85 research outputs found

    Large deviations for i.i.d. replications of the total progeny of a Galton--Watson process

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    The Galton--Watson process is the simplest example of a branching process. The relationship between the offspring distribution, and, when the extinction occurs almost surely, the distribution of the total progeny is well known. In this paper, we illustrate the relationship between these two distributions when we consider the large deviation rate function (provided by Cram\'{e}r's theorem) for empirical means of i.i.d. random variables. We also consider the case with a random initial population. In the final part, we present large deviation results for sequences of estimators of the offspring mean based on i.i.d. replications of total progeny.Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.15559/16-VMSTA72 in the Modern Stochastics: Theory and Applications (https://www.i-journals.org/vtxpp/VMSTA) by VTeX (http://www.vtex.lt/

    Multivariate fractional Poisson processes and compound sums

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    In this paper we present multivariate space-time fractional Poisson processes by considering common random time-changes of a (finite-dimensional) vector of independent classical (non-fractional) Poisson processes. In some cases we also consider compound processes. We obtain some equations in terms of some suitable fractional derivatives and fractional difference operators, which provides the extension of known equations for the univariate processes.Comment: 19 pages Keywords: conditional independence, Fox-Wright function, fractional differential equations, random time-chang

    Large deviations for fractional Poisson processes

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    We prove large deviation principles for two versions of fractional Poisson processes. Firstly we consider the main version which is a renewal process; we also present large deviation estimates for the ruin probabilities of an insurance model with constant premium rate, i.i.d. light tail claim sizes, and a fractional Poisson claim number process. We conclude with the alternative version where all the random variables are weighted Poisson distributed. Keywords: Mittag Leffler function; renewal process; random time ch

    Asymptotic results for random flights

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    The random flights are (continuous time) random walkswith finite velocity. Often, these models describe the stochastic motions arising in biology. In this paper we study the large time asymptotic behavior of random flights. We prove the large deviation principle for conditional laws given the number of the changes of direction, and for the non-conditional laws of some standard random flights.Comment: 3 figure

    Correlated fractional counting processes on a finite time interval

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    We present some correlated fractional counting processes on a finite time interval. This will be done by considering a slight generalization of the processes in Borges et al. (2012). The main case concerns a class of space-time fractional Poisson processes and, when the correlation parameter is equal to zero, the univariate distributions coincide with the ones of the space-time fractional Poisson process in Orsingher and Polito (2012). On the other hand, when we consider the time fractional Poisson process, the multivariate finite dimensional distributions are different from the ones presented for the renewal process in Politi et al. (2011). Another case concerns a class of fractional negative binomial processes

    Large deviations for risk measures in finite mixture models

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    Due to their heterogeneity, insurance risks can be properly described as a mixture of different fixed models, where the weights assigned to each model may be estimated empirically from a sample of available data. If a risk measure is evaluated on the estimated mixture instead of the (unknown) true one, then it is important to investigate the committed error. In this paper we study the asymptotic behaviour of estimated risk measures, as the data sample size tends to infinity, in the fashion of large deviations. We obtain large deviation results by applying the contraction principle, and the rate functions are given by a suitable variational formula; explicit expressions are available for mixtures of two models. Finally, our results are applied to the most common risk measures, namely the quantiles, the Expected Shortfall and the shortfall risk measures

    Random time-change with inverses of multivariate subordinators: governing equations and fractional dynamics

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    It is well-known that compositions of Markov processes with inverse subordinators are governed by integro-differential equations of generalized fractional type. This kind of processes are of wide interest in statistical physics as they are connected to anomalous diffusions. In this paper we consider a generalization; more precisely we mean componentwise compositions of Rd\mathbb{R}^d-valued Markov processes with the components of an independent multivariate inverse subordinator. As a possible application, we present a model of anomalous diffusion in anisotropic medium, which is obtained as a weak limit of suitable continuous-time random walks.Comment: 24 page

    Fractional discrete processes: compound and mixed Poisson representations

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    We consider two fractional versions of a family of nonnegative integer valued processes. We prove that their probability mass functions solve fractional Kolmogorov forward equations, and we show the overdispersion of these processes. As particular examples in this family, we can define fractional versions of some processes in the literature as the Polya-Aeppli, the Poisson Inverse Gaussian and the Negative Binomial. We also define and study some more general fractional versions with two fractional parameters.Comment: 16 pages; 1 figur

    Some examples of non-central moderate deviations for sequences of real random variables

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    The term \emph{moderate deviations} is often used in the literature to mean a class of large deviation principles that, in some sense, fill the gap between a convergence in probability to zero (governed by a large deviation principle) and a weak convergence to a centered Normal distribution. In this paper we present some examples of classes of large deviation principles of this kind, but the involved random variables converge weakly to Gumbel, exponential and Laplace distributions.Comment: 25 page

    Alternative Forms of Compound Fractional Poisson Processes

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    We study here different fractional versions of the compound Poisson process. The fractionality is introduced in the counting process representing the number of jumps as well as in the density of the jumps themselves. The corresponding distributions are obtained explicitly and proved to be solution of fractional equations of order less than one. Only in the final case treated in this paper, where the number of jumps is given by the fractional-difference Poisson process defined in Orsingher and Polito (2012), we have a fractional driving equation, with respect to the time argument, with order greater than one. Moreover, in this case, the compound Poisson process is Markovian and this is also true for the corresponding limiting process. All the processes considered here are proved to be compositions of continuous time random walks with stable processes (or inverse stable subordinators). These subordinating relationships hold, not only in the limit, but also in the finite domain. In some cases the densities satisfy master equations which are the fractional analogues of the well-known Kolmogorov one
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