Pedalling for safety: Schoolchildren and safe active transport

This research will add to the international body of knowledge around safe active transport and its benefits for individuals and their communities. In order to achieve this, the report begins with a brief description of the risks associated with active transport, 3 and considers why active transport to school should be encouraged, despite the risks. Our dependence on cars is discussed in relation to the prevailing chauffeuring culture, before the objectives of the research are outlined. Chapter one concludes with an account of the methodology used to undertake this research, which combined a literature review and a search for educational resources with some participant observation field research. In chapter 2 we present a summary of the resources available to parents in Hamilton and provide a profile of the city, which is in many ways ideally suited to active transport, though participation rates are low. Chapter 3 discusses the benefits of active transport and the barriers to participation in it. Following a discussion that draws all the various strands together, we evaluate existing strategies with a view to endorsing those most likely to enhance safety, while also offering some further ideas on how to minimise the risks of active transport for children

Save Your Breath: A Constitutional Analysis of the Criminal Penalties for Refusing Breathalyzer Tests in the Wake of \u3ci\u3eBirchfield v. North Dakota\u3c/i\u3e

Statutes that criminally penalize suspected drunk drivers who refuse to submit to testing of their blood alcohol concentration emerged in a number of states as a way to better enforce implied consent statutes that require drivers submit to such testing. In Birchfield v. North Dakota, the Supreme Court held that statutes that criminally punish individuals for refusing a blood test were unconstitutional but upheld criminal refusal statutes regarding breath tests. Much of the reasoning in the majority’s opinion stemmed from a shallow perception of the invasion that breath tests pose to individual privacy interests. Justice Sotomayor’s dissenting opinion noted that where search warrants are reasonably available, a state’s governmental interest in collecting evidence and promoting safety is lower than the individual privacy interests at stake. This Comment is about post-Birchfield strategies for challenging statutes that criminalize refusal to submit to a breathalyzer test. This Comment approaches the issue from a novel, bottom-up approach that argues individuals will be most successful in challenging criminal refusal statutes in state courts under a substantive due process framework that implicates state constitutional rights. This Comment also sheds light on the underreported and significant issue of criminally punishing individuals whose language barriers or hearing impairments prevent them from fully understanding the consequences of refusing a breath test. While drunk driving is undoubtedly a severe problem that requires regulation, the goal should be to preserve fundamental liberty interests with viable legal and policy alternatives that can effectively curb drunk driving rates

A reverse pathway? Actual and perceived skill proficiency and physical activity

Purpose: Motor skills are considered a prerequisite to physical activity, yet the relationship may be reciprocal and perceived sports competence might mediate associations.Methods: In 2006/2007, 215 adolescents completed motor skill proficiency (Get Skilled Get Active), perceived sport competence (Physical Self-Perception Profile) and physical activity assessments (Adolescent Physical Activity Recall Questionnaire) as part of the Physical Activity and Skills Study. Using AMOS (Version 7.0), reciprocal relationships were examined between motor skill (object control and locomotor) and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA). Both models were then run in different versions to understand the role of perceived sports competence as a potential mediator. Results: Mean age was 16.4 yr (SD = 0.6), 51.6% (111/215) were females. A reciprocal relationship between object control and MVPA and a one-way relationship from MVPA to locomotor skill was found. When perceived sports competence was examined as a mediator, the best-fitting model versions explained 16% (R&sup2; = 0.16)MVPA variation, and 30% object control (R&sup2; = 0.30), and 12% locomotor skill variation (R&sup2; = 0.12) (reverse relationship). Perceived sports competence partially mediates the relationship between object control proficiency and physical activity for both directions and fully mediates the relationship between physical activity and locomotor skill; but only when locomotor skill is the outcome.Conclusions: If the relationship between object control skill and physical activity is viewed as a &lsquo;&lsquo;positive feedback loop,&rsquo;&rsquo; skill development and increasing physical activity should simultaneously be targeted in physical activity interventions. Increasing perceived sport competence should also be an intervention focus.<br /

Outstanding challenges in the transferability of ecological models

Predictive models are central to many scientific disciplines and vital for informing management in a rapidly changing world. However, limited understanding of the accuracy and precision of models transferred to novel conditions (their ‘transferability’) undermines confidence in their predictions. Here, 50 experts identified priority knowledge gaps which, if filled, will most improve model transfers. These are summarized into six technical and six fundamental challenges, which underlie the combined need to intensify research on the determinants of ecological predictability, including species traits and data quality, and develop best practices for transferring models. Of high importance is the identification of a widely applicable set of transferability metrics, with appropriate tools to quantify the sources and impacts of prediction uncertainty under novel conditions

Stimulus frequency modulates brainstem response to respiratory-gated transcutaneous auricular vagus nerve stimulation

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Global burden of 87 risk factors in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Rigorous analysis of levels and trends in exposure to leading risk factors and quantification of their effect on human health are important to identify where public health is making progress and in which cases current efforts are inadequate. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 provides a standardised and comprehensive assessment of the magnitude of risk factor exposure, relative risk, and attributable burden of disease. Methods: GBD 2019 estimated attributable mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years of life lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 87 risk factors and combinations of risk factors, at the global level, regionally, and for 204 countries and territories. GBD uses a hierarchical list of risk factors so that specific risk factors (eg, sodium intake), and related aggregates (eg, diet quality), are both evaluated. This method has six analytical steps. (1) We included 560 risk–outcome pairs that met criteria for convincing or probable evidence on the basis of research studies. 12 risk–outcome pairs included in GBD 2017 no longer met inclusion criteria and 47 risk–outcome pairs for risks already included in GBD 2017 were added based on new evidence. (2) Relative risks were estimated as a function of exposure based on published systematic reviews, 81 systematic reviews done for GBD 2019, and meta-regression. (3) Levels of exposure in each age-sex-location-year included in the study were estimated based on all available data sources using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression method, or alternative methods. (4) We determined, from published trials or cohort studies, the level of exposure associated with minimum risk, called the theoretical minimum risk exposure level. (5) Attributable deaths, YLLs, YLDs, and DALYs were computed by multiplying population attributable fractions (PAFs) by the relevant outcome quantity for each age-sex-location-year. (6) PAFs and attributable burden for combinations of risk factors were estimated taking into account mediation of different risk factors through other risk factors. Across all six analytical steps, 30 652 distinct data sources were used in the analysis. Uncertainty in each step of the analysis was propagated into the final estimates of attributable burden. Exposure levels for dichotomous, polytomous, and continuous risk factors were summarised with use of the summary exposure value to facilitate comparisons over time, across location, and across risks. Because the entire time series from 1990 to 2019 has been re-estimated with use of consistent data and methods, these results supersede previously published GBD estimates of attributable burden. Findings: The largest declines in risk exposure from 2010 to 2019 were among a set of risks that are strongly linked to social and economic development, including household air pollution; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; and child growth failure. Global declines also occurred for tobacco smoking and lead exposure. The largest increases in risk exposure were for ambient particulate matter pollution, drug use, high fasting plasma glucose, and high body-mass index. In 2019, the leading Level 2 risk factor globally for attributable deaths was high systolic blood pressure, which accounted for 10·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 9·51–12·1) deaths (19·2% [16·9–21·3] of all deaths in 2019), followed by tobacco (smoked, second-hand, and chewing), which accounted for 8·71 million (8·12–9·31) deaths (15·4% [14·6–16·2] of all deaths in 2019). The leading Level 2 risk factor for attributable DALYs globally in 2019 was child and maternal malnutrition, which largely affects health in the youngest age groups and accounted for 295 million (253–350) DALYs (11·6% [10·3–13·1] of all global DALYs that year). The risk factor burden varied considerably in 2019 between age groups and locations. Among children aged 0–9 years, the three leading detailed risk factors for attributable DALYs were all related to malnutrition. Iron deficiency was the leading risk factor for those aged 10–24 years, alcohol use for those aged 25–49 years, and high systolic blood pressure for those aged 50–74 years and 75 years and older. Interpretation: Overall, the record for reducing exposure to harmful risks over the past three decades is poor. Success with reducing smoking and lead exposure through regulatory policy might point the way for a stronger role for public policy on other risks in addition to continued efforts to provide information on risk factor harm to the general public

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019 : a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. Methods: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10–14 and 50–54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. Findings: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66–2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17–2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5–137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0–146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2–144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4–27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8–67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8–74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5–51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7–59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1–10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3–6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0–6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5–8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1–60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8–66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019

Quantitative systems toxicology: modelling to mechanistically understand and predict drug safety

Reliable prediction and prevention of adverse drug reactions (ADRs) remains a key challenge in the development of new medicines. Advanced mathematical and computational modelling approaches, which incorporate cutting-edge mechanistic understanding of ADRs in concert with systematically collected data addressing knowledge gaps, are integral components of model-informed drug discovery and development (MID3). These approaches provide a precise, quantitative framework for predicting and mitigating safety risks in the earliest phases of drug development. Here, we highlight recent developments in the burgeoning field of quantitative systems toxicology (QST), including insights into the current state-of-the-art, as well as outcomes from the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) 2 TransQST project. QST models that describe the disruption of cardiovascular, gastrointestinal, hepatic and renal physiological functions following drug exposure are presented, along with recommendations for their application in drug discovery and development