The Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance Under Inflation and Price-level Targeting

This paper examines the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting monetary policies. The results show that the beneficial effects of forward guidance increase if a central bank pursues price-level targeting instead of inflation targeting. Output and inflation respond more favorably to forward guidance with price-level targeting than inflation targeting. A monetary policy rule that aggressively reacts to inflation and includes interest rate inertia narrows the performance gap between the two policy regimes. However, forward guidance with price-level targeting is still preferred to forward guidance with inflation targeting after performing multiple robustness checks

NTP v. RIM: The Diverging Law Between System and Method Claim Infringement

[Excerpt] “Almost thirty years after the landmark decision of Decca Ltd. v. United States, the Federal Circuit had an opportunity to reevaluate the extraterritorial limits of U.S. patent law in NTP, Inc. v. Research in Motion, Ltd. After withdrawing its initial opinion (“NTP I”) and issuing a second opinion (“NTP II”), the court held that a system having a component located outside U.S. jurisdiction could be subject to U.S. patent law. The court held as a matter of law, however, that a process in which a step is performed outside U.S. jurisdiction could not be subject to U.S. patent law. In NTP I and NTP II, the infringing system included a component located in Canada. Ironically, that infringing system was the platform on which the non-infringing process operated. The court’s justification for this result was based on the “collective” nature of systems compared to the “individual” nature of processes. This article analyzes the court’s decision and recommends an alternative holding in order to unify “system” and process infringement law. Additionally, this article examines the history of “system” claims to determine whether their current use as “machine” claims is consistent with their historical use. Given its historical context, this article then evaluates whether a preamble including a “system” should limit a claim’s scope under the current law. Finally, this article evaluates the effect of the court’s decision on communications and secondary-use patents.

(WP 2016-06) The Effectiveness of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Inflation and Price-Level Targeting

This paper examines the effectiveness of central bank forward guidance under inflation and price-level targeting monetary policies. The results show that the attenuation of the effects of forward guidance can be solved if a central bank switches from inflation targeting to price-level targeting. Output and inflation respond more favorably to forward guidance with price-level targeting than inflation targeting. A monetary policy rule that aggressively reacts to inflation and includes interest rate inertia narrows the performance gap between the two policy regimes. However, forward guidance with price-level targeting is still preferred to forward guidance with inflation targeting after performing multiple robustness checks

(WP 2016-02) The Limits of Central Bank Forward Guidance under Learning

Central bank forward guidance emerged as a pertinent tool for monetary policymakers since the Great Recession. Nevertheless, the effects of forward guidance remain unclear. This paper investigates the effectiveness of forward guidance while relaxing two standard macroeconomic assumptions: rational expectations and frictionless financial markets. Agents forecast future macroeconomic variables via either the rational expectations hypothesis or a more plausible theory of expectations formation called adaptive learning. A standard Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model is extended to include the financial accelerator mechanism. The results show that the addition of financial frictions amplifies the differences between rational expectations and adaptive learning to forward guidance. The macroeconomic variables are overall more responsive to forward guidance under rational expectations than under adaptive learning. During a period of economic crisis (e.g. a recession), output under rational expectations displays more favorable responses to forward guidance than under adaptive learning. These differences are exacerbated when compared to a similar analysis without financial frictions. Thus, monetary policymakers should consider the way in which expectations and credit frictions are modeled when examining the effects of forward guidance

Comparative analysis of the seismic hazard of Central China

Seismic hazard assessment is globally recognised as a tool in identifying levels of earthquake ground shaking within an area. However, methodologies for seismic hazard calculation are wide ranging and produce variations in results and maps. As a case study seismic hazard and results from Gumbel’s method of extremes are determined for the area of greatest intraplate seismicity in China covering the provinces of Gansu, Sichuan and Yunnan. This area is termed the North-South Seismic Zone. Devastating earthquakes in this zone include the 8.4 MS 1920 Haiyuan earthquake causing over 220,000 deaths and the 1996 Lijiang earthquake. Most recently the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake caused over 69,000 deaths with more than 18,000 people missing. These results and seismic hazard maps are compared with the publicly available maps of GSHAP and the national seismic hazard map of China at the level of 10% probability of exceedance in a 50 year period. The distributions of high and low hazard areas are similar and adjacent to the major thrust and strike-slip faults dominating in this area. However, results from the Gumbel method of extremes suggest that the hazard levels within certain areas are slightly different compared to the other two models. This is primarily because the Gumbel methodology is based on determining hazard from earthquakes that have already taken place whereas the other two models determine maximum hazard levels in areas which may exhibit no previous strong hazard. Additionally the Chinese national hazard map does not indicate levels of ground shaking intensity greater than IX in detail, whereas such zones are identified using the extreme value method. This work should be used to strengthen the seismic hazard analysis of this area of China

Using eSkel to Implement the Multiple Baseline Stereo Application

We give an overview of the Edinburgh Skeleton Library eSkel, a structured parallel programming library which offers a range of skeletal parallel programming constructs to the C/MPI programmer. Then we illustrate the efficacy of such a high level approach through an application of multiple baseline stereo. We describe the application and show different ways to introduce parallelism using algorithmic skeletons. Some performance results will be reported

The impact of sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei on the British fox Vulpes vulpes population

1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol’s foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994