Multimorbidity: What do we know? What should we do?

Multimorbidity, which is defined as the co-occurrence of two or more chronic conditions, has moved onto the priority agenda for many health policymakers and healthcare providers. Patients with multimorbidity are high utilizers of healthcare resources and are some of the most costly and difficult-to-treat patients in Europe. Preventing and improving the way multimorbidity is managed is now a key priority for many countries, and work is at last underway to develop more sustainable models of care. Unfortunately, this effort is being hampered by a lack of basic knowledge about the aetiology, epidemiology, and risk factors for multimorbidity, and the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of different interventions. The European Commission recognizes the need for reform in this area and has committed to raising awareness of multimorbidity, encouraging innovation, optimizing the use of existing resources, and coordinating the efforts of different stakeholders across the European Union. Many countries have now incorporated multimorbidity into their own healthcare strategies and are working to strengthen their prevention efforts and develop more integrated models of care. Although there is some evidence that integrated care for people with multimorbidity can create efficiency gains and improve health outcomes, the evidence is limited, and may only be applicable to high-income countries with relatively strong and well-resourced health systems. In low- to middle-income countries, which are facing the double burden of infectious and chronic diseases, integration of care will require capacity building, better quality services, and a stronger evidence base. Journal of Comorbidity 2016;6(1):4–1

Managing Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factors in Developing Countries: Tobacco Control, Cardiovascular Disease Risk Surveillance, and Diabetes Prevention

Non-communicable diseases (cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes, and mental illnesses) and associated risk factors (unhealthy diets, physical inactivity, harmful use of alcohol, physical inactivity) are on the rise in developing countries, posing a threat to the health and financial systems of emerging economies. In response, international organizations and Ministries of Health alike have started to tackle chronic diseases and associated risk factors with policies and treatment programs. Yet to this day, the body of evidence for best practices regarding the monitoring, prevention, and control of non-communicable diseases in low- and middle-income countries remains small. This doctoral thesis adds to this body of evidence. The first paper of my thesis assesses the impact of a national tobacco control program in high schools in Chile. Specifically, it evaluates the effectiveness and makes several policy recommendations based on the findings. My second dissertation paper assesses the modifying effect of a change in anti-retroviral treatment among HIV-positive subjects in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa on cardiovascular disease risk factors of high body mass index and high blood pressure. The third paper is based on a randomized controlled trial assessing the effectiveness of a social-network-based diabetes and weight management program in Jordan.Global Health and Populatio

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40 : development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential.Peer reviewe

Tau hadronic branching ratios

From 64492 selected \tau-pair events, produced at the Z^0 resonance, the measurement of the tau decays into hadrons from a global analysis using 1991, 1992 and 1993 ALEPH data is presented. Special emphasis is given to the reconstruction of photons and \pi^0's, and the removal of fake photons. A detailed study of the systematics entering the \pi^0 reconstruction is also given. A complete and consistent set of tau hadronic branching ratios is presented for 18 exclusive modes. Most measurements are more precise than the present world average. The new level of precision reached allows a stringent test of \tau-\mu universality in hadronic decays, g_\tau/g_\mu \ = \ 1.0013 \ \pm \ 0.0095, and the first measurement of the vector and axial-vector contributions to the non-strange hadronic \tau decay width: R_{\tau ,V} \ = \ 1.788 \ \pm \ 0.025 and R_{\tau ,A} \ = \ 1.694 \ \pm \ 0.027. The ratio (R_{\tau ,V} - R_{\tau ,A}) / (R_{\tau ,V} + R_{\tau ,A}), equal to (2.7 \pm 1.3) \ \%, is a measure of the importance of QCD non-perturbative contributions to the hadronic \tau decay widt

Future and potential spending on health 2015-40: Development assistance for health, and government, prepaid private, and out-of-pocket health spending in 184 countries

Background: The amount of resources, particularly prepaid resources, available for health can affect access to health care and health outcomes. Although health spending tends to increase with economic development, tremendous variation exists among health financing systems. Estimates of future spending can be beneficial for policy makers and planners, and can identify financing gaps. In this study, we estimate future gross domestic product (GDP), all-sector government spending, and health spending disaggregated by source, and we compare expected future spending to potential future spending. Methods: We extracted GDP, government spending in 184 countries from 1980-2015, and health spend data from 1995-2014. We used a series of ensemble models to estimate future GDP, all-sector government spending, development assistance for health, and government, out-of-pocket, and prepaid private health spending through 2040. We used frontier analyses to identify patterns exhibited by the countries that dedicate the most funding to health, and used these frontiers to estimate potential health spending for each low-income or middle-income country. All estimates are inflation and purchasing power adjusted. Findings: We estimated that global spending on health will increase from US$9.21 trillion in 2014 to$24.24 trillion (uncertainty interval [UI] 20.47-29.72) in 2040. We expect per capita health spending to increase fastest in upper-middle-income countries, at 5.3% (UI 4.1-6.8) per year. This growth is driven by continued growth in GDP, government spending, and government health spending. Lower-middle income countries are expected to grow at 4.2% (3.8-4.9). High-income countries are expected to grow at 2.1% (UI 1.8-2.4) and low-income countries are expected to grow at 1.8% (1.0-2.8). Despite this growth, health spending per capita in low-income countries is expected to remain low, at $154 (UI 133-181) per capita in 2030 and$195 (157-258) per capita in 2040. Increases in national health spending to reach the level of the countries who spend the most on health, relative to their level of economic development, would mean $321 (157-258) per capita was available for health in 2040 in low-income countries. Interpretation: Health spending is associated with economic development but past trends and relationships suggest that spending will remain variable, and low in some low-resource settings. Policy change could lead to increased health spending, although for the poorest countries external support might remain essential

Production of excited beauty states in Z decays

A data sample of about 3.0 million hadronic Z decays collected by the ALEPH experiment at LEP in the years 1991 through 1994, is used to make an inclusive selection of B~hadron events. In this event sample 4227 \pm 140 \pm 252 B^* mesons in the decay B^* \to B \gamma and 1944 \pm 108 \pm 161 B^{**} mesons decaying into a B~meson and a charged pion are reconstructed. For the well established B^* meson the following quantities areobtained: \Delta M = M_{B^*} - M_{B} = (45.30\pm 0.35\pm 0.87)~\mathrm{MeV}/c^2 and N_{B^*}/(N_B+N_{B^*}) = (77.1 \pm 2.6 \pm 7.0)\%. The angular distribution of the photons in the B^* rest frame is used to measure the relative contribution of longitudinal B^* polarization states to be \sigma_L/(\sigma_L + \sigma_T)= (33 \pm 6 \pm 5)\%. \\ Resonance structure in the M(B\pi)-M(B) mass difference is observed at (424 \pm 4 \pm 10)~\mathrm{MeV}/c^2. Its shape and position is in agreement with the expectation for B^{**}_{u,d} states decaying into B_{u,d}^{(*)} \pi^\pm. The signal is therefore interpreted as arising from them. The relative production rate is determined to be \frac{BR(Z \to b \to B_{u,d}^{**})}{BR(Z \to b \to B_{u,d})} = [27.9 \pm 1.6(stat) \pm 5.9(syst) \phantom{a}^{+3.9}_{-5.6}(model)]\%. where the third error reflects the uncertainty due to different production and decay models for the broad B_{u,d}^{**} states

Search for massive, long-lived particles using multitrack displaced vertices or displaced lepton pairs in pp collisions at √s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Many extensions of the Standard Model posit the existence of heavy particles with long lifetimes. This article presents the results of a search for events containing at least one long-lived particle that decays at a significant distance from its production point into two leptons or into five or more charged particles. This analysis uses a data sample of proton-proton collisions at √s=8  TeV corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 20.3  fb−1 collected in 2012 by the ATLAS detector operating at the Large Hadron Collider. No events are observed in any of the signal regions, and limits are set on model parameters within supersymmetric scenarios involving R-parity violation, split supersymmetry, and gauge mediation. In some of the search channels, the trigger and search strategy are based only on the decay products of individual long-lived particles, irrespective of the rest of the event. In these cases, the provided limits can easily be reinterpreted in different scenarios