Setting research priorities for global pandemic preparedness: An international consensus and comparison with ChatGPT’s output

Background In this priority-setting exercise, we sought to identify leading research priorities needed for strengthening future pandemic preparedness and response across countries. Methods The International Society of Global Health (ISoGH) used the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative (CHNRI) method to identify research priorities for future pandemic preparedness. Eighty experts in global health, translational and clinical research identified 163 research ideas, of which 42 experts then scored based on five pre-defined criteria. We calculated intermediate criterion-specific scores and overall research priority scores from the mean of individual scores for each research idea. We used a bootstrap (n = 1000) to compute the 95% confidence intervals. Results Key priorities included strengthening health systems, rapid vaccine and treatment production, improving international cooperation, and enhancing surveillance efficiency. Other priorities included learning from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, managing supply chains, identifying planning gaps, and promoting equitable interventions. We compared this CHNRI-based outcome with the 14 research priorities generated and ranked by ChatGPT, encountering both striking similarities and clear differences. Conclusions Priority setting processes based on human crowdsourcing – such as the CHNRI method – and the output provided by ChatGPT are both valuable, as they complement and strengthen each other. The priorities identified by ChatGPT were more grounded in theory, while those identified by CHNRI were guided by recent practical experiences. Addressing these priorities, along with improvements in health planning, equitable community-based interventions, and the capacity of primary health care, is vital for better pandemic preparedness and response in many settings

First application of Markov chain Monte Carlo-based Bayesian data analysis to the Doppler-shift attenuation method

Motivated primarily by the large uncertainties in the thermonuclear rate of the 30P(p,γ)31S reaction that limit our understanding of classical novae, we carried out lifetime measurements of 31S excited states using the Doppler Shift Lifetimes (DSL2) facility at the TRIUMF Isotope Separator and Accelerator (ISAC-II) facility. The 31S excited states were populated by the 3He(32S,α)31S reaction. The deexcitation γ rays were detected by a clover-type high-purity germanium detector in coincidence with the α particles detected by a silicon detector telescope. We have applied modern Markov chain Monte Carlo-based Bayesian statistical techniques to perform lineshape analyses of Doppler-shift attenuation method γ-ray data for the first time. We have determined the lifetimes of the two lowest-lying 31S excited states. First experimental upper limits on the lifetimes of four higher-lying states have been obtained. The experimental results were compared to shell-model calculations using five universal sd-shell Hamiltonians. Evidence for γ rays originating from the astrophysically important Jπ=3/2+, 260-keV 30P(p,γ)31S resonance with an excitation energy of Ex=6390.2(7) keV in 31S has also been observed, although strong constraints on the lifetime will require better statistics

The retrospective analysis of Antarctic tracking data project

The Retrospective Analysis of Antarctic Tracking Data (RAATD) is a Scientific Committee for Antarctic Research project led jointly by the Expert Groups on Birds and Marine Mammals and Antarctic Biodiversity Informatics, and endorsed by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources. RAATD consolidated tracking data for multiple species of Antarctic meso- and top-predators to identify Areas of Ecological Significance. These datasets and accompanying syntheses provide a greater understanding of fundamental ecosystem processes in the Southern Ocean, support modelling of predator distributions under future climate scenarios and create inputs that can be incorporated into decision making processes by management authorities. In this data paper, we present the compiled tracking data from research groups that have worked in the Antarctic since the 1990s. The data are publicly available through biodiversity.aq and the Ocean Biogeographic Information System. The archive includes tracking data from over 70 contributors across 12 national Antarctic programs, and includes data from 17 predator species, 4060 individual animals, and over 2.9 million observed locations

VLTI-MATISSE chromatic aperture-synthesis imaging of η Carinae\u27s stellar wind across the Br α line: Periastron passage observations in February 2020

Context. Eta Carinae is a highly eccentric, massive binary system (semimajor axis ~15.5 au) with powerful stellar winds and a phase-dependent wind-wind collision (WWC) zone. The primary star, η Car A, is a luminous blue variable (LBV); the secondary, η Car B, is a Wolf-Rayet or O star with a faster but less dense wind. Aperture-synthesis imaging allows us to study the mass loss from the enigmatic LBV η Car. Understanding LBVs is a crucial step toward improving our knowledge about massive stars and their evolution. Aims. Our aim is to study the intensity distribution and kinematics of η Car\u27s WWC zone. Methods. Using the VLTI-MATISSE mid-infrared interferometry instrument, we perform Brα imaging of η Car\u27s distorted wind. Results. We present the first VLTI-MATISSE aperture-synthesis images of η Car A\u27s stellar windin several spectral channels distributed across the Brα 4.052 μm line (spectral resolving power R ~ 960). Our observations were performed close to periastron passage in February 2020 (orbital phase ~ 14.0022). The reconstructed iso-velocity images show the dependence of the primary stellar wind on wavelength or line-of-sight (LOS) velocity with a spatial resolution of 6 mas (~14 au). The radius of the faintest outer wind regions is ~26 mas (~60 au). At several negative LOS velocities, the primary stellar wind is less extended to the northwest than in other directions. This asymmetry is most likely caused by the WWC. Therefore, we see both the velocity field of the undisturbed primary wind and the WWC cavity. In continuum spectral channels, the primary star wind is more compact than in line channels. A fit of the observed continuum visibilities with the visibilities of a stellar wind CMFGEN model (CMFGEN is an atmosphere code developed to model the spectra of a variety of objects) provides a full width at half maximum fit diameter of the primary stellar wind of 2.84 ± 0.06 mas (6.54 ± 0.14 au). We comparethe derived intensity distributions with the CMFGEN stellar wind model and hydrodynamic WWC models

Potential health and economic impacts of dexamethasone treatment for patients with COVID-19

Dexamethasone can reduce mortality in hospitalised COVID-19 patients needing oxygen and ventilation by 18% and 36%, respectively. Here, we estimate the potential number of lives saved and life years gained if this treatment were to be rolled out in the UK and globally, as well as the cost-effectiveness of implementing this intervention. Assuming SARS-CoV-2 exposure levels of 5% to 15%, we estimate that, for the UK, approximately 12,000 (4,250 - 27,000) lives could be saved between July and December 2020. Assuming that dexamethasone has a similar effect size in settings where access to oxygen therapies is limited, this would translate into approximately 650,000 (240,000 - 1,400,000) lives saved globally over the same time period. If dexamethasone acts differently in these settings, the impact could be less than half of this value. To estimate the full potential of dexamethasone in the global fight against COVID-19, it is essential to perform clinical research in settings with limited access to oxygen and/or ventilators, for example in low- and middle-income countries

PDRs4All VIII. Mid-infrared emission line inventory of the Orion Bar

Context. Mid-infrared emission features are important probes of the properties of ionized gas and hot or warm molecular gas, which are difficult to probe at other wavelengths. The Orion Bar photodissociation region (PDR) is a bright, nearby, and frequently studied target containing large amounts of gas under these conditions. Under the “PDRs4All” Early Release Science Program for JWST, a part of the Orion Bar was observed with MIRI integral field unit (IFU) spectroscopy, and these high-sensitivity IR spectroscopic images of very high angular resolution (0.2′′) provide a rich observational inventory of the mid-infrared (MIR) emission lines, while resolving the H II region, the ionization front, and multiple dissociation fronts. Aims. We list, identify, and measure the most prominent gas emission lines in the Orion Bar using the new MIRI IFU data. An initial analysis summarizes the physical conditions of the gas and demonstrates the potential of these new data and future IFU observations with JWST. Methods. The MIRI IFU mosaic spatially resolves the substructure of the PDR, its footprint cutting perpendicularly across the ionization front and three dissociation fronts. We performed an up-to-date data reduction, and extracted five spectra that represent the ionized, atomic, and molecular gas layers. We identified the observed lines through a comparison with theoretical line lists derived from atomic data and simulated PDR models. The identified species and transitions are summarized in the main table of this work, with measurements of the line intensities and central wavelengths. Results. We identified around 100 lines and report an additional 18 lines that remain unidentified. The majority consists of H I recombination lines arising from the ionized gas layer bordering the PDR. The H I line ratios are well matched by emissivity coefficients from H recombination theory, but deviate by up to 10% because of contamination by He I lines. We report the observed emission lines of various ionization stages of Ne, P, S, Cl, Ar, Fe, and Ni. We show how the Ne III/Ne II, S IV/S III, and Ar III/Ar II ratios trace the conditions in the ionized layer bordering the PDR, while Fe III/Fe II and Ni III/Ni II exhibit a different behavior, as there are significant contributions to Fe II and Ni II from the neutral PDR gas. We observe the pure-rotational H2 lines in the vibrational ground state from 0–0 S(1) to 0–0 S(8), and in the first vibrationally excited state from 1–1 S(5) to 1–1 S(9). We derive H2 excitation diagrams, and for the three observed dissociation fronts, the rotational excitation can be approximated with one thermal (∼700 K) component representative of an average gas temperature, and one nonthermal component (∼2700 K) probing the effect of UV pumping. We compare these results to an existing model of the Orion Bar PDR, and find that the predicted excitation matches the data qualitatively, while adjustments to the parameters of the PDR model are required to reproduce the intensity of the 0–0 S(6) to S(8) lines

Achievement of Target Gain Larger than Unity in an Inertial Fusion Experiment

On December 5, 2022, an indirect drive fusion implosion on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) achieved a target gain Gtarget of 1.5. This is the first laboratory demonstration of exceeding scientific breakeven (or Gtarget\u3e1) where 2.05 MJ of 351 nm laser light produced 3.1 MJ of total fusion yield, a result which significantly exceeds the Lawson criterion for fusion ignition as reported in a previous NIF implosion [H. Abu-Shawareb et al. (Indirect Drive ICF Collaboration), Phys. Rev. Lett. 129, 075001 (2022)PRLTAO0031-900710.1103/PhysRevLett.129.075001]. This achievement is the culmination of more than five decades of research and gives proof that laboratory fusion, based on fundamental physics principles, is possible. This Letter reports on the target, laser, design, and experimental advancements that led to this result

Genomic analyses of hair from Ludwig van Beethoven

Ludwig van Beethoven (1770–1827) remains among the most influential and popular classical music composers. Health problems significantly impacted his career as a composer and pianist, including progressive hearing loss, recurring gastrointestinal complaints, and liver disease. In 1802, Beethoven requested that following his death, his disease be described and made public. Medical biographers have since proposed numerous hypotheses, including many substantially heritable conditions. Here we attempt a genomic analysis of Beethoven in order to elucidate potential underlying genetic and infectious causes of his illnesses. We incorporated improvements in ancient DNA methods into existing protocols for ancient hair samples, enabling the sequencing of high-coverage genomes from small quantities of historical hair. We analyzed eight independently sourced locks of hair attributed to Beethoven, five of which originated from a single European male. We deemed these matching samples to be almost certainly authentic and sequenced Beethoven\u27s genome to 24-fold genomic coverage. Although we could not identify a genetic explanation for Beethoven\u27s hearing disorder or gastrointestinal problems, we found that Beethoven had a genetic predisposition for liver disease. Metagenomic analyses revealed furthermore that Beethoven had a hepatitis B infection during at least the months prior to his death. Together with the genetic predisposition and his broadly accepted alcohol consumption, these present plausible explanations for Beethoven\u27s severe liver disease, which culminated in his death. Unexpectedly, an analysis of Y chromosomes sequenced from five living members of the Van Beethoven patrilineage revealed the occurrence of an extra-pair paternity event in Ludwig van Beethoven\u27s patrilineal ancestry

Runs of homozygosity in killer whale genomes provide a global record of demographic histories

Runs of homozygosity (ROH) occur when offspring inherit haplotypes that are identical by descent from each parent. Length distributions of ROH are informative about population history; specifically, the probability of inbreeding mediated by mating system and/or population demography. Here, we investigated whether variation in killer whale (Orcinus orca) demographic history is reflected in genome-wide heterozygosity and ROH length distributions, using a global data set of 26 genomes representative of geographic and ecotypic variation in this species, and two F1 admixed individuals with Pacific-Atlantic parentage. We first reconstructed demographic history for each population as changes in effective population size through time using the pairwise sequential Markovian coalescent (PSMC) method. We found a subset of populations declined in effective population size during the Late Pleistocene, while others had more stable demography. Genomes inferred to have undergone ancestral declines in effective population size, were autozygous at hundreds of short ROH (\u3c1 \u3eMb), reflecting high background relatedness due to coalescence of haplotypes deep within the pedigree. In contrast, longer and therefore younger ROH (\u3e1.5 Mb) were found in low latitude populations, and populations of known conservation concern. These include a Scottish killer whale, for which 37.8% of the autosomes were comprised of ROH \u3e1.5 Mb in length. The fate of this population, in which only two adult males have been sighted in the past five years, and zero fecundity over the last two decades, may be inextricably linked to its demographic history and consequential inbreeding depression

PDRs4All: IV. An embarrassment of riches: Aromatic infrared bands in the Orion Bar

Context. Mid-infrared observations of photodissociation regions (PDRs) are dominated by strong emission features called aromatic infrared bands (AIBs). The most prominent AIBs are found at 3.3, 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, and 11.2 µm. The most sensitive, highest-resolution infrared spectral imaging data ever taken of the prototypical PDR, the Orion Bar, have been captured by JWST. These high-quality data allow for an unprecedentedly detailed view of AIBs. Aims. We provide an inventory of the AIBs found in the Orion Bar, along with mid-IR template spectra from five distinct regions in the Bar: the molecular PDR (i.e. the three H2 dissociation fronts), the atomic PDR, and the H II region. Methods. We used JWST NIRSpec IFU and MIRI MRS observations of the Orion Bar from the JWST Early Release Science Program, PDRs4All (ID: 1288). We extracted five template spectra to represent the morphology and environment of the Orion Bar PDR. We investigated and characterised the AIBs in these template spectra. We describe the variations among them here. Results. The superb sensitivity and the spectral and spatial resolution of these JWST observations reveal many details of the AIB emission and enable an improved characterization of their detailed profile shapes and sub-components. The Orion Bar spectra are dominated by the well-known AIBs at 3.3, 6.2, 7.7, 8.6, 11.2, and 12.7 µm with well-defined profiles. In addition, the spectra display a wealth of weaker features and sub-components. The widths of many AIBs show clear and systematic variations, being narrowest in the atomic PDR template, but showing a clear broadening in the H II region template while the broadest bands are found in the three dissociation front templates. In addition, the relative strengths of AIB (sub-)components vary among the template spectra as well. All AIB profiles are characteristic of class A sources as designated by Peeters (2022, A&A, 390, 1089), except for the 11.2 µm AIB profile deep in the molecular zone, which belongs to class B11.2. Furthermore, the observations show that the sub-components that contribute to the 5.75, 7.7, and 11.2 µm AIBs become much weaker in the PDR surface layers. We attribute this to the presence of small, more labile carriers in the deeper PDR layers that are photolysed away in the harsh radiation field near the surface. The 3.3/11.2 AIB intensity ratio decreases by about 40% between the dissociation fronts and the H II region, indicating a shift in the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) size distribution to larger PAHs in the PDR surface layers, also likely due to the effects of photochemistry. The observed broadening of the bands in the molecular PDR is consistent with an enhanced importance of smaller PAHs since smaller PAHs attain a higher internal excitation energy at a fixed photon energy. Conclusions. Spectral-imaging observations of the Orion Bar using JWST yield key insights into the photochemical evolution of PAHs, such as the evolution responsible for the shift of 11.2 µm AIB emission from class B11.2 in the molecular PDR to class A11.2 in the PDR surface layers. This photochemical evolution is driven by the increased importance of FUV processing in the PDR surface layers, resulting in a “weeding out” of the weakest links of the PAH family in these layers. For now, these JWST observations are consistent with a model in which the underlying PAH family is composed of a few species: the so-called ‘grandPAHs’