The Changing Amazon Hydrological Cycle—Inferences From Over 200 Years of Tree‐Ring Oxygen Isotope Data

Changes to the Amazon hydrological cycle have important consequences for world's largest tropical forest, and the biodiversity it contains. However, a scarcity of long-term climate data in the region makes it hard to contextualize recent observed changes in Amazon hydrology. Here, we explore to what extent tree-ring oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) chronologies can inform us about hydrological changes in the Amazon over the past two centuries. Two δ18OTR records from northern Bolivia and the Ecuadorian Andes are presented. The Ecuador record spans 1799–2012 (n = 16 trees) and the Bolivia record spans 1860–2014 (n = 32 trees), making them the longest δ18OTR records from the Amazon, and among the most highly-replicated δ18OTR records from the tropics to date. The two chronologies correlate well at interannual and decadal timescales, despite coming from sites more than 1,500 km apart. Both δ18OTR records are strongly related to interannual variation in Amazon River discharge measured at Óbidos, and accumulated upwind precipitation, suggesting a common climatic driver. In both records a strong increase in δ18OTR was observed up until approximately 1950, consistent with positive trends in the few other existing δ18O proxy records from across the Amazon. Considering all possible drivers of this long-term increase, a reduction in rainout fraction over the basin driven by rising sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic is suggested as the most likely cause. The upward trend in δ18OTR reverses over the past 1–2 decades, consistent with the observed strengthening of the Amazon hydrological cycle since approximately 1990

Pervasive gaps in Amazonian ecological research

Biodiversity loss is one of the main challenges of our time,1,2 and attempts to address it require a clear understanding of how ecological communities respond to environmental change across time and space.3,4 While the increasing availability of global databases on ecological communities has advanced our knowledge of biodiversity sensitivity to environmental changes,5,6,7 vast areas of the tropics remain understudied.8,9,10,11 In the American tropics, Amazonia stands out as the world's most diverse rainforest and the primary source of Neotropical biodiversity,12 but it remains among the least known forests in America and is often underrepresented in biodiversity databases.13,14,15 To worsen this situation, human-induced modifications16,17 may eliminate pieces of the Amazon's biodiversity puzzle before we can use them to understand how ecological communities are responding. To increase generalization and applicability of biodiversity knowledge,18,19 it is thus crucial to reduce biases in ecological research, particularly in regions projected to face the most pronounced environmental changes. We integrate ecological community metadata of 7,694 sampling sites for multiple organism groups in a machine learning model framework to map the research probability across the Brazilian Amazonia, while identifying the region's vulnerability to environmental change. 15%–18% of the most neglected areas in ecological research are expected to experience severe climate or land use changes by 2050. This means that unless we take immediate action, we will not be able to establish their current status, much less monitor how it is changing and what is being lost

Climate variability of the southern Amazon inferred by a multi-proxy tree-ring approach using <i>Cedrela fissilis</i> Vell

The analysis of climate variability and development of reconstructions based on tree-ring records in tropical forests have been increasing in recent decades. In the Amazon region, ring width and stable isotope long-term chronologies have been used for climatic studies, however little is known about the potential of wood traits such as density and chemical concentrations. In this study, we used well-dated rings of Cedrela fissilis Vell. fromthe drought-prone southern Amazon basin to assess the potential of using inter-annual variations of annually-resolved ring width, wood density,stable oxygen isotope (δ18OTR) measured in tree-ring cellulose and concentration of Sulfur (STR) and Calcium (CaTR) in xylem cells to study climate variability. During wet years, Cedrela fissilis produced wider and denser rings with higher CaTR and lower STR, as well as depleted δ18OTR values. During dry years, a wider range of responses was observed in growth, density and STR, while lower CaTR and enriched δ18OTR values were found. The annual centennial chronologies spanning from 1835 to 2018 showed good calibration skills for reconstructing local precipitation, evapotranspiration (P-PET), Amazon-wide rainfall, as well as climate modes related to sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies such as El Niño South Oscillation (ENSO), Tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA), and the Western Hemisphere Warm Pool (WHWP) oscillations. CaTR explained 42 % of the variance of local precipitation (1975–2018), RW explained 30 % of the P-PET variance (1975–2018), while δ18OTR explained 60 % and 57 % of the variance of Amazon rainfall (1960–2018) and El Niño 3.4 (1920–2018), respectively. Our results show that a multi-proxy tropical tree-ring approach can be used for high-reliable reconstructions of climate variability over Amazon basin at inter-annual and multidecadal time scales.Fil: Ortega Rodriguez, Daigard Ricardo. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz; BrasilFil: Sánchez Salguero, Raúl. Universidad Pablo de Olavide.; EspañaFil: Hevia, Andrea. Universidad Pablo de Olavide.; EspañaFil: Granato Souza, Daniela. University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Cintra, Bruno B. L.. Universidade de Sao Paulo; BrasilFil: Hornink, Bruna. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz; BrasilFil: Andreu Hayles, Laia. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Assis Pereira, Gabriel. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz; BrasilFil: Roig Junent, Fidel Alejandro. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Provincia de Mendoza. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales. Universidad Nacional de Cuyo. Instituto Argentino de Nivología, Glaciología y Ciencias Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Tomazello Filho, Mario. Universidade do Sao Paulo. Escola Superior de Agricultura Luiz de Queiroz; Brasi