Simulated outbreak frequency of WNV into the mosquito population during the summer season.

Simulated outbreak frequency of WNV into the mosquito population during the summer season.</p

Total number of analysed mosquito pools for each year and cluster.

Total number of analysed mosquito pools for each year and cluster.</p

Ranges of <i>R</i>₀ estimates. <i>R</i>₀ values were calculated at 2.5% and 97.5% percentile of parameter estimates for each considered parameter, while others were assumed equal to their estimated average.

Ranges of R0 estimates. R0 values were calculated at 2.5% and 97.5% percentile of parameter estimates for each considered parameter, while others were assumed equal to their estimated average.</p

Outbreak frequency as a function of temperature (10–30°C) and different vector-host ratios.

Outbreak frequency as a function of temperature (10–30°C) and different vector-host ratios.</p

Schematic representation of the computational framework.

Yellow squares: entomological and epidemiological models; grey circles: base model output; purple circle: sensitivity analysis output.</p

WNV outbreak frequency in the mosquito population according to parameters variability.

WNV outbreak frequency in the mosquito population during the summer season depended on the variation in A) fraction of bites on competent birds (f); B) bird competence (p); C) bird susceptibility (pMB) and D) duration of infectious period in birds (νB) estimates. The solid red line represents the outbreak frequency estimated using the mean value of the parameters’ posterior distributions. The red-shaded area shows the outbreak frequency obtained assuming all free parameters but one (allowed to range in the 95%CI) equal to their average.</p

Recorded average entomological captures for each year and cluster.

Recorded average entomological captures for each year and cluster.</p

Effect of different changes in model parameters on the R_t ratio.

Effect of A) fraction of bites on competent birds (f); B) bird competence (p); C) bird susceptibility to infection (pMB); and D) duration of infectious period in birds (νB) on R0 in each sub-region and year of simulation (solid lines). Dotted lines represent the mean value of R0. The grey boxplot provided for each panel visualises the posterior distribution of the parameter investigated. The posterior distribution of parameters is visualised using the same y axis to compare the shown distributions.</p

Capture site division proposed for the Lombardy region.

Red quadrats represent the northern subregion, green quadrats represent the western subregion, and blue quadrats represent the eastern subregion. Black squares, circles and triangles represent mosquito capture sites for 2016, 2017 and 2018, respectively. This map was generated using R 4.1.2 (raster package, http://gadm.org source).</p

Total number of WNV-positive pools for each year and cluster.

Total number of WNV-positive pools for each year and cluster.</p