Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches to extreme weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems are demonstrably able to simulate the detailed physics of the heatwave. Here, we leverage these systems to show that human influence on the climate made this event at least 8 [2–50] times more likely. At the current rate of global warming, the likelihood of such an event is doubling every 20 [10–50] years. Given the multi-decade lower-bound return-time implied by the length of the historical record, this rate of change in likelihood is highly relevant for decision makers. Further, forecast-based attribution can synthesise the conditional event-specific storyline and unconditional event-class probabilistic approaches to attribution. If developed as a routine service in forecasting centres, it could provide reliable estimates of human influence on extreme weather risk, which is critical to supporting effective adaptation planning

“Post-Decompressive Neuropathy”: New-Onset Post-Laminectomy Lower Extremity Neuropathic Pain Different from the Preoperative Complaint

Study Design Level III retrospective cross-sectional study. Purpose To define and characterize the presentation, symptom duration, and patient/surgical risk factors associated with ‘postdecompressive neuropathy (PDN).’ Overview of Literature PDN is characterized by lower extremity radicular pain that is ‘different’ from pre-surgical radiculopathy or claudication pain. Although it is a common constellation of postoperative symptoms, PDN is incompletely characterized and poorly understood. We hypothesize that PDN is caused by an intraoperative neuropraxic event and may develop early (within 30 days following the procedure) or late (after 30 days following the procedure) within the postoperative period. Methods Patients who consented to undergo lumbar laminectomy with or without an instrumented fusion for degenerative lumbar spine disease were followed up prospectively from July 2013 to December 2014. Relevant data were extracted from the charts of the eligible patients. Patient demographics and surgical factors were identified. Patients completed postoperative questionnaires 3 weeks, 3 months, 6 months, and 1 year postoperatively. Questions were designed to characterize the postoperative pain that differed from preoperative pain. A diagnosis of PDN was established if the patient exhibited the following characteristics: pain different from preoperative pain, leg pain worse than back pain, a non-dermatomal pain pattern, and nocturnal pain that often disrupted sleep. A Visual Analog Scale was used to monitor the pain, and patients documented the effectiveness of the prescribed pain management modalities. Patients for whom more than one follow-up survey was missed were excluded from analysis. Results Of the 164 eligible patients, 118 (72.0%) completed at least one follow-up survey at each time interval. Of these eligible patients, 91 (77.1%) described symptoms consistent with PDN. Additionally, 75 patients (82.4%) described early-onset symptoms, whereas 16 reported symptoms consistent with late-onset PDN. Significantly more female patients reported PDN symptoms (87% vs. 69%, p=0.03). Patients with both early and late development of PDN described their leg pain as an intermittent, constant, burning, sharp/stabbing, or dull ache. Early PDN was categorized more commonly as a dull ache than late-onset PDN (60% vs. 31%, p=0.052); however, the difference did not reach statistical significance. Opioids were significantly more effective for patients with early-onset PDN than for those with late-onset PDN (85% vs. 44%, p=0.001). Gabapentin was most commonly prescribed to patients who cited no resolution of symptoms (70% vs. 31%, p=0.003). Time to symptom resolution ranged from within 1 month to 1 year. Patients’ symptoms were considered unresolved if symptoms persisted for more than 1 year postoperatively. In total, 81% of the patients with early-onset PDN reported complete symptom resolution 1 year postoperatively compared with 63% of patients with late-onset PDN (p=0.11). Conclusions PDN is a discrete postoperative pain phenomenon that occurred in 77% of the patients who underwent lumbar laminectomy with or without instrumented fusion. Attention must be paid to the constellation and natural history of symptoms unique to PDN to effectively manage a self-limiting postoperative issue

Epidemiology and molecular phylogeny of Babesia sp. in Little Penguins Eudyptula minor in Australia

Blood parasites are potential threats to the health of penguins and to their conservation and management. Little penguins Eudyptula minor are native to Australia and New Zealand, and are susceptible to piroplasmids (Babesia), hemosporidians (Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, Plasmodium) and kinetoplastids (Trypanosoma). We studied a total of 263 wild little penguins at 20 sites along the Australian southeastern coast, in addition to 16 captive-bred little penguins. Babesia sp. was identified in seven wild little penguins, with positive individuals recorded in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania. True prevalence was estimated between 3.4% and 4.5%. Only round forms of the parasite were observed, and gene sequencing confirmed the identity of the parasite and demonstrated it is closely related to Babesia poelea from boobies (Sula spp.) and B. uriae from murres (Uria aalge). None of the Babesia-positive penguins presented signs of disease, confirming earlier suggestions that chronic infections by these parasites are not substantially problematic to otherwise healthy little penguins. We searched also for kinetoplastids, and despite targeted sampling of little penguins near the location where Trypanosoma eudyptulae was originally reported, this parasite was not detected

Single-cell integration reveals metaplasia in inflammatory gut diseases

The gastrointestinal tract is a multi-organ system crucial for efficient nutrient uptake and barrier immunity. Advances in genomics and a surge in gastrointestinal diseases1, 2 has fuelled efforts to catalogue cells constituting gastrointestinal tissues in health and disease3. Here we present systematic integration of 25 single-cell RNA sequencing datasets spanning the entire healthy gastrointestinal tract in development and in adulthood. We uniformly processed 385 samples from 189 healthy controls using a newly developed automated quality control approach (scAutoQC), leading to a healthy reference atlas with approximately 1.1 million cells and 136 fine-grained cell states. We anchor 12 gastrointestinal disease datasets spanning gastrointestinal cancers, coeliac disease, ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease to this reference. Utilizing this 1.6 million cell resource (gutcellatlas.org), we discover epithelial cell metaplasia originating from stem cells in intestinal inflammatory diseases with transcriptional similarity to cells found in pyloric and Brunner’s glands. Although previously linked to mucosal healing4, we now implicate pyloric gland metaplastic cells in inflammation through recruitment of immune cells including T cells and neutrophils. Overall, we describe inflammation-induced changes in stem cells that alter mucosal tissue architecture and promote further inflammation, a concept applicable to other tissues and diseases

Some considerations in the design and interpretation of antimalarial drug trials in uncomplicated falciparum malaria

BACKGROUND: Treatments for uncomplicated falciparum malaria should have high cure rates. The World Health Organization has recently set a target cure rate of 95% assessed at 28 days. The use of more effective drugs, with longer periods of patient follow-up, and parasite genotyping to distinguish recrudescence from reinfection raise issues related to the design and interpretation of antimalarial treatment trials in uncomplicated falciparum malaria which are discussed here. METHODS: The importance of adequate follow-up is presented and the advantages and disadvantages of non-inferiority trials are discussed. The different methods of interpreting trial results are described, and the difficulties created by loss to follow-up and missing or indeterminate genotyping results are reviewed. CONCLUSION: To characterize cure rates adequately assessment of antimalarial drug efficacy in uncomplicated malaria requires a minimum of 28 days and as much as 63 days follow-up after starting treatment. The longer the duration of follow-up in community-based assessments, the greater is the risk that this will be incomplete, and in endemic areas, the greater is the probability of reinfection. Recrudescence can be distinguished from reinfection using PCR genotyping but there are commonly missing or indeterminate results. There is no consensus on how these data should be analysed, and so a variety of approaches have been employed. It is argued that the correct approach to analysing antimalarial drug efficacy assessments is survival analysis, and patients with missing or indeterminate PCR results should either be censored from the analysis, or if there are sufficient data, results should be adjusted based on the identified ratio of new infections to recrudescences at the time of recurrent parasitaemia. Where the estimated cure rates with currently recommended treatments exceed 95%, individual comparisons with new regimens should generally be designed as non-inferiority trials with sample sizes sufficient to determine adequate precision of cure rate estimates (such that the lower 95% confidence interval bound exceeds 90%)

Palbociclib and fulvestrant act in synergy to modulate central carbon metabolism in breast cancer cells

The aims of this study were to determine whether combination chemotherapeutics exhibit a synergistic effect on breast cancer cell metabolism. Palbociclib, is a selective inhibitor of cyclin-dependent kinases 4 and 6, and when patients are treated in combination with fulvestrant, an estrogen receptor antagonist, they have improved progression-free survival. The mechanisms for this survival advantage are not known. Therefore, we analyzed metabolic and transcriptomic changes in MCF-7 cells following single and combination chemotherapy to determine whether selective metabolic pathways are targeted during these different modes of treatment. Individually, the drugs caused metabolic disruption to the same metabolic pathways, however fulvestrant additionally attenuated the pentose phosphate pathway and the production of important coenzymes. A comprehensive effect was observed when the drugs were applied together, confirming the combinatory therapy’s synergism in the cell model. This study also highlights the power of merging high-dimensional datasets to unravel mechanisms involved in cancer metabolism and therapy

Distinct Pathogenesis and Host Responses during Infection of C. elegans by P. aeruginosa and S. aureus

The genetically tractable model host Caenorhabditis elegans provides a valuable tool to dissect host-microbe interactions in vivo. Pseudomonas aeruginosa and Staphylococcus aureus utilize virulence factors involved in human disease to infect and kill C. elegans. Despite much progress, virtually nothing is known regarding the cytopathology of infection and the proximate causes of nematode death. Using light and electron microscopy, we found that P. aeruginosa infection entails intestinal distention, accumulation of an unidentified extracellular matrix and P. aeruginosa-synthesized outer membrane vesicles in the gut lumen and on the apical surface of intestinal cells, the appearance of abnormal autophagosomes inside intestinal cells, and P. aeruginosa intracellular invasion of C. elegans. Importantly, heat-killed P. aeruginosa fails to elicit a significant host response, suggesting that the C. elegans response to P. aeruginosa is activated either by heat-labile signals or pathogen-induced damage. In contrast, S. aureus infection causes enterocyte effacement, intestinal epithelium destruction, and complete degradation of internal organs. S. aureus activates a strong transcriptional response in C. elegans intestinal epithelial cells, which aids host survival during infection and shares elements with human innate responses. The C. elegans genes induced in response to S. aureus are mostly distinct from those induced by P. aeruginosa. In contrast to P. aeruginosa, heat-killed S. aureus activates a similar response as live S. aureus, which appears to be independent of the single C. elegans Toll-Like Receptor (TLR) protein. These data suggest that the host response to S. aureus is possibly mediated by pathogen-associated molecular patterns (PAMPs). Because our data suggest that neither the P. aeruginosa nor the S. aureus–triggered response requires canonical TLR signaling, they imply the existence of unidentified mechanisms for pathogen detection in C. elegans, with potentially conserved roles also in mammals

New paradigms for BRCA1/BRCA2 testing in women with ovarian cancer: results of the Genetic Testing in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer (GTEOC) study.

BACKGROUND: Over recent years genetic testing for germline mutations in BRCA1/BRCA2 has become more readily available because of technological advances and reducing costs. OBJECTIVE: To explore the feasibility and acceptability of offering genetic testing to all women recently diagnosed with epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). METHODS: Between 1 July 2013 and 30 June 2015 women newly diagnosed with EOC were recruited through six sites in East Anglia, UK into the Genetic Testing in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer (GTEOC) study. Eligibility was irrespective of patient age and family history of cancer. The psychosocial arm of the study used self-report, psychometrically validated questionnaires (Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS-21); Impact of Event Scale (IES)) and cost analysis was performed. RESULTS: 232 women were recruited and 18 mutations were detected (12 in BRCA1, 6 in BRCA2), giving a mutation yield of 8%, which increased to 12% in unselected women aged <70 years (17/146) but was only 1% in unselected women aged ≥70 years (1/86). IES and DASS-21 scores in response to genetic testing were significantly lower than equivalent scores in response to cancer diagnosis (p<0.001). Correlation tests indicated that although older age is a protective factor against any traumatic impacts of genetic testing, no significant correlation exists between age and distress outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: The mutation yield in unselected women diagnosed with EOC from a heterogeneous population with no founder mutations was 8% in all ages and 12% in women under 70. Unselected genetic testing in women with EOC was acceptable to patients and is potentially less resource-intensive than current standard practice.This work was supported by Target Ovarian Cancer grant number T005MT.This is the author accepted manuscript. It is currently under an indefinite embargo pending publication by the BMJ Group

Search for dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks in √s = 13 TeV pp collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for weakly interacting massive particle dark matter produced in association with bottom or top quarks is presented. Final states containing third-generation quarks and miss- ing transverse momentum are considered. The analysis uses 36.1 fb−1 of proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment at √s = 13 TeV in 2015 and 2016. No significant excess of events above the estimated backgrounds is observed. The results are in- terpreted in the framework of simplified models of spin-0 dark-matter mediators. For colour- neutral spin-0 mediators produced in association with top quarks and decaying into a pair of dark-matter particles, mediator masses below 50 GeV are excluded assuming a dark-matter candidate mass of 1 GeV and unitary couplings. For scalar and pseudoscalar mediators produced in association with bottom quarks, the search sets limits on the production cross- section of 300 times the predicted rate for mediators with masses between 10 and 50 GeV and assuming a dark-matter mass of 1 GeV and unitary coupling. Constraints on colour- charged scalar simplified models are also presented. Assuming a dark-matter particle mass of 35 GeV, mediator particles with mass below 1.1 TeV are excluded for couplings yielding a dark-matter relic density consistent with measurements