A Bayesian analysis of the 69 highest energy cosmic rays detected by the Pierre Auger Observatory

The origins of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) remain an open question. Several attempts have been made to cross-correlate the arrival directions of the UHECRs with catalogs of potential sources, but no definite conclusion has been reached. We report a Bayesian analysis of the 69 events from the Pierre Auger Observatory (PAO), that aims to determine the fraction of the UHECRs that originate from known AGNs in the Veron-Cety & Veron (VCV) catalog, as well as AGNs detected with the Swift Burst Alert Telescope (Swift-BAT), galaxies from the 2MASS Redshift Survey (2MRS), and an additional volume-limited sample of 17 nearby AGNs. The study makes use of a multi-level Bayesian model of UHECR injection, propagation and detection. We find that for reasonable ranges of prior parameters, the Bayes factors disfavour a purely isotropic model. For fiducial values of the model parameters, we report 68% credible intervals for the fraction of source originating UHECRs of 0.09+0.05-0.04, 0.25+0.09-0.08, 0.24+0.12-0.10, and 0.08+0.04-0.03 for the VCV, Swift-BAT and 2MRS catalogs, and the sample of 17 AGNs, respectively

Gravitational lensing in galaxy redshift surveys

Gravitationally-lensed quasars should be discovered as a by-product of large galaxy redshift surveys, being discovered spectroscopically when a low-redshift galaxy exhibits high-redshift quasar emission lines. The number of lenses expected is higher than previously estimated, mainly due to the fact that the presence of the quasar images brings faint deflector galaxies above the survey limit. Thus the a posteriori likelihood of the discovery of Q 2237+0305 in the Center for Astrophysics redshift survey is approximately 0.03. In the future, the 2 degree Field survey should yield at least 10 lensed quasars, and the Sloan Digitial Sky Survey up to 100.Comment: Gravitational Lensing: Recent Progress and Future Goals, C.S. Kochanek & T.G. Brainerd, eds., in press; 2 pages, 1 figur

Using the 2dF galaxy redshift survey to detect gravitationally-lensed quasars

Galaxy redshift surveys can be used to detect gravitationally-lensed quasars if the spectra obtained are searched for the quasars' emission lines. Previous investigations of this possibility have used simple models to show that the 2 degree Field (2dF) redshift survey could yield several tens of new lenses, and that the larger Sloan Digital Sky Survey should contain an order of magnitude more. However the particular selection effects of the samples were not included in these calculations, limiting the robustness of the predictions; thus a more detailed simulation of the 2dF survey was undertaken here. The use of an isophotal magnitude limit reduces both the depth of the sample and the expected number of lenses, but more important is the Automatic Plate Measuring survey's star-galaxy separation algorithm, used to generate the 2dF input catalogue. It is found that most quasar lenses are classed as merged stars, with only the few lenses with low-redshift deflectors likely to be classified as galaxies. Explicit inclusion of these selection effects implies that the 2dF survey should contain 10 lenses on average. The largest remaining uncertainty is the lack of knowledge of the ease with which any underlying quasars can be extracted from the survey spectra.Comment: MNRAS, in press; 14 pages, 19 figure

Gravitational lensing by elliptical galaxies

The fraction of high-redshift sources which are multiply-imaged by intervening galaxies is strongly dependent on the cosmological constant, and so can be a useful probe of the cosmological model. However its power is limited by various systematic (and random) uncertainties in the calculation of lensing probabilities, one of the most important of which is the dynamical normalisation of elliptical galaxies. Assuming ellipticals' mass distributions can be modelled as isothermal spheres, the mass normalisation depends on: the velocity anisotropy; the luminosity density; the core radius; and the area over which the velocity dispersion is measured. The differences in the lensing probability and optical depth produced by using the correct normalisation can be comparable to the differences between even the most extreme cosmological models. The existing data is not sufficient to determine the correct normalisation with enough certainty to allow lensing statistics to be used to their full potential. However, as the correct lensing probability is almost certainly higher than is usually assumed, upper bounds on the cosmological constant are not weakened by these possibilities.Comment: MNRAS, in press; 13 pages, 22 figure

Gravitational lensing in modified Newtonian dynamics

Modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) is an alternative theory of gravity that aims to explain large-scale dynamics without recourse to any form of dark matter. However the theory is incomplete, lacking a relativistic counterpart, and so makes no definite predictions about gravitational lensing. The most obvious form that MONDian lensing might take is that photons experience twice the deflection of massive particles moving at the speed of light, as in general relativity (GR). In such a theory there is no general thin-lens approximation (although one can be made for spherically-symmetric deflectors), but the three-dimensional acceleration of photons is in the same direction as the relativistic acceleration would be. In regimes where the deflector can reasonably be approximated as a single point-mass (specifically low-optical depth microlensing and weak galaxy-galaxy lensing), this naive formulation is consistent with observations. Forthcoming galaxy-galaxy lensing data and the possibility of cosmological microlensing have the potential to distinguish unambiguously between GR and MOND. Some tests can also be performed with extended deflectors, for example by using surface brightness measurements of lens galaxies to model quasar lenses, although the breakdown of the thin-lens approximation allows an extra degree of freedom. Nonetheless, it seems unlikely that simple ellipsoidal galaxies can explain both constraints. Further, the low-density universe implied by MOND must be completely dominated by the cosmological constant (to fit microwave background observations), and such models are at odds with the low frequency of quasar lenses. These conflicts might be resolved by a fully consistent relativistic extension to MOND; the alternative is that MOND is not an accurate description of the universe.Comment: MNRAS, in press; 11 pages, 10 figure

Gravitational lensing and modified Newtonian dynamics

Gravitational lensing is most often used as a tool to investigate the distribution of (dark) matter in the universe, but, if the mass distribution is known a priori, it becomes, at least in principle, a powerful probe of gravity itself. Lensing observations are a more powerful tool than dynamical measurements because they allow measurements of the gravitational field far away from visible matter. For example, modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND) has no relativistic extension, and so makes no firm lensing predictions, but galaxy-galaxy lensing data can be used to empirically the deflection law of a point-mass. MONDian lensing is consistent with general relativity, in so far as the deflection experienced by a photon is twice that experienced by a massive particle moving at the speed of light. With the deflection law in place and no invisible matter, MOND can be tested wherever lensing is observed. The implications are that either MONDian lensing is completely non-linear or that MOND is not an accurate description of the universe.Comment: PASA (OzLens edition), in press; 5 pages, 1 figur