Trade and Uneven Growth

We consider trade between two countries of unequal size, where the creation of new intermediate inputs occurs in both. We assume that the knowledge gained from R&D in one country does not spillover to the other. Under autarky, the larger country would have a higher rate of product creation. When trade occurs in the final goods, we find that the smaller country has its rate of product creation stowed, even in the long run. In contrast, the larger country enjoys a temporary increase in its rate of R&D. We also examine the welfare consequences of trade in the final goods, which depend on whether the intermediate inputs are traded or not.

Incentive Compatible Trade Policies

We consider a two country trade model with production uncertainty. If complete contingent markets do not exist, it is desirable for governments to adopt some trade policies to share the production risk. A full information policy involves income transfers across countries, which can be achieved by equal import tariffs and export subsidies. With incomplete information we consider incentive compatible trade policies, which are designed to be truth revealing while partially sharing the production risk. In this case the tariff in one country may differ from the export subsidy abroad.

Gains from Trade in Differentiated Products: Japanese Compact Trucks

We present a methodology for estimating the welfare gains from a product with new characteristics, and apply it to Japanese and American compact trucks. Our approach can be used on any products for which a hedonic regression can be estimated. For 1979-80 we find average welfare gains of $500-600 per Japanese truck. In later years the benefit to consumers is reduced by the tariff on imports and the introduction of American compact models. American compacts have consumer gains which are much less than the average for Japanese models, since for each American compact there is an import with very similar characteristics.

Buyer Investment, Product Variety, and Intrafirm Trade

This paper studies a simple model of buyer investment and its effect on the variety and vertical structure of international trade. A distinction is made between two types of buyer investment: "flexible" and "specific." Their interactions with the entry and pricing incentives of suppliers are analyzed. It is shown that (i) there can be multiple equilibria in the variety of products traded, and (ii) less product variety is associated with more intrafirm trade. The possibility of multiple equilibria is consistent with the observation that some similar economies, such as Taiwan and South Korea, differ substantially in their export varieties to the U.S. A formal empirical analysis confirms the negative correlation between product variety and intrafirm trade.

China's Exports and Employment

Dooley et al (2003, 2004a,b,c) argue that China seeks to raise urban employment by 10-12 million persons per year, with about 30% of that coming from export growth. In fact, total employment increased by 7.5-8 million per year over 1997-2005. We estimate that export growth over 1997-2002 contributed at most 2.5 million jobs per year, with most of the employment gains coming from non-traded goods like construction. Exports grew much faster over the 2000-2005 period, which could in principal explain the entire increase in employment. However, the growth in domestic demand led to three-times more employment gains than did exports over 2000-2005, while productivity growth subtracted the same amount again from employment. We conclude that exports have become increasingly important in stimulating employment in China, but that the same gains could be obtained from growth in domestic demand, especially for tradable goods, which has been stagnant until at least 2002.

Quality Upgrading and its Welfare Cost in U.S. Steel Imports, 1969-74

In this paper we measure the quality change which has occurred in U.S. steel imports during the 1969-74 VRA, using an index number method. Under this approach, the yearly changes in unit values is broken into three components: a quality-adjusted or pure price index; a quality index, which measures changes in the product mix; and a supplier index, which measures changes in the source of supply. We also derive a measure of welfare cost, which equals the inverse of a Paasche price index minus the inverse of an exact price index. Over the 1969-74 VRA period we find quality upgrading of 7.4 percent in U.S. steel imports, which occurs most strongly in the first year. The welfare cost of quality change varies around one percent of import expenditure during 1970-73. This cost is at least as large as the conventional deadweight loss triangle, but smaller than the transfer of quota rents.

Auctioning U.S. Import Quotas, Foreign Response, and Alternative Policies

In this paper we quantify the potential revenue available to the U.S. from auctioning import quotas, and the resulting drop in foreign producer surplus relative to free trade. Previous estimates of auction revenue are in the range of $3 7-5.15 billion for 1986 or 1987. Using simulation results from computable partial or general equilibrium models, we find that this revenue gain would be at the expense of a large drop in foreign producer surplus. Ignoring textiles and apparel, the potential auction revenue is$1 3-2.15 billion, and the foreign loss is $0.5-O.7 billion relative to free trade. One alternative to auction quotas is a system of tariff-rate quotas, which are designed to keep supplier countries welfare equal to that in free trade. We calculate that the tariff-rate quotas could raise$067-1.55 billion in revenue for the U.S. While this amount is less than available through auction quotas, it could still fund a significant program of worker adjustment, and would mitigate the foreign response.