Using of Binominal Method for the Purpose of Determination of Confidence Intervals for Prediction of Invasive Ductal Breast Carcinoma Metastases

The study was performed using surgical and biopsy material based on histopathological study, which was conducted at the Chernivtsy Regional Clinical Oncology Centre. In the cases of verified diagnosis of ductal breast carcinoma was studied the size of the primary tumour node and metastasis in lymphogenous features of regional lymph node according to classification system TNM. All cases were divided by categories T and N. Using statistical data was conducted the analysis in patients of verified diagnosis of ductal breast carcinoma in Chernivtsy region. We determined the features of metastasis to regional lymph nodes under according to the classification pTNM and confidence intervals calculated according to percent binomial method with p=0.05. After receiving the results the data were compared to predict metastasis. Using statistical data were conducted the analysis in women of Chernivtsi region with verified diagnosis of ductal breast cancer. We determined the features of metastasis classification according pTNM and confidence intervals of percent according to binominal method with p=0.05. All observations of histopathological conclusions were conducted on the basis of Chernivtsy Regional Clinical Oncology Centre

Histochemical evaluation of protein oxidative modification in fibrinoid of the placenta, depending on calcium deposits, combined with iron deficiency anemia of pregnancy

Introduction. Both calcium and iron significantly affect the level of free radical processes. The aim of the study was to determine the levels of protein oxidative modification in fibrinoid of placenta of different localization areas, depending on the variants of calcium deposits, based on histochemical methods of bromophenol blue staining of proteins into „acidic“ and „basic“ by Mikel Calvo with quantitative assessment of results by means of computed microspectrophotometry. Materials and methods. 164 cases of placental calcification, including 84 cases of iron deficiency anemia in pregnancy (IDAP) and 80 cases of pregnancy without anemia, were studied. Histochemical method of bromophenol blue into „acidic“ and „basic“ proteins by Mikel Calvo with the quantitative assessment of the staining results was performed by use of computed microspectrophotometry on the digital copy of the image with the fibrinoid areas in the computed program „ImageJ“. Results. The differences between the average indicator R/B, which is the measure of protein oxidative modification, were discovered both in fibrinoid as a part of the chorionic tree and in the basal plate of the placenta in particular types of calcium deposits. Conclusion. According to the histochemical study, pregnancies with iron deficiency anemia were characterized by fibrinoid with deposits of calcium type II and type IV (fine-granular deposits) both in chorial tree and in the basal plate of the placenta, where the protein oxidative modification processes increase compared to those without anemia

Development of the Procedure for Integrated Application of Scenario Prediction Methods

The paper proposes a procedure for the integrated application of methods for scenario analysis and prediction, represented by graphs of the «tree» type. The task on analysis of risks in software projects has been considered, the cause of which are the possible programming errors that lead to failures in the operation of systems and software. The joint use of a failure tree and a probability tree makes it possible to generate the sequences of scripts for the implementation of an adverse event, whose main cause is possible defects or errors in software or data, as well as to assess the probabilities of their realization. Such an approach allows the identification of the overall result of the influence of certain risk-forming factors (defects) on the development of possible negative consequences (failures and malfunctions) or damage to the operation of complex software systems. This makes it possible to timely identify and propose effective mechanisms to manage software risk in order to reduce and eliminate them.A procedure has been proposed for aggregating individual probabilistic expert assessments of the occurrence of a risk event. Such an approach makes it possible to obtain group expert estimates assessing the feasibility of a risk event based on the constructed system of random events into a generalized expert assessment. The probabilities of the occurrence of a risk event, thus obtained, are used when constructing a probability tree and calculating the ratios of probabilistic inference using it. Aggregation of individual expert estimates is carried out by combining them based on a mathematical apparatus of the theory of evidence and the theory of plausible and paradoxical reasoning. It was established that in order to improve quality of the results of combining it is appropriate to establish an order for combining expert evidence and apply one of the rules of conflict redistribution as a combination rule.Numerical calculations of the proposed procedure for integrated application of a failure tree and a probability tree are provided. The results obtained make it possible to run a more in-depth analysis of the examined software systems and objects, and are aimed at improving the quality and effectiveness of managing risks in software projects caused by defects in programs and dat

ФОРСАЙТ-дослідження у завданнях вибору складу ВМС України на основі методу аналізу ієрархій

Фаріонова, Т. А. ФОРСАЙТ-дослідження у завданнях вибору складу ВМС України на основі методу аналізу ієрархій = FORESIGHT research in the problems of choosing the composition of the Ukrainian Navy based on the method of analysis of hierarchies / Т. А. Фаріонова, І. І. Коваленко, А. В. Швед, Є. О. Давиденко // Зб. наук. пр. НУК. – Миколаїв : НУК, 2021. – № 3 (486). – С. 48–57.Найважливішою функцією діяльності будь-якої держави є зміцнення військової безпеки, яка визначається станом обороноздатності країни та її можливістю забезпечити захист національних інтересів засобами збройної боротьби. У зв’язку з цим оборонне будівництво виступає важливим компонентом військової безпеки країни і характеризується цілою низкою факторів, які складаються з кількісних та якісних параметрів військово-морських сил. Особливістю ФОРСАЙТ-технологій як інструменту для вирішення завдань прогнозування є використання методів, що мають не кількісний, а якісний характер. Кількість публікацій, присвячених питанням застосування ФОРСАЙТ-технологій в оборонній сфері, невелика, їх зміст обмежений переважно загальним описом можливостей таких технологій, без детального розгляду конкретних прикладів. Метою роботи є аналіз використання ФОРСАЙТ-технологій для вирішення завдань вибору складу ВМС України за допомогою методу аналізу ієрархій. Серед методів багатокритеріального аналізу сценаріїв найбільш широке застосування в ФОРСАЙТ-технологіях отримали метод аналізу ієрархій і метод аналітичних мереж, розроблені Т. Сааті. Авторами на основі "Стратегії Військово-морських сил Збройних сил України-2035", сучасних концепцій відродження флоту, складу катерів і кораблів ВМС України, їх технічних характеристик було побудовано чотири трирівневі ієрархії (за кількістю таких факторів, як ВИГОДИ, МОЖЛИВОСТІ, ВИТРАТИ, РИЗИКИ). Альтернативою (А) стали типи катерів і кораблів: А1 – річковий броньований катер "Гюрза", А2 – десантно-штурмовий катер "Кентавр", А3 – малий патрульний катер "Island", А4 – швидкохідний патрульний катер "Лань", А5 – ракетний катер "Веспа", А6 – багатоцільовий корвет "Гайдук", А7 – малий корвет "Каракал". З огляду на проведений аналіз визначено пріоритети (типи катерів і кораблів), що вказують на домінування альтернатив: А5 – ракетний катер "Веспа", А6 й А7 – корвети "Гайдук" і "Каракал". Отже, доходимо висновку, що відроджуваний флот повинен мати у своєму складі як катери, так і корвети, що забезпечить найбільш ефективне вирішення завдань обороноздатності морських кордонів. Наукова новизна отриманих результатів полягає в тому, що вперше для вирішення завдання подальшого розвитку ВМС України використано підхід на основі ФОРСАЙТ-технологій. Практична значущість таких результатів полягає в тому, що запропонований підхід може бути використаний для вирішення завдань оборонного будівництва в умовах наявних слабо структурованих проблем та невизначеностей.The most important function of any state is to strengthen military security, which is determined by the state of the country’s defense capabilities and its ability to ensure the protection of national interests by means of armed struggle. In this regard, defense construction is an important component of the country’s military security is determined by a number of factors, which include both quantitative and qualitative parameters of the navy. A feature of FORSIGHT technologies as a tool to solve forecasting problems is the use of methods that are not quantitative but qualitative. The number of publications on the application of FORSIGHT technologies in the field of defense is small and their content is limited mainly by a general description of the capabilities of such technologies without detailed consideration of specific examples. The purpose of this work is to consider the use of FORSIGHT technologies to solve the problem of selecting the composition of the Ukrainian Navy using the method of analysis of hierarchies. Among the methods of multicriteria scenario analysis, the most widely used in FORSIGHT technologies were the method of hierarchy analysis and the method of analytical networks, developed by T. Saati. The authors based on the "Strategy of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine 2035", modern concepts of revival of the fleet, the composition of boats and ships of the Ukrainian Navy, their technical characteristics, built four three-level hierarchies (by the number of factors BENEFITS, OPPORTUNITIES, COSTS). As alternatives (A) were the types of boats and ships: A1 – river armored boat "Gyurza", A2 – assault boat "Centaur", A3 – small patrol boat "Island", A4 – high-speed patrol boat "Lan", A5 – rocket boat "Vespa", A6 – multi-purpose corvette "Gaiduk", A7 – small corvette "Caracal". Based on the analysis, priorities were obtained (types of boats and ships), indicating the dominance of alternatives: A5 – rocket boat "Vespa", A6 and A7 – corvettes "Gaiduk" and “Caracal”. This in turn leads to the conclusion that the revived fleet should include both boats and corvettes, which will provide the most effective solution to the problems of defense of maritime borders. The scientific novelty of the obtained results is that for the first time an approach based on FORSIGHT technologies was used to solve the problem of further development of the Ukrainian Navy. The practical significance of the obtained results is that the proposed approach can be used to solve the problems of defense construction in the conditions of existing poorly structured problems and uncertainties