Quantifying overheating risk in English schools: A spatially coherent climate risk assessment

Climate adaptation decision making can be informed by a quantification of current and future climate risk. This is important for understanding which populations and/or infrastructures are most at risk in order to prioritise adaptation action. When assessing the risk of overheating in buildings, many studies use advanced building models to comprehensively represent the vulnerability of the building to overheating, but often use a limited representation of the meteorological (hazard) information which does not vary realistically in space. An alternative approach for quantifying risk is to use a spatial risk assessment framework which combines information about hazard, exposure and vulnerability to estimate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for risk to be compared across different locations. Here we present a novel application of an open-source CLIMADA-based spatial risk assessment framework to an ensemble of climate projections to assess overheating risk in ∼20,000 schools in England. In doing so, we demonstrate an approach for bringing together the advantages of open-source spatial risk assessment frameworks, data science techniques, and physics-based building models to assess climate risk in a spatially consistent way, allowing for the prioritisation of adaptation action in this vulnerable young population. Specifically, we assess the expected number of days each school overheats (internal operative temperature exceeds a high threshold) in a school-year based on three global warming levels (recent past, 2 °C and 4 °C warmer than pre-industrial). Our results indicate an increase in this risk in future warmer climates, with the relative frequency of overheating at internal temperatures in excess of 35 °C increasing more than at 26 °C. Indeed, this novel demonstration of the approach indicates that the most at-risk schools could experience up to 15 school days of internal temperature in excess of 35 °C in an average year if the climate warms to 2 °C above pre-industrial. Finally, we demonstrate how the spatial consistency in the output risk could enable the prioritisation of high risk schools for adaptation action

Leg disorders in broiler chickens : prevalence, risk factors and prevention

Broiler (meat) chickens have been subjected to intense genetic selection. In the past 50 years, broiler growth rates have increased by over 300% (from 25 g per day to 100 g per day). There is growing societal concern that many broiler chickens have impaired locomotion or are even unable to walk. Here we present the results of a comprehensive survey of commercial flocks which quantifies the risk factors for poor locomotion in broiler chickens.We assessed the walking ability of 51,000 birds, representing 4.8 million birds within 176 flocks.We also obtained information on approximately 150 different management factors associated with each flock. At a mean age of 40 days, over 27.6% of birds in our study showed poor locomotion and 3.3% were almost unable to walk. The high prevalence of poor locomotion occurred despite culling policies designed to remove severely lame birds from flocks. We show that the primary risk factors associated with impaired locomotion and poor leg health are those specifically associated with rate of growth. Factors significantly associated with high gait score included the age of the bird (older birds), visit (second visit to same flock), bird genotype, not feeding whole wheat, a shorter dark period during the day, higher stocking density at the time of assessment, no use of antibiotic, and the use of intact feed pellets. The welfare implications are profound. Worldwide approximately 261010 broilers are reared within similar husbandry systems.We identify a range of management factors that could be altered to reduce leg health problems, but implementation of these changes would be likely to reduce growth rate and production. A debate on the sustainability of current practice in the production of this important food source is required

Deciphering coral disease dynamics: integrating host, microbiome, and the changing environment

Diseases of tropical reef organisms is an intensive area of study, but despite significant advances in methodology and the global knowledge base, identifying the proximate causes of disease outbreaks remains difficult. The dynamics of infectious wildlife diseases are known to be influenced by shifting interactions among the host, pathogen, and other members of the microbiome, and a collective body of work clearly demonstrates that this is also the case for the main foundation species on reefs, corals. Yet, among wildlife, outbreaks of coral diseases stand out as being driven largely by a changing environment. These outbreaks contributed not only to significant losses of coral species but also to whole ecosystem regime shifts. Here we suggest that to better decipher the disease dynamics of corals, we must integrate more holistic and modern paradigms that consider multiple and variable interactions among the three major players in epizootics: the host, its associated microbiome, and the environment. In this perspective, we discuss how expanding the pathogen component of the classic host-pathogen-environment disease triad to incorporate shifts in the microbiome leading to dysbiosis provides a better model for understanding coral disease dynamics. We outline and discuss issues arising when evaluating each component of this trio and make suggestions for bridging gaps between them. We further suggest that to best tackle these challenges, researchers must adjust standard paradigms, like the classic one pathogen-one disease model, that, to date, have been ineffectual at uncovering many of the emergent properties of coral reef disease dynamics. Lastly, we make recommendations for ways forward in the fields of marine disease ecology and the future of coral reef conservation and restoration given these observations

A collaborative hackathon to investigate climate change and extreme weather impacts in justice and insurance settings

By bringing together a large group of participants with diverse skillsets, hackathons aim to make good headway into a particular research topic over a short period of time. This collaborative approach supports relationship building, cross team working and the development of technical skills across different areas

Balancing Selection at the Tomato RCR3 Guardee Gene Family Maintains Variation in Strength of Pathogen Defense

Coevolution between hosts and pathogens is thought to occur between interacting molecules of both species. This results in the maintenance of genetic diversity at pathogen antigens (or so-called effectors) and host resistance genes such as the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) in mammals or resistance (R) genes in plants. In plant-pathogen interactions, the current paradigm posits that a specific defense response is activated upon recognition of pathogen effectors via interaction with their corresponding R proteins. According to the''Guard-Hypothesis,'' R proteins (the ``guards'') can sense modification of target molecules in the host (the ``guardees'') by pathogen effectors and subsequently trigger the defense response. Multiple studies have reported high genetic diversity at R genes maintained by balancing selection. In contrast, little is known about the evolutionary mechanisms shaping the guardee, which may be subject to contrasting evolutionary forces. Here we show that the evolution of the guardee RCR3 is characterized by gene duplication, frequent gene conversion, and balancing selection in the wild tomato species Solanum peruvianum. Investigating the functional characteristics of 54 natural variants through in vitro and in planta assays, we detected differences in recognition of the pathogen effector through interaction with the guardee, as well as substantial variation in the strength of the defense response. This variation is maintained by balancing selection at each copy of the RCR3 gene. Our analyses pinpoint three amino acid polymorphisms with key functional consequences for the coevolution between the guardee (RCR3) and its guard (Cf-2). We conclude that, in addition to coevolution at the ``guardee-effector'' interface for pathogen recognition, natural selection acts on the ``guard-guardee'' interface. Guardee evolution may be governed by a counterbalance between improved activation in the presence and prevention of auto-immune responses in the absence of the corresponding pathogen

The collective impact of rare diseases in Western Australia: an estimate using a population-based cohort.

PURPOSE: It has been argued that rare diseases should be recognized as a public health priority. However, there is a shortage of epidemiological data describing the true burden of rare diseases. This study investigated hospital service use to provide a better understanding of the collective health and economic impacts of rare diseases. METHODS: Novel methodology was developed using a carefully constructed set of diagnostic codes, a selection of rare disease cohorts from hospital administrative data, and advanced data-linkage technologies. Outcomes included health-service use and hospital admission costs. RESULTS: In 2010, cohort members who were alive represented approximately 2.0% of the Western Australian population. The cohort accounted for 4.6% of people discharged from hospital and 9.9% of hospital discharges, and it had a greater average length of stay than the general population. The total cost of hospital discharges for the cohort represented 10.5% of 2010 state inpatient hospital costs. CONCLUSIONS: This population-based cohort study provides strong new evidence of a marked disparity between the proportion of the population with rare diseases and their combined health-system costs. The methodology will inform future rare-disease studies, and the evidence will guide government strategies for managing the service needs of people living with rare diseases.Genet Med advance online publication 22 September 2016Genetics in Medicine (2016); doi:10.1038/gim.2016.143

Hereditary alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency and its clinical consequences

Alpha-1-antitrypsin deficiency (AATD) is a genetic disorder that manifests as pulmonary emphysema, liver cirrhosis and, rarely, as the skin disease panniculitis, and is characterized by low serum levels of AAT, the main protease inhibitor (PI) in human serum. The prevalence in Western Europe and in the USA is estimated at approximately 1 in 2,500 and 1 : 5,000 newborns, and is highly dependent on the Scandinavian descent within the population. The most common deficiency alleles in North Europe are PI Z and PI S, and the majority of individuals with severe AATD are PI type ZZ. The clinical manifestations may widely vary between patients, ranging from asymptomatic in some to fatal liver or lung disease in others. Type ZZ and SZ AATD are risk factors for the development of respiratory symptoms (dyspnoea, coughing), early onset emphysema, and airflow obstruction early in adult life. Environmental factors such as cigarette smoking, and dust exposure are additional risk factors and have been linked to an accelerated progression of this condition. Type ZZ AATD may also lead to the development of acute or chronic liver disease in childhood or adulthood: prolonged jaundice after birth with conjugated hyperbilirubinemia and abnormal liver enzymes are characteristic clinical signs. Cirrhotic liver failure may occur around age 50. In very rare cases, necrotizing panniculitis and secondary vasculitis may occur. AATD is caused by mutations in the SERPINA1 gene encoding AAT, and is inherited as an autosomal recessive trait. The diagnosis can be established by detection of low serum levels of AAT and isoelectric focusing. Differential diagnoses should exclude bleeding disorders or jaundice, viral infection, hemochromatosis, Wilson's disease and autoimmune hepatitis. For treatment of lung disease, intravenous alpha-1-antitrypsin augmentation therapy, annual flu vaccination and a pneumococcal vaccine every 5 years are recommended. Relief of breathlessness may be obtained with long-acting bronchodilators and inhaled corticosteroids. The end-stage liver and lung disease can be treated by organ transplantation. In AATD patients with cirrhosis, prognosis is generally grave

Pre-weaning environmental enrichment increases piglets' object play behaviour on a large scale commercial pig farm

Environmental enrichment is a legal requirement for European pig farms. The suitability of enrichment materials for neonatal pigs is understudied and has not been tested in commercial settings. This study investigates the effect of hanging objects and substrate as two enrichment strategies pre-weaning, and compares the effect of these enrichment objects on play behaviour, aggression, growth and stress coping ability during lactation until 10 days after weaning. Farrowing crates were equipped with either six hanging objects (OB), a substrate box with wood bark (SUB), or nothing (control; CON). The behaviour of over 600 piglets (∼210 piglets/treatment) was recorded weekly by instantaneous scan sampling (10 seconds/piglet, repeated 6 times per day for 6 days). Aggression was monitored through skin lesions on focal piglets on 1 day before weaning and 1 and 2 days after weaning. Piglets were weighed individually every week. Stress coping ability was assessed through salivary cortisol from a sample of six piglets per litter on 1 day before (baseline), and on days 1 and 2 after weaning. Both enrichment groups showed more object play during lactation as compared to the control group (P < 0.001). The amount of object play increased linearly with age (P < 0.001). Enrichment did not affect social play or locomotor play during lactation. Enrichment did not influence the amount of skin lesions before weaning, but heavier piglets had more skin lesions (P < 0.01). The enrichment strategies had no influence on weight gain at any stage. The baseline of the salivary cortisol concentration was similar amongst the treatment groups; however, the cortisol concentration of the object group and control group was significantly higher at one day after weaning than at baseline (P < 0.001) whereas the substrate group showed no significant increase. In conclusion, providing either hanging objects or substrate alone could encourage neonatal piglets to express more object play behaviour. Compared to the hanging objects, providing substrate in the commercial neonatal environment demonstrated to decrease piglets’ stress at weaning, and therefore increase animal welfare

Pig farmers’ willingness to pay for management strategies to reduce aggression between pigs

When deciding whether to invest in an improvement to animal welfare, farmers must trade-off the relative costs and benefits. Despite the existence of effective solutions to many animal welfare issues, farmers’ willingness to pay for them is largely unknown. This study modelled pig farmers’ decisions to improve animal welfare using a discrete choice experiment focused on alleviating aggression between growing/finishing pigs at regrouping. Eighty-two UK and Irish pig farm owners and managers were asked to choose between hypothetical aggression control strategies described in terms of four attributes; installation cost, on-going cost, impact on skin lesions from aggression and impact on growth rate. If they did not like any of the strategies they could opt to keep their current farm practice. Systematic variations in product attributes allowed farmers’ preferences and willingness to pay to be estimated and latent class modelling accounted for heterogeneity in responses. The overall willingness to pay to reduce lesions was low at £0.06 per pig place (installation cost) and £0.01 per pig produced (running cost) for each 1% reduction in lesions. Results revealed three independent classes of farmers. Farmers in Class 1 were unlikely to regroup unfamiliar growing/finishing pigs, and thus were unwilling to adopt measures to reduce aggression at regrouping. Farmers in Classes 2 and 3 were willing to adopt measures providing certain pre-conditions were met. Farmers in Class 2 were motivated mainly by business goals, whilst farmers in Class 3 were motivated by both business and animal welfare goals, and were willing to pay the most to reduce aggression; £0.11 per pig place and £0.03 per pig produced for each 1% reduction in lesions. Farmers should not be considered a homogeneous group regarding the adoption of animal welfare innovations. Instead, campaigns should be targeted at subgroups according to their independent preferences and willingness to pay

Self-Management education for adults with poorly controlled epILEpsy (SMILE (UK)): a randomised controlled trial protocol

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment Programme; reference 09/165/01