Ethnicity, voter alignment and political party affiliation - an African case: Zambia

Conventional wisdom holds that ethnicity provides the social cleavage for voting behav-iour and party affiliation in Africa. Because this is usually inferred from aggregate data of national election results, it might prove to be an ecological fallacy. The evidence based on individual data from an opinion survey in Zambia suggests that ethnicity matters for voter alignment and even more so for party affiliation, but it is certainly not the only factor. The analysis also points to a number of qualifications which are partly methodology-related. One is that the degree of ethnic voting can differ from one ethno-political group to the other depending on various degrees of ethnic mobilisation. Another is that if smaller eth-nic groups or subgroups do not identify with one particular party, it is difficult to find a significant statistical correlation between party affiliation and ethnicity - but that does not prove that they do not affiliate along ethnic lines.Wahlverhalten und Mitgliedschaft in politischen Parteien Afrikas ist nur wenig untersucht worden. Gewöhnlich wird argumentiert, dass Ethnizität als soziale Konfliktlinie das Wahlverhalten und die Parteienmitgliedschaft strukturiert. Da dieses Argument auf hoch aggregierten Wahldaten beruht, kann hier ein ökologischer Fehlschuss vorliegen. Die vorliegende Analyse beruht deshalb auf individuellen Umfragedaten aus Sambia. Das Ergebnis ist, dass Ethnizität tatsächlich eine Rolle für das Wahlverhalten und die Parteienmitgliedschaft spielt, aber keineswegs den einzigen Erklärungsfaktor darstellt. Die Analyse offenbart zudem eine Reihe von Einschränkungen und Qualifizierungen, die teilweise methodischer Natur sind. Eine ist, dass ethnisches Wahlverhalten und Parteienmitgliedschaft von einer ethnischen Gruppe zur anderen unterschiedlich ist, dass, wenn sich kleinere ethnische Gruppen oder Untergruppen mit keiner Partei identifizieren, es schwierig wird, statistisch signifikante Korrelationen zu finden - was indessen noch nicht beweist, dass Ethnizität keine Rolle spielt

Cosmic ray propagation with CRPropa 3

Solving the question of the origin of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) requires the development of detailed simulation tools in order to interpret the experimental data and draw conclusions on the UHECR universe. CRPropa is a public Monte Carlo code for the galactic and extragalactic propagation of cosmic ray nuclei above $\sim 10^{17}$ eV, as well as their photon and neutrino secondaries. In this contribution the new algorithms and features of CRPropa 3, the next major release, are presented. CRPropa 3 introduces time-dependent scenarios to include cosmic evolution in the presence of cosmic ray deflections in magnetic fields. The usage of high resolution magnetic fields is facilitated by shared memory parallelism, modulated fields and fields with heterogeneous resolution. Galactic propagation is enabled through the implementation of galactic magnetic field models, as well as an efficient forward propagation technique through transformation matrices. To make use of the large Python ecosystem in astrophysics CRPropa 3 can be steered and extended in Python.Comment: 16th International workshop on Advanced Computing and Analysis Techniques in physics research (ACAT 2014) proceedings, 6 pages, 6 figure

CRPropa 3.0 - a Public Framework for Propagating UHE Cosmic Rays through Galactic and Extragalactic Space

The interpretation of experimental data of ultra-high energy cosmic rays (UHECRs) above 10^17 eV is still under controversial debate. The development and improvement of numerical tools to propagate UHECRs in galactic and extragalactic space is a crucial ingredient to interpret data and to draw conclusions on astrophysical parameters. In this contribution the next major release of the publicly available code CRPropa (3.0) is presented. It reflects a complete redesign of the code structure to facilitate high performance computing and comprises new physical features such as an interface for galactic propagation using lensing techniques and inclusion of cosmological effects in a three-dimensional environment. The performance is benchmarked and first applications are presented.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures. Proceedings of the 33rd International Cosmic Ray Conference (ICRC), Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2-9 July 201

Antenatal corticosteroids for fetal lung maturation in threatened preterm delivery: indications and administration

Introduction: Antenatal maternal administration of corticosteroids has been shown to reduce morbidity and mortality rates in preterm delivery. Threatened spontaneous or medically indicated preterm delivery for maternal or fetal indications between 24 and 34weeks of gestation with unknown fetal lung maturity status are indications for antenatal corticosteroid administration. Recent studies have challenged current practice of antenatal glucocorticoid use. The goal of this expert letter is to provide recommendations based for the clinical use of antenatal glucocorticoids based on the current evidence from published studies. Methods: The published literature (PubMed search), as well as the recommendations of other national societies, has been searched and taken into consideration for these recommendations. Results/conclusions: The standard regimen of antenatal corticosteroids involves a single course of 2×12mg betamethasone administered intramuscularly within 24h. The administration of corticosteroids usually is performed between 24 and 34weeks gestation. However, under particular circumstances it may be beneficial even at 23weeks and at 35-36weeks of gestation. The evidence to date is clearly against the routine administration of multiple antenatal steroid courses. In special clinical situations, a second course of betamethasone ("rescue course”) may be justifiable. Tocolysis during administration of steroids is not routinely indicated in the absence of contractions, cervical shortening or rupture of membrane

Scalable Online Conformance Checking Using Incremental Prefix-Alignment Computation

Conformance checking techniques aim to collate observed process behavior with normative/modeled process models. The majority of existing approaches focuses on completed process executions, i.e., offline conformance checking. Recently, novel approaches have been designed to monitor ongoing processes, i.e., online conformance checking. Such techniques detect deviations of an ongoing process execution from a normative process model at the moment they occur. Thereby, countermeasures can be taken immediately to prevent a process deviation from causing further, undesired consequences. Most online approaches only allow to detect approximations of deviations. This causes the problem of falsely detected deviations, i.e., detected deviations that are actually no deviations. We have, therefore, recently introduced a novel approach to compute exact conformance checking results in an online environment. In this paper, we focus on the practical application and present a scalable, distributed implementation of the proposed online conformance checking approach. Moreover, we present two extensions to said approach to reduce its computational effort and its practical applicability. We evaluate our implementation using data sets capturing the execution of real processes

Barycenters for the Hellinger--Kantorovich distance over Rd\mathbb{R}^d

We study the barycenter of the Hellinger--Kantorovich metric over non-negative measures on compact, convex subsets of $\mathbb{R}^d$. The article establishes existence, uniqueness (under suitable assumptions) and equivalence between a coupled-two-marginal and a multi-marginal formulation. We analyze the HK barycenter between Dirac measures in detail, and find that it differs substantially from the Wasserstein barycenter by exhibiting a local `clustering' behaviour, depending on the length scale of the input measures. In applications it makes sense to simultaneously consider all choices of this scale, leading to a 1-parameter family of barycenters. We demonstrate the usefulness of this family by analyzing point clouds sampled from a mixture of Gaussians and inferring the number and location of the underlying Gaussians.Comment: Minor changes to keep consistent with journal versio

Measurement of the cosmic ray spectrum above 4×10184{\times}10^{18} eV using inclined events detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory

A measurement of the cosmic-ray spectrum for energies exceeding $4{\times}10^{18}$ eV is presented, which is based on the analysis of showers with zenith angles greater than $60^{\circ}$ detected with the Pierre Auger Observatory between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2013. The measured spectrum confirms a flux suppression at the highest energies. Above $5.3{\times}10^{18}$ eV, the "ankle", the flux can be described by a power law $E^{-\gamma}$ with index $\gamma=2.70 \pm 0.02 \,\text{(stat)} \pm 0.1\,\text{(sys)}$ followed by a smooth suppression region. For the energy ($E_\text{s}$) at which the spectral flux has fallen to one-half of its extrapolated value in the absence of suppression, we find $E_\text{s}=(5.12\pm0.25\,\text{(stat)}^{+1.0}_{-1.2}\,\text{(sys)}){\times}10^{19}$ eV.Comment: Replaced with published version. Added journal reference and DO

Laparoscopic Reversal of Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass with Hand-Sewn Gastro-Gastrostomy and Resection of the Alimentary Limb

INTRODUCTION Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) reversal might be necessary to alleviate refractory surgical or nutritional complications, such as postprandial hypoglycemia, malnutrition, marginal ulceration, malabsorption, chronic diarrhea, nausea and vomiting, gastro-esophageal reflux disease, chronic pain, or excessive weight loss. The surgical technique of RYGB reversal is not standardized; potential strategies include the following: (1) gastro-gastrostomy: hand-sewn technique, linear stapler, circular stapler; (2) handling of the Roux limb: reconnection or resection (if remaining intestinal length ≥ 4 m). CASE PRESENTATION We demonstrate the surgical technique of a laparoscopic reversal of RYGB with hand-sewn gastro-gastrostomy and resection of the alimentary limb with the aim of improving the patient's quality of life. The gastric pouch is horizontally divided proximal to the previous staple line. A hand-sewn end to end anastomosis is created between the distal gastric pouch and the horizontal part of the gastric remnant adjacent to the lesser curve. The posterior wall is sutured in two layers. The anterior layer is closed with continuous 3-0 PDS full-thickness stitches over a 36-French oro-gastric calibration bougie. After evaluation of intestinal limbs and ruling out of hernial defects, the alimentary limb is divided just above the jejuno-jejunal Roux-anastomosis and is resected. CONCLUSION Reversal of RYGB is a precious treatment option for otherwise unmanageable postbariatric complications in well-selected cases. The operation should be performed in high volume bariatric centers after multidisciplinary patient preparation. The early and late complications of the reversal are higher than the rates seen in primary MBS; therefore, patients should be informed and monitored accordingly to ensure the best achievable outcomes