Choice of discount rate for cost levelization

"September 20, 1991."--ForewordIncludes bibliographical references (page 32

Tidal torques. A critical review of some techniques

We point out that the MacDonald formula for body-tide torques is valid only in the zeroth order of e/Q, while its time-average is valid in the first order. So the formula cannot be used for analysis in higher orders of e/Q. This necessitates corrections in the theory of tidal despinning and libration damping. We prove that when the inclination is low and phase lags are linear in frequency, the Kaula series is equivalent to a corrected version of the MacDonald method. The correction to MacDonald's approach would be to set the phase lag of the integral bulge proportional to the instantaneous frequency. The equivalence of descriptions gets violated by a nonlinear frequency-dependence of the lag. We explain that both the MacDonald- and Darwin-torque-based derivations of the popular formula for the tidal despinning rate are limited to low inclinations and to the phase lags being linear in frequency. The Darwin-torque-based derivation, though, is general enough to accommodate both a finite inclination and the actual rheology. Although rheologies with Q scaling as the frequency to a positive power make the torque diverge at a zero frequency, this reveals not the impossible nature of the rheology, but a flaw in mathematics, i.e., a common misassumption that damping merely provides lags to the terms of the Fourier series for the tidal potential. A hydrodynamical treatment (Darwin 1879) had demonstrated that the magnitudes of the terms, too, get changed. Reinstating of this detail tames the infinities and rehabilitates the "impossible" scaling law (which happens to be the actual law the terrestrial planets obey at low frequencies).Comment: arXiv admin note: sections 4 and 9 of this paper contain substantial text overlap with arXiv:0712.105

The origin of the matter-antimatter asymmetry

Although the origin of matter-antimatter asymmetry remains unknown, continuing advances in theory and improved experimental limits have ruled out some scenarios for baryogenesis, for example the sphaleron baryogenesis at the electroweak phase transition in the standard model. At the same time, the success of cosmological inflation and the prospects for discovering supersymmetry at the LHC have put some other models in sharper focus. We review the current state of our understanding of baryogenesis with the emphasis on those scenarios that we consider most plausible.Comment: submitted to Reviews of Modern Physics; 38 pages; 9 figure

Individual common variants exert weak effects on the risk for autism spectrum disorders.

While it is apparent that rare variation can play an important role in the genetic architecture of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs), the contribution of common variation to the risk of developing ASD is less clear. To produce a more comprehensive picture, we report Stage 2 of the Autism Genome Project genome-wide association study, adding 1301 ASD families and bringing the total to 2705 families analysed (Stages 1 and 2). In addition to evaluating the association of individual single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we also sought evidence that common variants, en masse, might affect the risk. Despite genotyping over a million SNPs covering the genome, no single SNP shows significant association with ASD or selected phenotypes at a genome-wide level. The SNP that achieves the smallest P-value from secondary analyses is rs1718101. It falls in CNTNAP2, a gene previously implicated in susceptibility for ASD. This SNP also shows modest association with age of word/phrase acquisition in ASD subjects, of interest because features of language development are also associated with other variation in CNTNAP2. In contrast, allele scores derived from the transmission of common alleles to Stage 1 cases significantly predict case status in the independent Stage 2 sample. Despite being significant, the variance explained by these allele scores was small (Vm< 1%). Based on results from individual SNPs and their en masse effect on risk, as inferred from the allele score results, it is reasonable to conclude that common variants affect the risk for ASD but their individual effects are modest

ARIA 2016:Care pathways implementing emerging technologies for predictive medicine in rhinitis and asthma across the life cycle

The Allergic Rhinitis and its Impact on Asthma (ARIA) initiative commenced during a World Health Organization workshop in 1999. The initial goals were (1) to propose a new allergic rhinitis classification, (2) to promote the concept of multi-morbidity in asthma and rhinitis and (3) to develop guidelines with all stakeholders that could be used globally for all countries and populations. ARIA-disseminated and implemented in over 70 countries globally-is now focusing on the implementation of emerging technologies for individualized and predictive medicine. MASK [MACVIA (Contre les Maladies Chroniques pour un Vieillissement Actif)-ARIA Sentinel NetworK] uses mobile technology to develop care pathways for the management of rhinitis and asthma by a multi-disciplinary group and by patients themselves. An app (Android and iOS) is available in 20 countries and 15 languages. It uses a visual analogue scale to assess symptom control and work productivity as well as a clinical decision support system. It is associated with an inter-operable tablet for physicians and other health care professionals. The scaling up strategy uses the recommendations of the European Innovation Partnership on Active and Healthy Ageing. The aim of the novel ARIA approach is to provide an active and healthy life to rhinitis sufferers, whatever their age, sex or socio-economic status, in order to reduce health and social inequalities incurred by the disease

Methodology used in studies reporting chronic kidney disease prevalence: a systematic literature review

Background Many publications report the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in the general population. Comparisons across studies are hampered as CKD prevalence estimations are influenced by study population characteristics and laboratory methods. Methods For this systematic review, two researchers independently searched PubMed, MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify all original research articles that were published between 1 January 2003 and 1 November 2014 reporting the prevalence of CKD in the European adult general population. Data on study methodology and reporting of CKD prevalence results were independently extracted by two researchers. Results We identified 82 eligible publications and included 48 publications of individual studies for the data extraction. There was considerable variation in population sample selection. The majority of studies did not report the sampling frame used, and the response ranged from 10 to 87%. With regard to the assessment of kidney function, 67% used a Jaffe assay, whereas 13% used the enzymatic assay for creatinine determination. Isotope dilution mass spectrometry calibration was used in 29%. The CKD-EPI (52%) and MDRD (75%) equations were most often used to estimate glomerular filtration rate (GFR). CKD was defined as estimated GFR (eGFR) <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 in 92% of studies. Urinary markers of CKD were assessed in 60% of the studies. CKD prevalence was reported by sex and age strata in 54 and 50% of the studies, respectively. In publications with a primary objective of reporting CKD prevalence, 39% reported a 95% confidence interval. Conclusions The findings from this systematic review showed considerable variation in methods for sampling the general population and assessment of kidney function across studies reporting CKD prevalence. These results are utilized to provide recommendations to help optimize both the design and the reporting of future CKD prevalence studies, which will enhance comparability of study result

Reconstruction of primary vertices at the ATLAS experiment in Run 1 proton–proton collisions at the LHC

This paper presents the method and performance of primary vertex reconstruction in proton–proton collision data recorded by the ATLAS experiment during Run 1 of the LHC. The studies presented focus on data taken during 2012 at a centre-of-mass energy of √s=8 TeV. The performance has been measured as a function of the number of interactions per bunch crossing over a wide range, from one to seventy. The measurement of the position and size of the luminous region and its use as a constraint to improve the primary vertex resolution are discussed. A longitudinal vertex position resolution of about 30μm is achieved for events with high multiplicity of reconstructed tracks. The transverse position resolution is better than 20μm and is dominated by the precision on the size of the luminous region. An analytical model is proposed to describe the primary vertex reconstruction efficiency as a function of the number of interactions per bunch crossing and of the longitudinal size of the luminous region. Agreement between the data and the predictions of this model is better than 3% up to seventy interactions per bunch crossing

Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer : development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest-namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial-ENTHUSE M1-in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0.791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0.743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3.32, 95% CI 2.39-4.62, p Interpretation Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer.Peer reviewe

Spatiotemporal clustering, social vulnerability and risk of congenital syphilis in northeast Brazil: an ecological study

Background To investigate the spatial distribution of congenital syphilis (CS) and its association to social vulnerability indexes in northeast Brazil. Methods This was an ecological study referring to all cases of CS and CS deaths recorded in the northeast region of Brazil from 2008 to 2015. Data were obtained from three Brazilian information systems. We examined statistical correlations between CS indicators by state and municipality and their socioeconomic and social vulnerability characteristics. We used Bayesian empirical local models to identify fluctuations of the indicators. Spatial statistical tests were used to identify spatial clusters and the municipalities at high risk of CS. Results The incidence of CS ranged from 2.1 cases/1000 live births (LB) in 2008 to 6.9/1000 LB in 2015, with an annual increase of 19.9% (p < 0.001). The mortality coefficient of CS ranged from 2.9/1000 LB in 2008 to 6.5/1000 LB in 2015, resulting in an annual increase of 15.1% (p < 0.001). Nine spatial clusters were identified. Cases of congenital syphilis occurred in well-defined spatiotemporal clusters and in areas with high levels of social vulnerability. Conclusions CS incidence is associated with social vulnerability. CS control programmes should target spatial clusters and populations with high levels of social vulnerability