Pathogen taxonomic group ranked by 47 experts according to likelihood of being influenced by climate.

<p>a: helminths, b: bacteria, c: viruses, d: protozoa, e: fungi. A rank of 1 indicates least likely and a rank of 5 most likely to be influenced by climate.</p

List of criteria to prioritise diseases according to how likely they are to emerge in Canada in response to climate change (groups A to C) and according to their impact (groups D and E).

<p>List of criteria to prioritise diseases according to how likely they are to emerge in Canada in response to climate change (groups A to C) and according to their impact (groups D and E).</p

Difference profile of Lyme disease compared to Chagas disease.

<p>Bars indicate the difference in the score of two diseases for each criterion. A score of 0 (i.e. no bar) indicates that the two diseases scored the same. A green bar indicates that Lyme scored higher than Chagas, while orange bars indicate that Chagas scored higher than Lyme.</p

Ten criteria deemed the most likely to influence pathogen emergence or impact.

<p>Criteria labelled A to C relate to emergence, criteria labelled D and E relate to impact. The weight was calculated as the mean score of all participant responses.</p

Disease ranking by criteria grouping calculated in the spreadsheet tool for nine diseases.

<p>Criteria were weighted using a probability distribution representative of expert opinion. Cumulative probability distribution shows the score for each disease during 10,000 iterations. Legends show pathogen ranking.</p

Disease mode of transmission ranked by 45 experts according to likelihood of being influenced by climate.

<p>a: vector-borne, b: water-borne; c: food-borne; d: air-borne; e: direct/indirect contact transmission. A rank of 1 indicates least likely and a rank of 5 most likely to be influenced by climate. A score of 0 indicated the opinion that climate does not have an influence on diseases with this mode of transmission.</p

Decision tree structure (showing some of the criteria) developed in the software M-MACBETH.

<p>Branches of the decision tree with a light blue branch are criteria, those with a yellow branch are attributes within one criterion.</p

Disease ranking calculated in the spreadsheet tool for nine diseases.

<p>A: Criteria were weighted using a fixed mean value based on expert opinion (weighting method 1). The maximum score possible for any disease was 23.7. B: Criteria were weighted using a probability distribution representing the range of expert opinion (weighting method 2). Cumulative probability distribution shows the total score over 10,000 iterations for each disease. The maximum score of a disease was a mean of 23.5 (standard deviation ±2.37, 95^th percentile = 27.2 after 10,000 iterations).</p

Opinion of 64 experts about the likelihood that ‘<i>a criterion</i>’ will influence infectious disease emergence - examples in which participants' opinions were generally in agreement.

<p>Criteria (number and description): a: A7 trend of animal disease incidence in Canada in the last five years; b: A11 mode of pathogen transmission; c: C_V4 an increase in summer temperature in Canada; d: D6 pathogenicity in domesticated animals.</p

Characteristics of pathogens that were selected for prioritisation testing.

<p>Fourteen pathogens were selected of which nine were tested in the prioritisation tools.</p>*<p>Five were excluded because there were not a sufficient number of individuals to complete a questionnaire. A minimum of three questionnaires were required per pathogen for inclusion.</p