Equity Weighting and the Marginal Damage Costs of Climate Change

Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. The assumed scenario is important too, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. Because of this, variations in the assumed inequity aversion have little effect on the marginal damage cost in some scenarios, and a large effect in other scenarios.Marginal Damage Costs, Climate Change, Equity

Equity weighting and the marginal damage costs of climate change

Climate change would impact different countries differently, and different countries have different levels of development. Equity-weighted estimates of the (marginal) impact of greenhouse gas emissions reflect these differences. Equity-weighted estimates of the marginal damage cost of carbon dioxide emissions are substantially higher than estimates without equity-weights; equity-weights may also change the sign of the social cost estimates. Equity weights need to be normalised. Our estimates differ by two orders of magnitude depending on the region of normalisation. A discounting error of equity weighted social cost of carbon estimates in earlier work (Tol, Energy Journal, 1999), led to an error of a factor two. Equity-weighted estimates are sensitive to the resolution of the impact estimates. Depending on the assumed intra-regional income distribution, estimates may be more than twice as high if national rather than regional impacts are aggregated. The assumed scenario is important too, not only because different scenarios have different emissions and hence warming, but also because different scenarios have different income differences, different growth rates, and different vulnerabilities. Because of this, variations in the assumed inequity aversion have little effect on the marginal damage cost in some scenarios, and a large effect in other scenarios.marginal damage costs, climate change, equity

Reconstruction of the spatial dependency of dielectric and geometrical properties of adhesively bonded structures

An inverse problem motivated by the nondestructive testing of adhesively bonded structures used in the aircraft industry is studied. Using transmission line theory, a model is developed which, when supplied with electrical and geometrical parameters, accurately predicts the reflection coefficient associated with such structures. Particular attention is paid to modelling the connection between the structures and the equipment used to measure the reflection coefficient. The inverse problem is then studied and an optimization approach employed to recover these electrical and geometrical parameters from experimentally obtained data. In particular the approach focuses on the recovery of spatially varying geometrical parameters as this is paramount to the successful reconstruction of electrical parameters. Reconstructions of structure geometry using this method are found to be in close agreement with experimental observations

CHECKING THE PRICE TAG ON CATASTROPHE: THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON UNDER NON-LINEAR CLIMATE RESPONSE

Research into the social cost of carbon emissions — the marginal social damage from a ton of emitted carbon — has tended to focus on “best guess” scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high-damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of non-linear climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the thermohaline circulation; the dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above “best guess” levels. We find that incorporating these impacts can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of 20. Furthermore, our results suggest that the exclusive focus on thermohaline circulation collapse in the non-linear climate response literature is unwarranted, because other potential non-linear climate responses appear to be significantly more costly.climate change, catastrophe, non-linearity, impacts

Checking the price tag on catastrophe: The social cost of carbon under non-linear climate response. ESRI WP392, June 2011

Research into the social cost of carbon emissions — the marginal social damage from a tonne of emitted carbon — has tended to focus on “best guess” scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high- damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of low-probability, high-impact climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation; large scale dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above “best guess” levels. We find that incorporating these events can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of over 3

Checking the price tag on catastrophe: The social cost of carbon under non-linear climate response

Research into the social cost of carbon emissions - the marginal social damage from a tonne of emitted carbon - has tended to focus on best guess scenarios. Such scenarios generally ignore the potential for low-probability, high-damage events, which are critically important to determining optimal climate policy. This paper uses the FUND integrated assessment model to investigate the influence of three types of low-probability, high-impact climate responses on the social cost of carbon: the collapse of the Atlantic Ocean Meridional Overturning Circulation; large scale dissociation of oceanic methane hydrates; and climate sensitivities above best guess levels. We find that incorporating these events can increase the social cost of carbon by a factor of over 3

Treating and Preventing Influenza in Aged Care Facilities: A Cluster Randomised Controlled Trial

PMCID: PMC3474842This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

Computing and data processing

The applications of computers and data processing to astronomy are discussed. Among the topics covered are the emerging national information infrastructure, workstations and supercomputers, supertelescopes, digital astronomy, astrophysics in a numerical laboratory, community software, archiving of ground-based observations, dynamical simulations of complex systems, plasma astrophysics, and the remote control of fourth dimension supercomputers