to understand how national governments engage with residual emissions. Screening 139 scenarios, we determined that only 26 of the 71 strategies quantify residual emissions. Residual emissions are on average 21% of peak emissions for Annex I countries, ranging from 5% to 52% (excluding land use). For non-Annex I countries, residual emissions are on average 34%. By sector, agriculture represents the largest contributor to total residual emissions (on average, 36% for Annex I countries and 35% for non-Annex I countries). High-residual-emission scenarios show how some countries may retain or expand their fossil fuel production and use, using more carbon dioxide removal or international offsets to achieve net zero

Long-term national climate strategies bet on forests and soils to reach net-zero

The deployment of carbon dioxide removal is essential to reach global and national net-zero emissions targets, but little attention has been paid to its practical deployment by countries. Here, we analyse how carbon dioxide removal methods are integrated into 41 of the 50 Long-term Low Emission Development Strategies submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), before 2022. We show that enhancing forest and soil carbon sinks are the most advocated strategies but are only explicitly quantified in 12. Residual emissions by 2050 are only quantified in 20 strategies and most of them use forests to achieve national net-zero targets. Strategies that quantify both residual emissions and carbon dioxide removal identify national constraints, such as wildfire risks to forests and limited geological CO2 storage capacity. These strategies also highlight the need for international cooperation. Taken together, we suggest that the UNFCCC should urgently strengthen its reporting requirements on long-term national climate strategies

Expanding narratives of governance constraints to improve coral reef conservation

The widespread degradation of coral reefs is often attributed to local to global failures of governance. To understand and address the failures of reef governance it is critical to understand the perceptions of diverse policymakers and practitioners about the challenges they face in achieving their goals. Examining the discourse of policymakers and practitioners can reveal the extent to which these perceptions capture the full spectrum of potential governance challenges, including those related to management, institutional structures and processes, the values and principles underpinning governance, and the social and environmental context. This study examined the governance challenges perceived by 110 policymakers and practitioners across multiple sectors, scales and contexts in four countries of the Wider Caribbean Region. Thematic qualitative analysis informed by theories of interactive governance and governability found that perceived challenges were broadly consistent across countries, but differed by sector (V = 0.819, F(6, 60) = 1.502, p = 0.01) and by level (community compared to national; V = 0.194, F(1, 10) = 2.178, p = 0.026). The findings show that management inputs and outputs, challenges relating to the socio-economic context, issues of leadership and power, and stakeholder engagement were common themes. In contrast, few respondents discussed challenges relating to the ecological context, governance processes, or the values and principles underpinning governance. We argue that examining perceptions can inform both efforts to improve governance and to assess the appropriateness of particular management tools under context-specific governance constraints. Furthermore, expanding the narratives of governance challenges to encompass the subtle values and images underpinning governance, and the scale of the challenges faced, can help to identify a wider set of opportunities for change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Challenges to anticipatory coastal adaptation for transformative nature-based solutions

Much of England’s coastline is underprepared for adapting to long-term coastal change, with many coastal areas moving from ‘hold the line’ to managed realignment as this century progresses. This paper offers a unique case study of a frontage experiencing this transition. It explores the perspectives of Bacton and Walcott residents and coastal policymakers on managing the risk of coastal change for the Bacton-Walcott frontage on the Norfolk coast (UK), after the projected lifetime of a nature-based solution (NBS), known as sandscaping. Drawing upon survey and interview data, this research finds local residents have an increased sense of security of future coastal change through the perceived importance of the nearby Bacton Gas Terminal (currently supplying up to a third of the UK’s gas supply), and the protection afforded to it by sandscaping. For policymakers, sandscaping has bought time to prepare for managed realignment, whereas for residents, sandscaping has bought time to postpone it. There is a risk of maladaptation if reduced concern of future erosion affects willingness to engage in coastal adaptation in the present. This case study highlights the multiple temporal and spatial interests in coastal management, where decision-making at a local level has national-scale implications for domestic energy supply, and where novel nature-based solutions may bring additional uncertainty and complexity to building social resilience. It provides insights on the challenges of anticipatory adaptation, which is of relevance to other coastal areas looking to mitigate climate impacts and better prepare against future risk