Impacts of agricultural produce cess (tax) reform options in Tanzania

This report presents the results of an impact analysis of several reform options of the agricultural produce cess in Tanzania. The produce cess is a levy charged by Local Governments Authorities (LGAs) on the value of the marketed agricultural production. This analysis is achieved using a micro-economic model applied to a representative sample of 3134 farm-households spread out over all the country coming from the World Bank-LSMS-ISA surveys. The potential effects of the simulated reform options on land use, production, input use, farm income, LGAs revenues and some food security related indicators are presented and discussed.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Modelling farm-household livelihoods in developing economies

This report presents the FSSIM-Dev (Farming System Simulator for Developing Countries) model, which is one of the decision-making tools developed by the JRC to provide independent evidence-based policy analysis in the areas of food and nutrition security and sustainable agriculture, specifically in sub-Saharan Africa. It aims to stimulate dialogue between scientists and policymakers, and to challenge them in better addressing the question of the ‘last mile’ between research results and concrete decision-making. FSSIM-Dev is a farm household model used to ex ante assess the impacts of agri-food policies and technological innovations on food security and rural poverty alleviation, in the specific context of low-income/developing countries. It aims to inform policymakers on how changes in prices, technology, food and agricultural policies might affect the viability, poverty and food security of heterogeneous sets of farm households that characterize the agricultural sector, which types of farm households will be most affected, where these most-affected farms are located, etc. The report provides a detailed description of the FSSIM-Dev model in terms of design, mathematical structure, data preparation, calibration process, and modelling of household (market) decisions. The rationale, theoretical background, technical specification and main indicators that can be generated from this model are also presented and discussed. The report also presents a comprehensive summary of results from the application of FSSIM-Dev to three countries: Ethiopia, Niger and Tanzania. Data from the World Bank Living Standards Measurement Study – Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS–ISA) ( ), which provide a national representative survey of the rural population with a focus on the farming sector, were used in these three country case studies.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Subvention des intrants agricoles au Sénegal

Ce rapport présente les résultats d’une évaluation ex-ante de plusieurs scénarios de ciblage des ménages agricoles pour le programme de subvention des engrais actuellement en place au Sénégal. Cette étude a été réalisée à l’aide du modèle de ménage agricole FSSIM-Dev calibré sur un échantillon de 2 278 ménages agricole issus de l’enquête ESPS-2. Les effets sur les assolements, l’utilisation de l’engrais, le revenu des ménages mais aussi sur le budget de l’Etat sont présentés et discutés.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Impacts ex-ante de la Petite Irrigation au Niger: Analyse des effets micro-économiques à l’aide d’un modèle de ménage agricole

Au Niger, un objectif important de la politique agricole consiste à promouvoir le développement de petites infrastructures d’irrigation afin de diversifier la production agricole, prolonger la saison de culture, augmenter la productivité des terres et sécuriser les revenus des agriculteurs. La petite irrigation est considéré comme une alternative possible aux grands aménagements collectifs car elle est moins coûteuse à mettre en œuvre et à entretenir et plus facile à gérer. Ce rapport présente les résultats d’une modélisation des impacts d’un programme de développement de systèmes d’irrigation de petite échelle au Niger, appelé la Stratégie pour la Petite Irrigation au Niger (SPIN), en termes d’utilisation des terres, de production agricole, de génération de revenus et de réduction de la pauvreté. Cette analyse a été conduite à l’aide du modèle FSSIM-DEV (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) et des données provenant d’un échantillon national représentatif de ménages agricoles. FSSIM-DEV est un modèle statique comparatif de programmation mathématique positive (PMP) adapté aux ménages producteurs – consommateurs et aux particularités de l'économie rurale Sub-Saharienne. Appliqué à chaque ménage agricole inclus dans un échantillon représentatif pour le Niger, il permet de saisir toute l'hétérogénéité des impacts d'un programme de développement tel que la SPIN. Les résultats de la modélisation montrent qu'une augmentation de 47 000 hectares soit 44% des surfaces irriguées en saison sèche, correspondant aux objectifs de la SPIN, apporterait des bénéfices significatifs aux ménages producteurs nigériens. Le revenu agricole moyen augmenterait de 12% et les inégalités de revenu des ménages en milieu rural diminueraient de près de 5 points de GINI, soit d'environ 9%. L'extension des surfaces irriguées engendrerait également un grand nombre de création d'emplois, ainsi qu'une diminution du taux de pauvreté rurale de plus d'un point (de 52,4% à 50,8%). Le coût d'un tel programme serait compris entre 47 et 189 milliards de CFA, à répartir entre producteurs et Etat. In Niger, one of the key objectives of agricultural policy is to promote the development of small-scale irrigation infrastructure in order to diversify agricultural production, extend the growing season, increase land productivity and secure farmers’ incomes. Small-scale irrigation is regarded as a possible alternative to large-scale collective schemes because it is cheaper to set up and maintain and easier to manage. This report presents the results of modelling the impacts of a small-scale irrigation development programme, known as the Stratégie pour la Petite Irrigation au Niger (Small-Scale Irrigation Strategy in Niger, or SPIN for its acronym in French), in terms of land use, agricultural production, income generation and poverty reduction. This analysis was conducted using the FSSIM-Dev (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) model and data obtained from a representative national sample of farm households. FSSIM-Dev is a comparative static model using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach tailored to producer-consumer households and to the particular aspects of the sub-Saharan rural economy. Applied to each farm household included in a representative sample for Niger, FSSIM-Dev allows for capturing all the heterogeneous impacts of a development programme such as the SPIN. The modelling results show that increasing the irrigated area in the dry season by 47,000 hectares, i.e. 44%, which is in line with the SPIN objectives, would bring significant benefits to Nigerien farm households. The average farm income would increase by 12% and income inequalities between households in rural areas would reduce by around five Gini points, i.e. approximately 9%. Increasing the irrigated area would also create many new jobs and reduce the rural poverty rate by more than one point (from 52.4% to 50.8%). The estimated cost of such a programme would be between 47 billion CFA francs and 189 billion CFA francs, to be split between farmers and the State.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Impacts of Small-Scale Irrigation in Niger: Ex-ante analysis of micro-economic effects using a farm household model

In Niger, one of the key objectives of agricultural policy is to promote the development of small-scale irrigation infrastructure in order to diversify agricultural production, extend the growing season, increase land productivity and secure farmers’ incomes. Small-scale irrigation is regarded as a possible alternative to large-scale collective schemes because it is cheaper to set up and maintain and easier to manage. This report presents the results of modelling the impacts of a small-scale irrigation development programme, known as the Stratégie pour la Petite Irrigation au Niger (Small-Scale Irrigation Strategy in Niger, or SPIN for its acronym in French), in terms of land use, agricultural production, income generation and poverty reduction. This analysis was conducted using the FSSIM-Dev (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) model and data obtained from a representative national sample of farm households. FSSIM-Dev is a comparative static model using a positive mathematical programming (PMP) approach tailored to producer-consumer households and to the particular aspects of the sub-Saharan rural economy. Applied to each farm household included in a representative sample for Niger, FSSIM-Dev allows for capturing all the heterogeneous impacts of a development programme such as the SPIN. The modelling results show that increasing the irrigated area in the dry season by 47,000 hectares, i.e. 44%, which is in line with the SPIN objectives, would bring significant benefits to Nigerien farm households. The average farm income would increase by 12% and income inequalities between households in rural areas would reduce by around five Gini points, i.e. approximately 9%. Increasing the irrigated area would also create many new jobs and reduce the rural poverty rate by more than one point (from 52.4% to 50.8%). The estimated cost of such a programme would be between 47 billion CFA francs and 189 billion CFA francs, to be split between farmers and the State.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

La culture attelée dans le bassin cotonnier en Côte d'Ivoire: Analyse et modélisation des impacts d'un programme de relance de la culture attelée

En Côte d'Ivoire, la situation du secteur cotonnier s'est considérablement aggravée après le déclenchement de la crise politique de Septembre 2002 suivi en 2004 par une importante chute du cours international du coton. Les planteurs ont progressivement abandonné la culture du coton et la production nationale a chuté des deux-tiers en huit ans. Cette situation a incité l'Union Européenne, à travers sa Délégation en Côte d'Ivoire, à soutenir la recapitalisation des producteurs via divers projets d'appui à la filière, notamment le "Projet de Relance de la Culture Attelée" (PRCA). A l'aide d'un outil de modélisation micro-économique du comportement des producteurs de coton et en utilisant les données d'une enquête réalisée en 2016 auprès de 1400 producteurs, ce rapport présente les résultats d'une évaluation des impacts de ce programme sur la superficie et la production de coton ainsi que sur la viabilité des exploitations cotonnières.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

Upscaling the productivity performance of the Agricultural Commercialization Cluster Initiative in Ethiopia

This report presents the results of an impact analysis of several scenarios related to the Agricultural Commercialization Cluster (ACC) initiative. This initiative was introduced by the Government of Ethiopia during the first Growth and Transformation Plan (2010-2015) as a mechanism to improve agricultural productivity and production within specific geographies by targeting a limited number of high-value commodities. The farm-household model FSSIM-Dev (Farm System Simulator for Developing Countries) is applied to a representative sample of 2,886 individual farm-households spread throughout the country, taken from the 2013/14 Ethiopia Socioeconomic Survey. Simulation results show that upscaling the ACC productivity performance to the respective regions would lead to an increase in production of the main products ranging between 1.8% and 62.6%, depending on scenario, region and commodity. The average (across all ACC scenarios considered) country-level production increase for wheat, teff, maize and barley are assessed to be 29.6%, 21.1%, 12.8% and 12.6%, respectively. These impacts are driven by the rise in land productivity, rather than area expansion (through putting fallow land into cultivation) and/or area reallocation. The increase in crop yields would also have a positive impact on both income and poverty level of farm households. The average increase in gross income at the country and individual farm-household levels are assessed to be around 14% and 9%, respectively. These impacts could be more pronounced for individual farms: for example, 85% of the farms would experience an increase in gross income of up to 17% to 32%, depending on the nature of scenarios considered. The largest income change occurs in farms specializing in field crops, and in medium-large farms (i.e. farms with total production value of larger than ETB 9,000). The increase in both production and income would also raise food consumption and improve nutritional indicators.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

An EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP)

This report presents the first EU-wide individual farm-level model (IFM-CAP) aiming to assess the impacts of CAP on farm economic and environmental performance. The rationale for such a farm-level model is based on the increasing demand for a micro-simulation tool able to model farm-specific policies and to capture farm heterogeneity across the EU in terms of policy representation and impacts. Based on positive mathematical programming, IFM-CAP seeks to improve the quality of policy assessment upon existing aggregate and aggregated farm-group models and to assess distributional effects over the EU farm population. To guarantee the highest representativeness of the EU agricultural sector, the model is applied to every EU-FADN (Farm Accountancy Data Network) individual farm (around 60 500 farms). The report provides a detailed description of the IFM-CAP model prototype in terms of design, mathematical structure, data preparation, modelling livestock activities, allocation of input costs and the calibration process. The theoretical background, the technical specification and the outputs that can be generated from this prototype are also briefly presented and discussed. The report also presents an application of the model to the assessment of the effects of the crop diversification measure. The results show that most non-compliant farms (80 %) chose to reduce their level of non-compliance following the introduction of the diversification measure owing to the sizable subsidy reduction imposed. However, the overall impact on farm income is rather limited: farm income decreases by less than 1 % at EU level, and only 5 % of the farm population will be negatively affected. Nevertheless, for a small number of farms, the income effect could be more substantial (more than –10 %).JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

L'agriculture de la Côte d'Ivoire à la loupe: Etat des lieux des filières de production végétales et animales et revue des politiques agricoles

The agricultural sector occupies a central place in Côte d’Ivoire’s economy and development. This report provides a unique and detailed description of the state of the Ivorian agricultural sector, including all agricultural value chains of the country. Agricultural, livestock and fishery productions are reviewed and their dynamics, opportunities and constraints are analysed. Finally, the report revises all agricultural policies and development programs implemented since the 1990s in Côte d’Ivoire as well as the future ones.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur

The EU-Wide Individual Farm Model for Common Agricultural Policy Analysis (IFM-CAP v.1): Economic Impacts of CAP Greening

This report presents the first EU-wide individual farm level model (IFM-CAP) aiming to assess the impacts of CAP towards 2020 on farm economics and environmental effects. The rationale for such a farm-level model is based on the increasing demand for a micro simulation tool capable to model farm-specific policies and to capture farm heterogeneity across the EU in terms of policy representation and impacts. Based on Positive Mathematical Programming, IFM-CAP seeks to improve the quality of policy assessment upon existing aggregate and aggregated farm-group models and to provide assessment of distributional effects over the EU farm population. To guarantee the highest representativeness of the EU agricultural sector, the model is applied to every EU-FADN (Farm Accountancy Data Network) individual farm (83292 farms). The report provides a detailed description of the first IFM-CAP model version (IFM-CAP V.1) in terms of design, mathematical structure, data preparation, modelling livestock activities, allocation of input costs, modelling of the CAP post-2013 and calibration process. The theoretical background, the technical specification and the outputs that can be generated from this model are also briefly presented and discussed. Model capability is illustrated in this study with an analysis of the EU farmers' responses to the greening requirements introduced by the 2013 CAP reform.JRC.D.4-Economics of Agricultur