An AUC-based Permutation Variable Importance Measure for Random Forests

The random forest (RF) method is a commonly used tool for classification with high dimensional data as well as for ranking candidate predictors based on the so-called random forest variable importance measures (VIMs). However the classification performance of RF is known to be suboptimal in case of strongly unbalanced data, i.e. data where response class sizes differ considerably. Suggestions were made to obtain better classification performance based either on sampling procedures or on cost sensitivity analyses. However to our knowledge the performance of the VIMs has not yet been examined in the case of unbalanced response classes. In this paper we explore the performance of the permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings and introduce an alternative permutation VIM based on the area under the curve (AUC) that is expected to be more robust towards class imbalance. We investigated the performance of the standard permutation VIM and of our novel AUC-based permutation VIM for different class imbalance levels using simulated data and real data. The results suggest that the standard permutation VIM loses its ability to discriminate between associated predictors and predictors not associated with the response for increasing class imbalance. It is outperformed by our new AUC-based permutation VIM for unbalanced data settings, while the performance of both VIMs is very similar in the case of balanced classes. The new AUC-based VIM is implemented in the R package party for the unbiased RF variant based on conditional inference trees. The codes implementing our study are available from the companion website: http://www.ibe.med.uni-muenchen.de/organisation/mitarbeiter/070_drittmittel/janitza/index.html

Dermal reaction and bigeminal premature ventricular contractions due to neostigmine: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Neostigmine is a frequently used acetylcholinesterase inhibitor administered to reverse muscular relaxation caused by nondepolarizing neuromuscular relaxants in patients recovering from general anesthesia. Severe allergic reactions and urticaria are rarely reported following the use of neostigmine bromide, and never with methylsulfate-containing drugs. In this case, bigeminal premature ventricular contractions added to urticaria provides a warning about the possibility of a life-threatening situation.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>We report the case of a 23-year-old Persian woman who presented with bigeminal premature ventricular contractions along with urticarial lesions on her arm and trunk as soon as she was administered neostigmine methylsulfate after undergoing a laparoscopy for ectopic pregnancy.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This case report could be of value not only for anesthesiologists who routinely use neostigmine but also for others who administer the pharmaceutical preparation in other situations. The report presents a rare case of drug reaction following neostigmine use. As a result, one should consider any drug a probable cause of drug reaction. The preparation of resuscitative facilities, therefore, is necessary prior to the prescription of the medication.</p

Economic tools to promote transparency and comparability in the Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement culminates a six-year transition towards an international climate policy architecture based on parties submitting national pledges every five years1. An important policy task will be to assess and compare these contributions2, 3. We use four integrated assessment models to produce metrics of Paris Agreement pledges, and show differentiated effort across countries: wealthier countries pledge to undertake greater emission reductions with higher costs. The pledges fall in the lower end of the distributions of the social cost of carbon and the cost-minimizing path to limiting warming to 2 °C, suggesting insufficient global ambition in light of leaders’ climate goals. Countries’ marginal abatement costs vary by two orders of magnitude, illustrating that large efficiency gains are available through joint mitigation efforts and/or carbon price coordination. Marginal costs rise almost proportionally with income, but full policy costs reveal more complex regional patterns due to terms of trade effects

The effect of acute vs chronic magnesium supplementation on exercise and recovery on resistance exercise, blood pressure and total peripheral resistance on normotensive adults

© 2015 Kass and Poeira; licensee BioMed Central. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.Background: Magnesium supplementation has previously shown reductions in blood pressure of up to 12 mmHg. A positive relationship between magnesium supplementation and performance gains in resistance exercise has also been seen. However, no previous studies have investigated loading strategies to optimise response. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of oral magnesium supplementation on resistance exercise and vascular response after intense exercise for an acute and chronic loading strategy on a 2-day repeat protocol. Methods: The study was a randomised, double-blind, cross-over design, placebo controlled 2 day repeat measure protocol (n = 13). Intense exercise (40 km time trial) was followed by bench press at 80% 1RM to exhaustion, with blood pressure and total peripheral resistance (TPR) recorded. 300 mg/d elemental magnesium was supplemented for either a 1 (A) or 4 (Chr) week loading strategy. Food diaries were recorded. Results: Dietary magnesium intake was above the Reference Nutrient Intake (RNI) for all groups. Bench press showed a significant increase of 17.7% (p = 0.031) for A on day 1. On day 2 A showed no decrease in performance whilst Chr showed a 32.1% decrease. On day 2 post-exercise systolic blood pressure (SBP) was significantly lower in both A (p = 0.0.47) and Chr (p = 0.016) groups. Diastolic blood pressure (DBP) showed significant decreases on day 2 solely for A (p = 0.047) with no changes in the Chr. TPR reduced for A on days 1 and 2 (p = 0.031) with Chr showing an increase on day 1 (p = 0.008) and no change on day 2. Conclusion: There was no cumulative effect of Chr supplementation compared to A. A group showed improvement for bench press concurring with previous research which was not seen in Chr. On day 2 A showed a small non-significant increase but not a decrement as expected with Chr showing a decrease. DBP showed reductions in both Chr and A loading, agreeing with previous literature. This is suggestive of a different mechanism for BP reduction than for muscular strength. TPR showed greater reductions with A than Chr, which would not be expected as both interventions had reductions in BP, which is associated with TPR.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Prediction of Preterm Deliveries from EHG Signals Using Machine Learning

There has been some improvement in the treatment of preterm infants, which has helped to increase their chance of survival. However, the rate of premature births is still globally increasing. As a result, this group of infants are most at risk of developing severe medical conditions that can affect the respiratory, gastrointestinal, immune, central nervous, auditory and visual systems. In extreme cases, this can also lead to long-term conditions, such as cerebral palsy, mental retardation, learning difficulties, including poor health and growth. In the US alone, the societal and economic cost of preterm births, in 2005, was estimated to be $26.2 billion, per annum. In the UK, this value was close to £2.95 billion, in 2009. Many believe that a better understanding of why preterm births occur, and a strategic focus on prevention, will help to improve the health of children and reduce healthcare costs. At present, most methods of preterm birth prediction are subjective. However, a strong body of evidence suggests the analysis of uterine electrical signals (Electrohysterography), could provide a viable way of diagnosing true labour and predict preterm deliveries. Most Electrohysterography studies focus on true labour detection during the final seven days, before labour. The challenge is to utilise Electrohysterography techniques to predict preterm delivery earlier in the pregnancy. This paper explores this idea further and presents a supervised machine learning approach that classifies term and preterm records, using an open source dataset containing 300 records (38 preterm and 262 term). The synthetic minority oversampling technique is used to oversample the minority preterm class, and cross validation techniques, are used to evaluate the dataset against other similar studies. Our approach shows an improvement on existing studies with 96% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and a 95% area under the curve value with 8% global error using the polynomial classifier

Magnesium hydroxide addition reduces aqueous carbon dioxide in wastewater discharged to the ocean

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) reduces the concentration of dissolved carbon dioxide (CO2) in seawater, leading to atmospheric carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Here we report laboratory experiments and a field-trial of alkalinity enhancement through addition of magnesium hydroxide to wastewater and its subsequent discharge to the coastal ocean. In wastewater, a 10% increase of average alkalinity (+0.56 mmol/kg) led to a 74% reduction in aqueous CO2 (−0.41 mmol/kg) and pH increase of 0.4 units to 7.78 (efficiency 0.73 molCO2/mol alkalinity). The alkalinization signal was limited to within a few metres of the ocean discharge, evident as 27.2 μatm reduction in CO2 partial pressure and 0.017 unit pH increase, and was consistent with rapid dilution of the alkali-treated wastewater. While this proof of concept field trial did not achieve CDR due to its small scale, it demonstrated the potential of magnesium hydroxide addition to wastewater as a CDR solution

Roc632: An overview

The present paper aims to analyze and explore the ROC632 package, specifying its main characteristics and functions. More specifically, the goal of this study is the evaluation of the effectiveness of the package and its strengths and weaknesses. This package was created in order to overcome the lack of information concerning incomplete time-to-event data, adapting the 0.632+ bootstrap estimator for the evaluation of time dependent ROC curves. By applying this package to a specific dataset (DLBCLpatients), it becomes possible to assess tangible data, determining if it is able to analyze complete and incomplete data efficiently and without bias.(undefined)info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum in pp collisions at √ s = 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector

Results of a search for new phenomena in final states with an energetic jet and large missing transverse momentum are reported. The search uses 20.3 fb−1 of √ s = 8 TeV data collected in 2012 with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. Events are required to have at least one jet with pT > 120 GeV and no leptons. Nine signal regions are considered with increasing missing transverse momentum requirements between Emiss T > 150 GeV and Emiss T > 700 GeV. Good agreement is observed between the number of events in data and Standard Model expectations. The results are translated into exclusion limits on models with either large extra spatial dimensions, pair production of weakly interacting dark matter candidates, or production of very light gravitinos in a gauge-mediated supersymmetric model. In addition, limits on the production of an invisibly decaying Higgs-like boson leading to similar topologies in the final state are presente

Non-Invasive Brain-to-Brain Interface (BBI): Establishing Functional Links between Two Brains

Transcranial focused ultrasound (FUS) is capable of modulating the neural activity of specific brain regions, with a potential role as a non-invasive computer-to-brain interface (CBI). In conjunction with the use of brain-to-computer interface (BCI) techniques that translate brain function to generate computer commands, we investigated the feasibility of using the FUS-based CBI to non-invasively establish a functional link between the brains of different species (i.e. human and Sprague-Dawley rat), thus creating a brain-to-brain interface (BBI). The implementation was aimed to non-invasively translate the human volunteer's intention to stimulate a rat's brain motor area that is responsible for the tail movement. The volunteer initiated the intention by looking at a strobe light flicker on a computer display, and the degree of synchronization in the electroencephalographic steady-state-visual-evoked-potentials (SSVEP) with respect to the strobe frequency was analyzed using a computer. Increased signal amplitude in the SSVEP, indicating the volunteer's intention, triggered the delivery of a burst-mode FUS (350 kHz ultrasound frequency, tone burst duration of 0.5 ms, pulse repetition frequency of 1 kHz, given for 300 msec duration) to excite the motor area of an anesthetized rat transcranially. The successful excitation subsequently elicited the tail movement, which was detected by a motion sensor. The interface was achieved at 94.0 +/- 3.0% accuracy, with a time delay of 1.59 +/- 1.07 sec from the thought-initiation to the creation of the tail movement. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of a computer-mediated BBI that links central neural functions between two biological entities, which may confer unexplored opportunities in the study of neuroscience with potential implications for therapeutic applications.open12