Trends and cardiovascular mortality effects of state-level blood pressure and uncontrolled hypertension in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Blood pressure is an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease and mortality and has lifestyle and healthcare determinants that vary across states. Only self-reported hypertension status is measured at the state level in the United States. Our aim was to estimate levels and trends in state-level mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), the prevalence of uncontrolled systolic hypertension, and cardiovascular mortality attributable to all levels of higher-than-optimal SBP. METHODS AND RESULTS: We estimated the relationship between actual SBP/uncontrolled hypertension and self-reported hypertension, use of blood pressure medication, and a set of health system and sociodemographic variables in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We applied this relationship to identical variables from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to estimate state-specific mean SBP and uncontrolled hypertension. We used the comparative risk assessment methods to estimate cardiovascular mortality attributable to higher-than-optimal SBP. In 2001-2003, age-standardized uncontrolled hypertension prevalence was highest in the District of Columbia, Mississippi, Louisiana, Alabama, Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina (18% to 21% for men and 24% to 26% for women) and lowest in Vermont, Minnesota, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Iowa, and Colorado (15% to 16% for men and approximately 21% for women). Women had a higher prevalence of uncontrolled hypertension than men in every state by 4 (Arizona) to 7 (Kansas) percentage points. In the 1990s, uncontrolled hypertension in women increased the most in Idaho and Oregon (by 6 percentage points) and the least in the District of Columbia and Mississippi (by 3 percentage points). For men, the worst-performing states were New Mexico and Louisiana (decrease of 0.6 and 1.3 percentage points), and the best-performing states were Vermont and Indiana (decrease of 4 and 3 percentage points). Age-standardized cardiovascular mortality attributable to higher-than-optimal SBP ranged from 200 to 220 per 100,000 (Minnesota and Massachusetts) to 360 to 370 per 100,000 (District of Columbia and Mississippi) for women and from 210 per 100,000 (Colorado and Utah) to 370 per 100,000 (Mississippi) and 410 per 100,000 (District of Columbia) for men. CONCLUSIONS: Lifestyle and pharmacological interventions for lowering blood pressure are particularly needed in the South and Appalachia, and with emphasis on control among women. Self-reported data on hypertension diagnosis from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System can be used to obtain unbiased state-level estimates of blood pressure and uncontrolled hypertension as benchmarks for priority setting and for designing and evaluating intervention programs

Do mass media campaigns improve physical activity? a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background: Mass media campaigns are frequently used to influence the health behaviors of various populations. There are currently no quantitative meta-analyses of the effect of mass media campaigns on physical activity in adults. Methods: We searched six electronic databases from their inception to August 2012 and selected prospective studies that evaluated the effect of mass media campaigns on physical activity in adults. We excluded studies that did not have a proper control group or did not report the uncertainties of the effect estimates. Two reviewers independently screened the title/abstracts and full articles. We used random-effects models to pool effect estimates across studies for 3 selected outcomes. Results: Nine prospective cohorts and before-after studies that followed-up 27,601 people over 8 weeks to 3 years met the inclusion criteria. Based on the pooled results from these studies, mass media campaigns had a significant effect on promoting moderate intensity walking (pooled relative risk (RR) from 3 studies=1.53, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.25 to 1.87), but did not help participants achieve sufficient levels of physical activity [4 studies pooled RR=1.02, 95% CI: 0.91 to 1.14)]. The apparent effect of media campaigns on reducing sedentary behavior (pooled RR=1.15, 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.30) was lost when a relatively low-quality study with large effects was excluded in a sensitivity analysis. In subgroup analyses, campaigns that promoted physical activity as a ‘social norm’ seemed to be more effective in reducing sedentary behavior. Conclusion: Mass media campaigns may promote walking but may not reduce sedentary behavior or lead to achieving recommended levels of overall physical activity. Further research is warranted on different campaign types and in low- and middle- income countries

External Validation of Cardiovascular Risk Scores in the Southern Cone of Latin America: Which Predicts Better?

Introducción: La estimación inexacta del riesgo cardiovascular poblacional puede llevar a un manejo inadecuado de las intervenciones médicas preventivas, como, por ejemplo, el uso de estatinas. Objetivo: Evaluar la validez externa de ecuaciones de predicción de riesgo cardiovascular en población general del Cono Sur de Latinoamérica. Material y métodos: Se evaluaron ecuaciones que incluyen variables evaluadas en el estudio CESCAS y que predicen tanto morbilidad como mortalidad cardiovascular global (CUORE, Framingham, Globorisk y Pooled Cohort Studies Equations). Para cada ecuación se realizó un análisis independiente en el que se tuvieron en cuenta los eventos cardiovasculares relevados. Se evaluó la discriminación de cada ecuación a través del cálculo del estadístico-C y el índice Harrell C. Para evaluar la calibración se graficó la proporción de riesgos observados vs. estimados por quintilos de riesgo para cada ecuación y se calculó la pendiente β de regresión lineal para las estimaciones. Se calculó sensibilidad y especificidad para la detección de personas con elevado riesgo cardiovascular. Resultados: La mediana del tiempo de seguimiento de la cohorte al momento del análisis es de 2,2 años, con un rango intercuartilo de 1,9 a 2,8 años. Se incorporaron a los análisis 60 eventos cardiovasculares. Todos los valores de estadístico-C y del índice de Harrell fueron superiores a 0,7. El valor de la pendiente β más alejado de 1 fue el de Pooled Cohort Studies Euations. Conclusiones: Si bien los parámetros de validación externa evaluados fueron similares, CUORE, Globorisk y el índice de Framingham fueron las ecuaciones con mejores indicadores globales de predicción de riesgo cardiovascular.Background: Inaccurate estimates of demographic cardiovascular risk may lead to an inadequate management of preventive medical interventions such as the use of statins. Objectives: The aim of this study was to evaluate the external validity of cardiovascular risk equations in the general population of the Southern Cone of Latin America. Methods: Equations including variables evaluated in the CESCAS cohort study and that estimate overall cardiovascular mortality (CUORE, Framingham, Globorisk and Pooled Cohort Studies) were assessed. For each equation, an independent analysis was performed taking into account the cardiovascular events originally considered. Discrimination of each equation was evaluated through C-statistic and Harrell’s C-index. To assess calibration, a graph was built for each equation with the proportion of observed events vs. the proportion of estimated events by risk quintiles and the β slope of the resulting linear regression was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity were determined for the detection of people at high cardiovascular risk. Results: The median follow-up time of the cohort at the time of the analysis was 2.2 years, with an interquartile range of 1.9 to 2.8 years. Sixty cardiovascular events were incorporated into the analysis. All C-statistic and Harrell’s-C index values were greater than 0.7. The value of the β slope farthest from 1 was that of the Pooled Cohort Studies score. Conclusions: Although the external validation parameters evaluated were similar, CUORE, Globorisk and the Framingham equations showed the best global performance for cardiovascular risk estimation in our population.Fil: Gulayin, Pablo Elías. Universidad Nacional de La Plata; Argentina. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Danaei, Goodarz. Harvard University. Harvard School of Public Health; Estados UnidosFil: Gutierrez, Laura. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Poggio, Rosana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Ponzo, Jaqueline. Universidad de la República; UruguayFil: Lanas, Fernando. Universidad de La Frontera; ChileFil: Rubinstein, Adolfo Luis. Ministerio de Salud de la Nación; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; ArgentinaFil: Irazola, Vilma. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin

Scaling-Up Access to Family Planning May Improve Linear Growth and Child Development in Low and Middle Income Countries

Background: A large literature has indicated a robust association between birth spacing and child survival, but evidence on the association of birth timing with physical growth in low and middle income countries (LMICs) remains limited. Methods and Results: Data from 153 cross-sectional Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) across 61 LMICs conducted between 1990 and 2011 were combined to assess the association of birth timing with child stunting (height-for-age z-score <−2). A total of 623,789 children of birth order 1–5 contributed to the maternal age analysis, while the birth spacing dataset consisted of 584,226 children of birth order 2 and higher. Compared to 27–34 year old mothers, maternal age under 18 years was associated with a relative stunting risk of 1.35 (95% CI: 1.29–1.40) for firstborn children, whereas the relative risk was 1.24 (95% CI: 1.19–1.29) for mothers aged 18–19 years. The association of young maternal age with stunting was significantly greater for urban residents and those in the top 50% of household wealth. Birth intervals less than 12 months and 12–23 months had relative risks for stunting of 1.09 (95% CI: 1.06–1.12) and 1.06 (95% CI: 1.05–1.06) as compared to a 24–35 month inter-pregnancy interval, respectively. The strength of both teenage pregnancy and short birth interval associations showed substantial variation across WHO region. We estimate that 8.6% (6.9–10.3%) of stunted cases in the South Asian DHS sample would have been averted by jointly eliminating teen pregnancies and birth intervals less than 24 months, while only 3.6% (1.5–5.7%) of stunting cases would have prevented in the Middle East and North Africa sample. Conclusions: Postponing the age of first birth and increasing inter-pregnancy intervals has the potential to significantly reduce the prevalence of stunting and improve child development in LMICs

National and subnational mortality effects of metabolic risk factors and smoking in Iran: a comparative risk assessment

Abstract Background Mortality from cardiovascular and other chronic diseases has increased in Iran. Our aim was to estimate the effects of smoking and high systolic blood pressure (SBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), total cholesterol (TC), and high body mass index (BMI) on mortality and life expectancy, nationally and subnationally, using representative data and comparable methods. Methods We used data from the Non-Communicable Disease Surveillance Survey to estimate means and standard deviations for the metabolic risk factors, nationally and by region. Lung cancer mortality was used to measure cumulative exposure to smoking. We used data from the death registration system to estimate age-, sex-, and disease-specific numbers of deaths in 2005, adjusted for incompleteness using demographic methods. We used systematic reviews and meta-analyses of epidemiologic studies to obtain the effect of risk factors on disease-specific mortality. We estimated deaths and life expectancy loss attributable to risk factors using the comparative risk assessment framework. Results In 2005, high SBP was responsible for 41,000 (95% uncertainty interval: 38,000, 44,000) deaths in men and 39,000 (36,000, 42,000) deaths in women in Iran. High FPG, BMI, and TC were responsible for about one-third to one-half of deaths attributable to SBP in men and/or women. Smoking was responsible for 9,000 deaths among men and 2,000 among women. If SBP were reduced to optimal levels, life expectancy at birth would increase by 3.2 years (2.6, 3.9) and 4.1 years (3.2, 4.9) in men and women, respectively; the life expectancy gains ranged from 1.1 to 1.8 years for TC, BMI, and FPG. SBP was also responsible for the largest number of deaths in every region, with age-standardized attributable mortality ranging from 257 to 333 deaths per 100,000 adults in different regions. Discussion Management of blood pressure through diet, lifestyle, and pharmacological interventions should be a priority in Iran. Interventions for other metabolic risk factors and smoking can also improve population health. </jats:sec

Associations of Suboptimal Growth with All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality in Children under Five Years: A Pooled Analysis of Ten Prospective Studies

Background: Child undernutrition affects millions of children globally. We investigated associations between suboptimal growth and mortality by pooling large studies. Methods: Pooled analysis involving children 1 week to 59 months old in 10 prospective studies in Africa, Asia and South America. Utilizing most recent measurements, we calculated weight-for-age, height/length-for-age and weight-for-height/length Z scores, applying 2006 WHO Standards and the 1977 NCHS/WHO Reference. We estimated all-cause and cause-specific mortality hazard ratios (HR) using proportional hazards models comparing children with mild (−2≤Z<−1), moderate (−3≤Z<−2), or severe (Z<−3) anthropometric deficits with the reference category (Z≥−1). Results: 53 809 children were eligible for this re-analysis and contributed a total of 55 359 person-years, during which 1315 deaths were observed. All degrees of underweight, stunting and wasting were associated with significantly higher mortality. The strength of association increased monotonically as Z scores decreased. Pooled mortality HR was 1.52 (95% Confidence Interval 1.28, 1.81) for mild underweight; 2.63 (2.20, 3.14) for moderate underweight; and 9.40 (8.02, 11.03) for severe underweight. Wasting was a stronger determinant of mortality than stunting or underweight. Mortality HR for severe wasting was 11.63 (9.84, 13.76) compared with 5.48 (4.62, 6.50) for severe stunting. Using older NCHS standards resulted in larger HRs compared with WHO standards. In cause-specific analyses, all degrees of anthropometric deficits increased the hazards of dying from respiratory tract infections and diarrheal diseases. The study had insufficient power to precisely estimate effects of undernutrition on malaria mortality. Conclusions: All degrees of anthropometric deficits are associated with increased risk of under-five mortality using the 2006 WHO Standards. Even mild deficits substantially increase mortality, especially from infectious diseases

Hypothetical interventions and risk of atrial fibrillation by sex and education: application of the parametric g-formula in the Tromsø Study

Aims - To use the parametric g-formula to estimate the long-term risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) by sex and education under hypothetical interventions on six modifiable risk factors. Methods and results - We estimated the risk reduction under hypothetical risk reduction strategies for smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, body mass index, systolic, and diastolic blood pressure in 14 923 women and men (baseline mean age 45.8 years in women and 47.8 years in men) from the population-based Tromsø Study with a maximum of 22 years of follow-up (1994–2016). The estimated risk of AF under no intervention was 6.15% in women and 13.0% in men. This cumulative risk was reduced by 41% (95% confidence interval 17%, 61%) in women and 14% (−7%, 30%) in men under joint interventions on all risk factors. The most effective intervention was lowering body mass index to ≤ 25 kg/m2, leading to a 16% (4%, 25%) lower risk in women and a 14% (6%, 23%) lower risk in men. We found significant sex-differences in the relative risk reduction by sufficient physical activity, leading to a 7% (-4%, 18%) lower risk in women and an 8% (−2%, −13%) increased risk in men. We found no association between the level of education and differences in risk reduction by any of the interventions. Conclusion - The population burden of AF could be reduced by modifying lifestyle risk factors. Namely, these modifications could have prevented 41% of AF cases in women and 14% of AF cases in men in the municipality of Tromsø, Norway during a maximum 22-year follow-up period

Global sodium consumption and death from cardiovascular causes.

To access publisher's full text version of this article click on the hyperlink at the bottom of the pageHigh sodium intake increases blood pressure, a risk factor for cardiovascular disease, but the effects of sodium intake on global cardiovascular mortality are uncertain.We collected data from surveys on sodium intake as determined by urinary excretion and diet in persons from 66 countries (accounting for 74.1% of adults throughout the world), and we used these data to quantify the global consumption of sodium according to age, sex, and country. The effects of sodium on blood pressure, according to age, race, and the presence or absence of hypertension, were calculated from data in a new meta-analysis of 107 randomized interventions, and the effects of blood pressure on cardiovascular mortality, according to age, were calculated from a meta-analysis of cohorts. Cause-specific mortality was derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Using comparative risk assessment, we estimated the cardiovascular effects of current sodium intake, as compared with a reference intake of 2.0 g of sodium per day, according to age, sex, and country.In 2010, the estimated mean level of global sodium consumption was 3.95 g per day, and regional mean levels ranged from 2.18 to 5.51 g per day. Globally, 1.65 million annual deaths from cardiovascular causes (95% uncertainty interval [confidence interval], 1.10 million to 2.22 million) were attributed to sodium intake above the reference level; 61.9% of these deaths occurred in men and 38.1% occurred in women. These deaths accounted for nearly 1 of every 10 deaths from cardiovascular causes (9.5%). Four of every 5 deaths (84.3%) occurred in low- and middle-income countries, and 2 of every 5 deaths (40.4%) were premature (before 70 years of age). The rate of death from cardiovascular causes associated with sodium intake above the reference level was highest in the country of Georgia and lowest in Kenya.In this modeling study, 1.65 million deaths from cardiovascular causes that occurred in 2010 were attributed to sodium consumption above a reference level of 2.0 g per day. (Funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.).Bill and Melinda Gates Foundatio

An innovative approach to improve the detection and treatment of risk factors in poor urban settings: a feasibility study in Argentina

Background: The effective management of cardiovascular (CVD) prevention among the population with exclusive public health coverage in Argentina is low since less than 30% of the individuals with predicted 10-year CVD risk ≥10% attend a clinical visit for CVD risk factors control in the primary care clinics (PCCs). Methods: We conducted a non-controlled feasibility study using a mixed methods approach to evaluate acceptability, adoption and fidelity of a multi-component intervention implemented in the public healthcare system. The eligibility criteria were having exclusive public health coverage, age ≥ 40 years, residence in the PCC’s catchment area and 10-year CVD risk ≥10%. The multi-component intervention addressed (1) system barriers through task shifting among the PCC’s staff, protected medical appointments slots and a new CVD form and (2) Provider barriers through training for primary care physicians and CHW and individual barriers through a home-based intervention delivered by community health workers (CHWs). Results: A total of 185 participants were included in the study. Of the total number of eligible participants, 82.2% attended at least one clinical visit for risk factor control. Physicians intensified drug treatment in 77% of participants with BP ≥140/90 mmHg and 79.5% of participants with diabetes, increased the proportion of participants treated according to GCP from 21 to 32.6% in hypertensive participants, 7.4 to 33.3% in high CVD risk and 1.4 to 8.7% in very high CVD risk groups. Mean systolic and diastolic blood pressure were lower at the end of follow up (156.9 to 145.4 mmHg and 92.9 to 88.9 mmHg, respectively) and control of hypertension (BP < 140/90 mmHg) increased from 20.3 to 35.5%. Conclusion: The proposed CHWs-led intervention was feasible and well accepted to improve the detection and treatment of risk factors in the poor population with exclusive public health coverage and with moderate or high CVD risk at the primary care setting in Argentina. Task sharing activities with CHWs did not only stimulate teamwork among PCC staff, but it also improved quality of care. This study showed that community health workers could have a more active role in the detection and clinical management of CVD risk factors in low-income communities.Fil: Poggio, Rosana. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; ArgentinaFil: Danaei, Goodarz. Harvard University. Harvard School of Public Health; Estados UnidosFil: Gutierrez, Laura. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Cavallo, Ana. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Lopez, María Victoria. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria; ArgentinaFil: Irazola, Vilma. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Oficina de Coordinación Administrativa Parque Centenario. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública. Instituto de Efectividad Clínica y Sanitaria. Centro de Investigaciones en Epidemiología y Salud Pública; Argentin