A New Framework for Analyzing and Managing Macrofinancial Risks of an Economy

The high cost of international economic and financial crises highlights the need for a comprehensive framework to assess the robustness of national economic and financial systems. This paper proposes a new comprehensive approach to measure, analyze, and manage macroeconomic risk based on the theory and practice of modern contingent claims analysis (CCA). We illustrate how to use the CCA approach to model and measure sectoral and national risk exposures, and analyze policies to offset their potentially harmful effects. This new framework provides economic balance sheets for inter-linked sectors and a risk accounting framework for an economy. CCA provides a natural framework for analysis of mismatches between an entity's assets and liabilities, such as currency and maturity mismatches on balance sheets. Policies or actions that reduce these mismatches will help reduce risk and vulnerability. It also provides a new framework for sovereign capital structure analysis. It is useful for assessing vulnerability, policy analysis, risk management, investment analysis, and design of risk control strategies. Both public and private sector participants can benefit from pursuing ways to facilitate more efficient macro risk accounting, improve price and volatility discovery, and expand international risk intermediation activities.

New Framework for Measuring and Managing Macrofinancial Risk and Financial Stability

This paper proposes a new approach to improve the way central banks can analyze and manage the financial risks of a national economy. It is based on the modern theory and practice of contingent claims analysis (CCA), which is successfully used today at the level of individual banks by managers, investors, and regulators. The basic analytical tool is the risk-adjusted balance sheet, which shows the sensitivity of the enterprise’s assets and liabilities to external “shocks.” At the national level, the sectors of an economy are viewed as interconnected portfolios of assets, liabilities, and guarantees—some explicit and others implicit. Traditional approaches have difficulty analyzing how risks can accumulate gradually and then suddenly erupt in a full-blown crisis. The CCA approach is well-suited to capturing such “non-linearities” and to quantifying the effects of asset-liability mismatches within and across institutions. Risk-adjusted CCA balance sheets facilitate simulations and stress testing to evaluate the potential impact of policies to manage systemic risk.

Corporate Restructuring and Governance in East Asia

https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/1999/03/iskander.ht

An investigation into CLIL-related sections of EFL coursebooks : issues of CLIL inclusion in the publishing market

The current ELT global coursebook market has embraced CLIL as a weak form of bilingual education and an innovative component to include in General English coursebooks for EFL contexts. In this paper I investigate how CLIL is included in ELT coursebooks aimed at teenaged learners, available to teachers in Argentina. My study is based on the content analysis of four series which include a section advertised as CLIL-oriented. Results suggest that such sections are characterised by (1) little correlation between featured subject specific content and school curricula in L1, (2) oversimplification of contents, and (3) dominance of reading skills development and lower-order thinking tasks. Through this study, I argue that CLIL components become superficial supplements rather than a meaningful attempt to promote weak forms of bilingual education

STAGES: the Space Telescope A901/2 Galaxy Evolution Survey

We present an overview of the Space Telescope A901/2 Galaxy Evolution Survey (STAGES). STAGES is a multiwavelength project designed to probe physical drivers of galaxy evolution across a wide range of environments and luminosity. A complex multi-cluster system at z~0.165 has been the subject of an 80-orbit F606W HST/ACS mosaic covering the full 0.5x0.5 (~5x5 Mpc^2) span of the supercluster. Extensive multiwavelength observations with XMM-Newton, GALEX, Spitzer, 2dF, GMRT, and the 17-band COMBO-17 photometric redshift survey complement the HST imaging. Our survey goals include simultaneously linking galaxy morphology with other observables such as age, star-formation rate, nuclear activity, and stellar mass. In addition, with the multiwavelength dataset and new high resolution mass maps from gravitational lensing, we are able to disentangle the large-scale structure of the system. By examining all aspects of environment we will be able to evaluate the relative importance of the dark matter halos, the local galaxy density, and the hot X-ray gas in driving galaxy transformation. This paper describes the HST imaging, data reduction, and creation of a master catalogue. We perform Sersic fitting on the HST images and conduct associated simulations to quantify completeness. In addition, we present the COMBO-17 photometric redshift catalogue and estimates of stellar masses and star-formation rates for this field. We define galaxy and cluster sample selection criteria which will be the basis for forthcoming science analyses, and present a compilation of notable objects in the field. Finally, we describe the further multiwavelength observations and announce public access to the data and catalogues.Comment: 29 pages, 22 figures; accepted to MNRAS. Full data release available at http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/astronomy/stage

The preschool repetition test: An evaluation of performance in typically developing and clinically referred children

Purpose: To determine the psychometric properties of the Preschool Repetition Test (Roy & Chiat, 2004); to establish the range of performance in typically developing children and variables affecting this; and to compare the performance of clinically referred children. Method: The PSRep Test comprises 18 words and 18 phonologically matched nonwords systematically varied for length and prosodic structure. This test was administered to a ‘typical’ sample of children aged 2;0–4;0 (n=315) and a ‘clinic’ sample of children aged 2;6-4;0 (n=168), together with language assessments. Results: Performance in the typical sample was independent of gender and SES, but was affected by age, item length, and prosodic structure, and was moderately correlated with receptive vocabulary. Performance in the clinic sample was significantly poorer, but revealed similar effects of length and prosody, and similar relations to language measures overall, with some notable exceptions. Test-retest and interrater reliability were high. Conclusions: The PSRep Test is a viable and informative test. It differentiates within and between ‘typical’ and ‘clinic’ samples of children, and reveals some unusual profiles within the clinic sample. These findings lay the foundations for a follow-up study of the clinic sample to investigate the predictive value of the test

Collision activity during training increases total energy expenditure measured via doubly labelled water

Purpose: Collision sports are characterised by frequent high intensity collisions that induce substantial muscle damage, potentially increasing the energetic cost of recovery. Therefore, this study investigated the energetic cost of collision-based activity for the first time across any sport. Methods: Using a randomised crossover design, six professional young male rugby league players completed two different five-day pre-season training microcycles. Players completed either a collision (COLL; 20 competitive one-on-one collisions) or non-collision (nCOLL; matched for kinematic demands, excluding collisions) training session on the first day of each microcycle, exactly seven days apart. All remaining training sessions were matched and did not involve any collision-based activity. Total energy expenditure was measured using doubly labelled water, the literature gold standard. Results: Collisions resulted in a very likely higher (4.96 ± 0.97 MJ; ES = 0.30 ±0.07; p=0.0021) total energy expenditure across the five-day COLL training microcycle (95.07 ± 16.66 MJ) compared with the nCOLL training microcycle (90.34 ± 16.97 MJ). The COLL training session also resulted in a very likely higher (200 ± 102 AU; ES = 1.43 ±0.74; p=0.007) session rating of perceived exertion and a very likely greater (-14.6 ± 3.3%; ES = -1.60 ±0.51; p=0.002) decrease in wellbeing 24h later. Conclusions: A single collision training session considerably increased total energy expenditure. This may explain the large energy expenditures of collision sport athletes, which appear to exceed kinematic training and match demands. These findings suggest fuelling professional collision-sport athletes appropriately for the "muscle damage caused” alongside the kinematic “work required”. Key words: Nutrition, Recovery, Contact, Rugb