An Improved Annual Chronology of U.S. Business Cycles since the 1790's

The NBER's pre-WWI chronology of annual peaks and troughs has the remarkable implication that the U.S. economy spent nearly every other year in recession, although previous research has argued that the post-Civil War dates are flawed. This paper extends that research by redating annual peaks and troughs for the entire 1796-1914 period using a single metric: Davis' (2004) annual industrial production index. The new pre-WWI chronology alters more than 40% of the peak and troughs, and removes cycles long considered the most questionable. An important implication of the new chronology is the lack of discernible differences in the frequency and duration of industrial cycles among the pre-Civil War, Civil War to WWI, and post-WWII periods. Of course, my comparison between pre-WWI and post-WWII cycles is limited by its reliance on a single annual index (as opposed to many monthly series) that is less comprehensive than GDP.

Glow in the Dark Matter: Observing galactic halos with scattered light

We consider the observation of diffuse halos of light around the discs of spiral galaxies, as a probe of the interaction cross section between Dark Matter and photons. Using the galaxy M101 as an example, we show that for a scattering cross section at the level of 10^(-23) x (m/GeV) cm^2 or greater Dark Matter in the halo will scatter light out from the more luminous centre of the disc to larger radii, contributing to an effective increased surface brightness at the edges of the observed area on the sky. This allows us to set an upper limit on the DM-photon cross section using data from the Dragonfly instrument. We then show how to improve this constraint, and the potential for discovery, by combining the radial profile of DM-photon scattering with measurements at multiple wavelengths. Observation of diffuse light presents a new and potentially powerful way to probe the interactions of Dark Matter with photons, which is complimentary to existing searches.Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures: v2 matches version accepted to PRL, with an extended discussion of potential background

Primary Sector Shocks and Early American Industrialization

Primary Sector Shocks and Early American Industrialization Recent advances in the measurement of US manufacturing activity over the long nineteenth century have opened up new possibilities for exploring the dynamics of American economic growth. Building on the pioneering work of J. Davis (2003) which assembled a new annual dataset on industrial production from 1790-1915, this paper uses VAR techniques to investigate the impact of shocks (both real and in terms-of-trades) in the primary product sector on fluctuations of manufacturing activity over early U.S. business cycles. This analysis tests the conventional hypothesis (reflected in the work of D. North) asserting changing export demand for primary products was the dominant force driving economic fluctuations during America?s industrial revolution. This analysis is of further interest because during this period when agriculture represented a large share of the economy, episodes of technological regression (due, for example, to adverse weather shocks or to outbreaks of productivity-sapping pests and diseases) could plausibly have significant effects on aggregate economic performance. In addition, this investigation sheds light on the long-standing debate about whether agricultural and manufacturing growth were competing (as historically B. Franklin asserted) or complementary (as A. Hamilton and recently D. Meyer have argued). Finally by comparing the structural relationships across the antebellum and post-bellum periods, this research contributes to the literature treating the Civil War as a break in the volatility of the US macro-economy.Industrialization, economic history

The Antebellum U.S. Iron Industry: Domestic Production and Foreign Competition

This paper presents new annual estimates of U.S. production of pig iron and imports of pig iron products dating back to 1827. These estimates are used to assess the vulnerability of the antebellum iron industry to foreign competition and the role of the tariff in fostering the industry's early development. Domestic pig iron production is found to be highly sensitive to changes in import prices. Although import price fluctuations had a much greater impact on U.S. production than changes in import duties, our estimates suggest that the tariff permitted domestic output to be about thirty to forty percent larger than it would have been without protection.

Panel Estimation of the Impact of Uncertainty on Investment in the Industrial Countries

There is growing interest in economic uncertainty and its long run impact on investment. In previous work the authors established clear evidence of the negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on investment in the G7, measured using a GARCH approach, and Pooled Mean Group Panel Estimation. In this paper we assess the impact on investment of temporary and permanent components of exchange rate uncertainty derived using a components GARCH model. For a poolable subsample of EU countries, results suggest that it is the transitory and not the permanent component which adversely affects investment.investment, uncertainty, exchange rates, non stationary panel estimation