Comparison of ACER and POT Methods for estimation of Extreme Values

Comparison of the performance of the ACER and POT methods for prediction of extreme values from heavy tailed distributions. To be able to apply the ACER method to heavy tailed data the ACER method was first modified to assume that the underlying extreme value distribution would be a Fréchet distribution, not a Gumbel distribution as assumed earlier. These two methods have then been tested with a wide range of synthetic and real world data sets to compare their preformance in estimation of these extreme values. I have found the ACER method seem to consistently perform better in the terms of accuracy compared to the asymptotic POT method

On the Estimation of Extreme Values for Risk Assessment and Management: The ACER Method

In this paper we use an Average Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER) method to model the tail of the price change distribution of daily spot prices in the Nordic electricity market, Nord Pool Spot. We use an AR-GARCH model to remove any seasonality, serial correlation and heteroskedasticity from the data before modelling the residuals from this filtering process with the ACER method. We show that using the conditional ACER method for Value-at-Risk forecasts give significant improvement over a standard AR-GARCH model with normal or Student’s-t distributed errors. Compared to a conditional generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with the Peaks-over-Threshold (POT) method, the conditional ACER method produces slightly more accurate quantile forecasts for the highest quantiles.publishedVersion© 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Premier Publishing

On the Estimation of Extreme Values for Risk Assessment and Management: The ACER Method

In this paper we use an Average Conditional Exceedance Rate (ACER) method to model the tail of the price change distribution of daily spot prices in the Nordic electricity market, Nord Pool Spot. We use an AR-GARCH model to remove any seasonality, serial correlation and heteroskedasticity from the data before modelling the residuals from this filtering process with the ACER method. We show that using the conditional ACER method for Value-at-Risk forecasts give significant improvement over a standard AR-GARCH model with normal or Student’s-t distributed errors. Compared to a conditional generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) fitted with the Peaks-over-Threshold (POT) method, the conditional ACER method produces slightly more accurate quantile forecasts for the highest quantiles.publishedVersio

Clinical and transcriptomic features of persistent exacerbation-prone severe asthma in U-BIOPRED cohort

Background: Exacerbation-prone asthma is a feature of severe disease. Yet, the basis for its persistency remains unclear. Objectives: To determine the clinical and transcriptomic features of the frequent-exacerbator (FE) and of persistent FEs (PFE) in U-BIOPRED cohort. Methods: We compared features of FE (≥2 exacerbations in past year) to infrequent exacerbators (IE, <2 exacerbations) and of PFE with repeat ≥2 exacerbations during the following year to persistent IE (PIE). Transcriptomic data in blood, bronchial and nasal epithelial brushings, bronchial biopsies and sputum cells were analysed by gene set variation analysis for 103 gene signatures. Results: Of 317 patients, 62.4 % were FE of whom 63.6% were PFE, while 37.6% were IE of whom 61.3% were PIE. Using multivariate analysis, FE was associated with short-acting beta-agonist use, sinusitis and daily oral corticosteroid use, while PFE with eczema, short-acting beta-agonist use and asthma control index. CEA Cell Adhesion Molecule 5 (CEACAM5) was the only differentially-expressed transcript in bronchial biopsies between PE and IE. There were no differentially-expressed genes in the other 4 compartments. There were higher expression scores for Type 2 , T-helper type-17 and Type 1 pathway signatures together with those associated with viral infections in bronchial biopsies from FE compared to IE, while higher expression scores of Type 2, Type 1 and steroid insensitivity pathway signatures in bronchial biopsies of PFE compared to PIE. Conclusion: FE group and its PFE subgroup are associated with poor asthma control while expressing higher Type 1 and Type 2 activation pathways compared to IE and PIE, respectively

Stratification of asthma phenotypes by airway proteomic signatures

© 2019 Background: Stratification by eosinophil and neutrophil counts increases our understanding of asthma and helps target therapy, but there is room for improvement in our accuracy in prediction of treatment responses and a need for better understanding of the underlying mechanisms. Objective: We sought to identify molecular subphenotypes of asthma defined by proteomic signatures for improved stratification. Methods: Unbiased label-free quantitative mass spectrometry and topological data analysis were used to analyze the proteomes of sputum supernatants from 246 participants (206 asthmatic patients) as a novel means of asthma stratification. Microarray analysis of sputum cells provided transcriptomics data additionally to inform on underlying mechanisms. Results: Analysis of the sputum proteome resulted in 10 clusters (ie, proteotypes) based on similarity in proteomic features, representing discrete molecular subphenotypes of asthma. Overlaying granulocyte counts onto the 10 clusters as metadata further defined 3 of these as highly eosinophilic, 3 as highly neutrophilic, and 2 as highly atopic with relatively low granulocytic inflammation. For each of these 3 phenotypes, logistic regression analysis identified candidate protein biomarkers, and matched transcriptomic data pointed to differentially activated underlying mechanisms. Conclusion: This study provides further stratification of asthma currently classified based on quantification of granulocytic inflammation and provided additional insight into their underlying mechanisms, which could become targets for novel therapies

Nrf2-interacting nutrients and COVID-19 : time for research to develop adaptation strategies

There are large between- and within-country variations in COVID-19 death rates. Some very low death rate settings such as Eastern Asia, Central Europe, the Balkans and Africa have a common feature of eating large quantities of fermented foods whose intake is associated with the activation of the Nrf2 (Nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2) anti-oxidant transcription factor. There are many Nrf2-interacting nutrients (berberine, curcumin, epigallocatechin gallate, genistein, quercetin, resveratrol, sulforaphane) that all act similarly to reduce insulin resistance, endothelial damage, lung injury and cytokine storm. They also act on the same mechanisms (mTOR: Mammalian target of rapamycin, PPAR gamma:Peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, NF kappa B: Nuclear factor kappa B, ERK: Extracellular signal-regulated kinases and eIF2 alpha:Elongation initiation factor 2 alpha). They may as a result be important in mitigating the severity of COVID-19, acting through the endoplasmic reticulum stress or ACE-Angiotensin-II-AT(1)R axis (AT(1)R) pathway. Many Nrf2-interacting nutrients are also interacting with TRPA1 and/or TRPV1. Interestingly, geographical areas with very low COVID-19 mortality are those with the lowest prevalence of obesity (Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia). It is tempting to propose that Nrf2-interacting foods and nutrients can re-balance insulin resistance and have a significant effect on COVID-19 severity. It is therefore possible that the intake of these foods may restore an optimal natural balance for the Nrf2 pathway and may be of interest in the mitigation of COVID-19 severity

Cabbage and fermented vegetables : From death rate heterogeneity in countries to candidates for mitigation strategies of severe COVID-19

Large differences in COVID-19 death rates exist between countries and between regions of the same country. Some very low death rate countries such as Eastern Asia, Central Europe, or the Balkans have a common feature of eating large quantities of fermented foods. Although biases exist when examining ecological studies, fermented vegetables or cabbage have been associated with low death rates in European countries. SARS-CoV-2 binds to its receptor, the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2). As a result of SARS-CoV-2 binding, ACE2 downregulation enhances the angiotensin II receptor type 1 (AT(1)R) axis associated with oxidative stress. This leads to insulin resistance as well as lung and endothelial damage, two severe outcomes of COVID-19. The nuclear factor (erythroid-derived 2)-like 2 (Nrf2) is the most potent antioxidant in humans and can block in particular the AT(1)R axis. Cabbage contains precursors of sulforaphane, the most active natural activator of Nrf2. Fermented vegetables contain many lactobacilli, which are also potent Nrf2 activators. Three examples are: kimchi in Korea, westernized foods, and the slum paradox. It is proposed that fermented cabbage is a proof-of-concept of dietary manipulations that may enhance Nrf2-associated antioxidant effects, helpful in mitigating COVID-19 severity.Peer reviewe

Comparison of ACER and POT Methods for estimation of Extreme Values

Comparison of the performance of the ACER and POT methods for prediction of extreme values from heavy tailed distributions. To be able to apply the ACER method to heavy tailed data the ACER method was first modified to assume that the underlying extreme value distribution would be a Fréchet distribution, not a Gumbel distribution as assumed earlier. These two methods have then been tested with a wide range of synthetic and real world data sets to compare their preformance in estimation of these extreme values. I have found the ACER method seem to consistently perform better in the terms of accuracy compared to the asymptotic POT method