15,915 research outputs found
The Future of Nuclear Energy: Facts and Fiction: An update using 2009/2010 Data
An update of our 2009 study, "The Future of Nuclear Energy, Facts and
Fiction" using the 2009 and the available 2010 data, including a critical look
at the just published 2009 edition of the Red Book, is presented. Since January
2009, eight reactors with a capacity of 4.9 GWe have been connected to the
electric grid and four older reactors, with a combined capacity of 2.64 GWe
have been terminated. Furthermore, 27 reactor constructions, dominated by China
(18) and Russia (4), have been initiated.
The nuclear fission produced electric energy in 2009 followed the slow
decline, observed since 2007, with a total production of 2560 TWhe, 41 TWhe
(1.6%) less than in 2008 and roughly 100 TWhe less than in the record year
2006. The preliminary data from the first 10 months of 2010 in the OECD
countries indicate that nuclear power production in North-America remained at
the 2009 levels, while one observes a recovery in Europe with an increase of
2.5% and a strong rise of 5% in the OECD Asia-Pacific area compared to the same
period in 2009.
Worldwide uranium mining has increased during 2009 by about 7000 tons to
almost 51000 tons. Still roughly 18000 tons of the 2010 world uranium
requirements need to be provided from the civilian and military reserves.
Perhaps the most remarkable new data from the just published 2009 edition of
the Red Book, are that (1) the best understood RAR (reasonable assured) and IR
(inferred) resources, with a price tag of less than 40 US dollars/Kg, have been
inconsistently absorbed in the two to three times higher price categories and
(2) uranium mining in Kazakhstan is presented with a short lifetime. The
presented mining capacity numbers indicate an uranium extraction peak of 28000
tons during the years 2015-2020, from which it will decline quickly to 14000
tons by 2025 and to only 5000-6000 tons by 2035.Comment: 29 pages including 3 pages of reference
The End of Cheap Uranium
Historic data from many countries demonstrate that on average no more than
50-70% of the uranium in a deposit could be mined. An analysis of more recent
data from Canada and Australia leads to a mining model with an average deposit
extraction lifetime of 10+- 2 years. This simple model provides an accurate
description of the extractable amount of uranium for the recent mining
operations.
Using this model for all larger existing and planned uranium mines up to
2030, a global uranium mining peak of at most 58 +- 4 ktons around the year
2015 is obtained. Thereafter we predict that uranium mine production will
decline to at most 54 +- 5 ktons by 2025 and, with the decline steepening, to
at most 41 +- 5 ktons around 2030. This amount will not be sufficient to fuel
the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next 10-20 years. In
fact, we find that it will be difficult to avoid supply shortages even under a
slow 1%/year worldwide nuclear energy phase-out scenario up to 2025. We thus
suggest that a worldwide nuclear energy phase-out is in order.
If such a slow global phase-out is not voluntarily effected, the end of the
present cheap uranium supply situation will be unavoidable. The result will be
that some countries will simply be unable to afford sufficient uranium fuel at
that point, which implies involuntary and perhaps chaotic nuclear phase-outs in
those countries involving brownouts, blackouts, and worse.Comment: 13 pages, extended version of the contributed paper to the World
Resource Forum 2011 in Davo
Development Towards Sustainability: How to judge past and proposed policies?
The scientific data about the state of our planet, presented at the 2012
(Rio+20) summit, documented that today's human family lives even less
sustainably than it did in 1992. The data indicate furthermore that the
environmental impacts from our current economic activities are so large, that
we are approaching situations where potentially controllable regional problems
can easily lead to uncontrollable global disasters.
Assuming that (1) the majority of the human family, once adequately informed,
wants to achieve a "sustainable way of life" and (2) that the "development
towards sustainability" roadmap will be based on scientific principles, one
must begin with unambiguous and quantifiable definitions of these goals. As
will be demonstrated, the well known scientific method to define abstract and
complex issues by their negation, satisfies these requirements. Following this
new approach, it also becomes possible to decide if proposed and actual
policies changes will make our way of life less unsustainable, and thus move us
potentially into the direction of sustainability. Furthermore, if potentially
dangerous tipping points are to be avoided, the transition roadmap must include
some minimal speed requirements. Combining the negation method and the time
evolution of that remaining natural capital in different domains, the
transition speed for a "development towards sustainability" can be quantified
at local, regional and global scales.
The presented ideas allow us to measure the rate of natural capital depletion
and the rate of restoration that will be required if humanity is to avoid
reaching a sustainable future by a collapse transition.Comment: 13 pages, 2 figures, Paper presented at the 2013 World Resource Forum
in Davos, Switzerland. Keywords: Natural Capital, IPAT equation,
unsustainable living, development towards sustainabilit
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